Thursday, October 16, 2014

2014 NFL Survivor: Week 7


Quite a few eliminations last week on the Seahawks and Bengals, and the Chargers were pretty close to making it a Week 6 #bloodBATH. Raiders tho. SRs from Pinny, consensus numbers from OFP:

New England (vs. NY Jets; SR 8.03, OFP 31.4%)

TNF, so my best guess is the Pats' popularity ends up somewhere around 25%. That gives them a pretty strong SR/pop combination, as New England is the biggest favorite of the week by a decent margin.

Normally this is where I'd worry about burning NE and wasting all their FV, but for once I don't think that's too much of an issue, both due to Belichick & Co. not having as strong of a team this year, and no more particularly easy home games until the Bills in W17. I think the Pats are an excellent option this week.

Seattle (at St. Louis, SR 7.29, OFP% 19.6%)

Taking the Seahawks on the road when they're banged up and fairly popular does not seem optimal.

Baltimore (vs. Atlanta, SR 7.29, OFP% 14.2%)

A bit too popular, and still a lot of FV with home games against the Titans and Jags.

Cleveland (at Jacksonville; SR 6.91, OFP% 8.6%)

What a world. Not a great SR/pop combo though, and the Browns host the Raiders and Bucs the next two weeks.

Green Bay (vs. Carolina; SR 7.22, OFP% 7.4%)

Not too bad, but I'd rather use the Pats, or one of the inferior teams below that has a similar SR/pop combo.

Dallas (vs. NY Giants; SR 7.22, OFP% 5.5%)

I don't like the Cowboys as much as the Pats this week, but they compare at least decently to everyone else. The biggest issue with taking Dallas here would be not having them available in Week 10 at JAX, although I think they're going to end up being really popular in that matchup, especially after last week's win.

Arizona (at Oakland; SR 6.27, OFP% 4.4%)

SR not high enough.

Buffalo (vs. Minnesota; SR 7.05, OFP% 3.9%)

This looks strong. It would be nice to have the Bills when they host the Jets in Week 12, but there doesn't look to be a shortage of options that week.

Chicago (vs. Miami; SR 6.22, OFP% 1.8%)

SR not high enough.

Washington (vs. Tennessee; SR 6.94, OFP% 1.7%)

The Redskins could end up being a solid option if Clipboard Jesus end up starting again, but I'd wait and see on that.

Friday, October 10, 2014

2014 NFL Survivor: Week 6


Everybody won except the Lions, hooray. SRs from Pinny, consensus numbers from OFP :

Denver (at NY Jets; SR 7.80, OFP 24.7%)
Seattle (vs. Dallas; SR 7.71, OFP 20.9%)

Both of these options have solid SR/pop combos this week, but you're obviously giving up a ton of future value by taking either one. Unfortunately, there just isn't much to choose from this week. Obviously not ideal to take either of these teams when they're relatively modest favorites, but I could see having to do that in a smaller pool which may not last much longer.

Cincinnati (vs. Carolina; SR 7.18, OFP 19.1%)

Not the best situation here, as the Bengals have been decently popular all week, but their SR has dropped with Green getting hurt. It would also be nice to keep them around, both in general and for when the host the Jags in Week 9.

Tennessee (vs. Jacksonville; SR 6.63, OFP 10.4%)

Would have been a very strong option if Locker had been able to go, but that didn't work out. Even so, that OFP number should come down a bit, which I think will allow them to end up being a decent pick, mostly because they have pretty much no FV.

San Diego (at Oakland; SR 7.45, OFP% 9.2%)

The best non-DEN/SD SR/pop combo of the week, and I don't think it's especially close. The problem is that it looks like the Chargers are going to be an outstanding option when they host the Raiders in Week 11, since they'll be huge faves and so few people will have them left. San Diego is tough to pass up this week, but if your pool is going to survive to Week 11, they're going to be an even better option then.

Arizona (vs. Washington; SR 5.76, OFP% 4.2%)

I'm using the current CRIS line for their SR, but they haven't even narrowed it down to two QBs yet, so who knows. The Cardinals definitely deserve consideration if Palmer somehow plays, but that's about it.

San Francisco (at St. Louis; SR 6.25, OFP% 4.0%)
Green Bay (at Miami; SR 5.88, OFP% 1.9%)

No.

Baltimore (at Tampa Bay; SR 6.37, OFP% 1.8%)
Atlanta (vs. Chicago; SR 6.03, OFP% 0.6%)

Decent filler, but wouldn't take either of these over, say, the Titans.

This Double Fortnight in Degen Internet (9/13-10/10)


G.O.A.T. of the Double Fortnight

Phillip Dennis Ivey Jr.

W.O.A.T. of the Double Fortnight

All of these clowns siding with the casino in the Ivey case. My word.

Oh, and Randy, obv. This one in particular cracked me up.


Tweet of the Double Fortnight

The Rest

So far, so good on #tuleyCHAT. Another one at 1pm ET today, don't miss it!

Rovell struggles with numbers.

An interesting (IMO) interview with Ben Affleck about counting cards, fame, and other stuff. He also did the right thing.

Cvillian Dan Hodes is famous now.

The #shraps have been all over the Duchess of Cambridge having twins.

#tbt that time Keg Sneggs and T33D made up a five-point line move.

Speaking of T&&D, he wrote a couple blog posts exposing just how clueless he is, then took last week off for a very #shrap reason.


Another Funny Tweet of the Double Fortnight

Thursday, October 2, 2014

2014 NFL Survivor: Week 5


The Bucs did it. Uneventful W4 otherwise, unless you chased some of that late Falcons steam. SRs from Pinny, consensus numbers from OFP :

New Orleans (vs. Tampa Bay; SR 8.10, OFP 30.6%)

The biggest favorite of the week is also the most popular selection, although not by an unreasonable margin. Which means the Saints aren't a bad option from a SR/pop perspective, although they're nothing to write home about on that front either. 

A difficult upcoming home schedule (vs. GB, SF, CIN) means New Orleans doesn't have much future value until the last quarter of the season. Hard to know what the Panthers and Falcons will look like 2+ months from now, but I don't really see any reason to burn the Saints now and not even have that option.

Green Bay (vs. Minnesota; SR 7.72, OFP% 24.8%)

Not much to like here even if you figure the Packers' OFP% drops to somewhere in the range of 15%-18% by Sunday, since they're only favored by 7.5 right now and have a decent amount of future value. Only thing that could really change that assessment is a significant improvement in SR between now and kickoff tonight.

Detroit (vs. Buffalo; SR 7.35, OFP% 14.0%)

Pretty mediocre SR/pop combo, and the Lions still host the Dolphins, Bucs and Vikings in the second half of the season.

Philadelphia (vs. St. Louis; SR 7.29, OFP% 8.2%)

Not too popular, a solid SR, and without an overwhelming amount of future value, the Eagles look like a decent option here. It would be nice to have Philly when they host the Titans in W12, but I don't think it's worth keeping them around just for that.

Seattle (at Washington; SR 7.41, OFP% 6.7%)

The Seahawks have too much future value to burn them on the road here.

Pittsburgh (at Jacksonville; SR 7.04, OFP% 5.6%)

Hate to say this, but actually not a terrible option. Certainly not an optimal SR, but not very popular and I don't know when else you'd take Pittsburgh, other than when the host the Texans in W7. I'd prefer the Eagles at this point, but the Steelers are interesting if you're really trying to preserve FV for whatever reason.

San Diego (vs. NY Jets; SR 7.35, OFP% 3.8%)

Not bad, but would rather save San Diego for W11 (home vs. OAK), especially since so many people burned them last week.

Denver (vs. Arizona; SR 7.60, OFP% 3.3%)

The best SR/pop combination of the week by a decent margin. Obviously giving up a ton of FV though, and I'd worry about the Broncos' popularity increasing between now and Sunday, since it looks like Palmer isn't going to play.

Dallas (vs. Houston; SR 7.26, OFP% 1.2%)

I think this is a good one. This line has increase throughout the week, and almost nobody is taking them. The Cowboys do play at Jacksonville in Week 10, and could potentially be a decent alternative to the painfully obvious pick that week (DEN@OAK), but I suspect Dallas will be fairly popular themselves.

San Francisco (vs. Kansas City; SR 7.00, OFP% 0.8%)

Don't see any sense in wasting the 49ers here.

NY Giants (vs. Atlanta; SR 6.55, OFP% 0.6%)

Giving up too much SR, might as well just take the Steelers if you want to maximize FV.

Wednesday, September 24, 2014

2014 NFL Survivor: Week 4


Week 3 was chalky, with the seven most popular teams all winning. Hopefully folks didn't pay too much attention and take Miami when Charles was ruled out and they got bet. SRs from Pinny, consensus numbers from OFP (now with new and improved link!):

San Diego (vs. Jacksonville; SR 8.73, OFP 59.2%)

Too popular (thanks, David). The Chargers should be an excellent option in Week 11, when they host the Raiders and will have been used by most entries. Unless they lose this week, which would be fine as well.

Pittsburgh (vs. Tampa Bay; SR 7.58, OFP% 19.5%)
Indianapolis (vs. Tennessee; SR 7.50, OFP% 16.1%)

These two are very similar. And I think would be decent options in a normal week, but this is not a normal week.

Doing some #math, the three most popular teams this week are being taken on just under 95% of entries. Doing no #research, I'm going to say that this is uncommon. And this weird dynamic makes it even more advantageous than usual to go against the crowd.

Obviously, it's unlikely that all three of these teams lose (about 0.8%). But two of them might go down (another ~10%), and it wouldn't be surprising at all if one of them lost (another ~40%). If you take one of these teams, you're removing any chance of enjoying the benefits of the bloodbath if they go 0-3, and taking a good chunk out of the # of times where you're still in when 35%+ of the pool gets knocked out. This is, of course, the whole point of avoiding popular teams every week, but it becomes even more important when so many entries are concentrated between just a few teams.

(TL;DR: numberFIRE is very bad at math, weeeeeeee.)

Atlanta (at Minnesota; SR 5.87, OFP% 1.5%)

lol no.

Washington (vs. NY Giants; SR 6.42, OFP% 0.9%)

This is more like it. The Redskins have quite a bit going on injury-wise, so that's worth monitoring between now and kickoff on Thursday evening, and Washington does have some FV (vs. TEN, TB, and STL), but they look like a solid option here.

Miami (vs. Oakland in London; SR 6.47, OFP% 0.7%)

If you didn't know better you'd think this game was in Oakland, just because of how it's listed everywhere, so that is helping keep the Dolphins' popularity way down here. Miami currently appears to be a bit stronger of a choice than the Redskins in all three facets; most importantly, I don't think they have a game down the road that sets up as well as when the Redskins host the Bucs in Week 11.

San Francisco (vs. Philadelphia; SR 6.96, OFP% 0.5%)

Easily the best SR/pop combination of the week. The only problem is that if their SR is this high against the Eagles, what's it going to look like when they host the Chiefs, Rams, Redskins, and Chargers? In pools that are likely to be going for awhile, I think it makes sense to burn the Redskins/Dolphins now, and save the 49ers for the second half of the season. The Niners might be operating at something closer to full strength by that point as well.

Baltimore (vs. Carolina; SR 6.26, OFP% 0.3%)

Comparable to WAS and MIA, if slightly worse. The Ravens host the Jags in Week 15.

Houston (vs. Buffalo; SR 6.16, OFP% 0.3%)

Some potential here if Foster ends up playing and the Texans' SR improves, but that's about it.

Thursday, September 18, 2014

The Long Con of @RJinVegas: "Repackaging" Info


RJ Bell is the founder and CEO of Pregame.com, a sports betting website that includes forums, odds, contests, and picks (both of the free and for purchase varieties). It is one of the most successful sites of its kind, in no small part due to the popularity of Bell, who has accumulated over 80K Twitter followers and established himself as the mainstream media's go-to "expert" for stories involving gambling on sports.

An American success story if there every was one. That's only one side of it, though. In some corners of the internet (including this blog), there is a feeling that Bell has not found his success in a legitimate way. This is the 12th post in a series detailing the reasoning behind that particular feeling. If you'd like to start at the beginning, it's here.

As noted, Bell tweets out a lot of annoying/worthless/false nonsense. But nothing is more frustrating than when he takes other people's (actually interesting!) info and makes it his own. One recent example:

Wednesday, September 17, 2014

2014 NFL Survivor: Week 3


Won't be taking the Bucs this week, at least. Between those clowns(/silly runoff rules), the Saints and the 49ers, about 30% of OFP was eliminated in Week 2. SRs from Pinny, consensus numbers from OFP:

New England (vs. Oakland; SR 9.05, OFP 58.2%)

First time this year that a majority of entries have been on one team, although we'll see where this one ends up on Sunday morning. The Pats are indeed huge faves, but between their popularity this week and value in the future, taking them here seems unnecessary.

New Orleans (vs. Minnesota; SR 8.18, OFP 18.1%)

No real market for this one as of yet, so just using the 5Dimes ML for now. This is a solid option, my only concern is that the Saints' OFP% will continue to rise throughout the week now that Peterson is out (and then end up being even higher in pools where nobody actually submitted their pick on Mon/Tues). New Orleans does have a decent amount of FV, with home games against the Bucs, Ravens, Panthers, and Falcons. (Note: The ratings being used to come up with the future Saints lines here seem problematic.)

Atlanta (vs. Tampa Bay; SR 7.22, OFP% 8.0%)

This is an interesting option compared to New Orleans, in that the Saints' popularity is on the rise, while the Falcons should end up lower than this since they're playing on Thursday. The Falcons host the Browns in Week 12, but don't have much FV overall, so it'd be nice to burn them here if that ends up being reasonable.

Indianapolis (at Jacksonville; SR 7.26, OFP% 7.3%)

A mediocre option this week, and the Colts still have home games against the Titans, Jags, and Redskins.

Cincinnati (vs. Tennessee; SR 7.27, OFP% 4.4%)

A better option than the Colts this week for obvious reasons, but also more tempting to save, as the Bengals host the Jags in W9 and the Browns in W10.

Philadelphia (vs. Washington; SR 7.17, OFP% 1.3%)

Another solid one, with almost nobody taking the Eagles this week. It would be nice to keep Philly around, since they have a fairly easy home schedule (notably STL, NYG, TEN, DAL) and so many folks already used them in W1, but this looks like a good option.

Dallas (at St. Louis; SR 5.15, OFP% 0.6%)

No.

Miami (vs. Kansas City; SR 6.67, OFP % 0.4%)

Not bad, especially for diversification purposes, but doesn't compare well with Atlanta if you want to take a team with minimal FV.