Friday, October 24, 2014

This Double Fortnight in Degen Internet (10/11-10/24)


G.O.A.T. of the Fortnight

None.

W.O.A.T. of the Fortnight

The Big Lead Editor in Chief, and RJ Bell enabler, Jason McIntyre.

Thursday, October 23, 2014

2014 NFL Survivor: Week 8


Another solid week of knockouts, mostly thanks to the Rams and #teamJAGS. SRs from Pinny, consensus numbers from OFP:

Dallas (vs. Washington; SR 8.13, OFP 48.7%)

Way too popular. See you in Week 10, most likely.

Kansas City (vs. St. Louis; SR 7.61, OFP% 17.1%)

Not a bad SR/pop combo, but the Chiefs actually have a decent amount of FV, hosting the Jets next week and then with two games against the Raiders down the stretch.

Cleveland (vs. Oakland; SR 7.29, OFP% 14.1%)

Similar to, if a bit worse than, the Chiefs when just looking at this week's variables. I would slightly prefer the Browns since they don't really have any future value after next week's home game against the Bucs.

Miami (at Jacksonville; SR 7.11, OFP% 10.0%)

Pretty mediocre all around, although not terrible. The Dolphins do still host the Bills next month, and then the Vikings and Jets in the last two weeks of the season.

Denver (vs. San Diego; SR 7.89, OFP% 3.6%)

TNF so we can expect their popularity to drop a bit by Sunday. The Broncos have far and away the best SR/pop combo of the week, but that's not going to be the last time you can say that this season. Denver is probably going to be an obscenely good option in Weeks 10 and 14, but if you still have the Cowboys and Packers available for those two respective weeks, I could see pulling the trigger here.

New England (vs. Chicago; SR 6.94, OFP% 2.0%)

The Pats actually look like a solid option here if you haven't taken them yet, as they have the second-best SR/pop combo of the week and very little FV.

Seattle (at Carolina; SR 6.81, OFP% 1.0%)

Wouldn't burn the Seahawks here. Seattle hosts the Raiders next week, although we'll see how absurdly popular that ends up being, especially since the Seahawks have lost in their two most popular weeks this season.

Detroit (vs. Atlanta in London; SR 6.49, OFP% 0.9%)

Some potential here if the Lions' SR increases over the next few days due to injury news.

The Long Con of @RJinVegas: #TERNDZ (Part Two)


RJ Bell is the founder and CEO of Pregame.com, a sports betting website that includes forums, odds, contests, and picks (both of the free and for purchase varieties). It is one of the most successful sites of its kind, in no small part due to the popularity of Bell, who has accumulated over 80K Twitter followers and established himself as the mainstream media's go-to "expert" for stories involving gambling on sports.

An American success story if there every was one. That's only one side of it, though. In some corners of the internet (including this blog), there is a feeling that Bell has not found his success in a legitimate way. This is the 13th post in a series detailing the reasoning behind that particular feeling. If you'd like to start at the beginning, it's here.

Last week, some folks disagreed with each other on the internet. It started with an exchange between our protagonist and ESPN MLB writer/analyst Keith Law:

Thursday, October 16, 2014

2014 NFL Survivor: Week 7


Quite a few eliminations last week on the Seahawks and Bengals, and the Chargers were pretty close to making it a Week 6 #bloodBATH. Raiders tho. SRs from Pinny, consensus numbers from OFP:

New England (vs. NY Jets; SR 8.03, OFP 31.4%)

TNF, so my best guess is the Pats' popularity ends up somewhere around 25%. That gives them a pretty strong SR/pop combination, as New England is the biggest favorite of the week by a decent margin.

Normally this is where I'd worry about burning NE and wasting all their FV, but for once I don't think that's too much of an issue, both due to Belichick & Co. not having as strong of a team this year, and no more particularly easy home games until the Bills in W17. I think the Pats are an excellent option this week.

Seattle (at St. Louis, SR 7.29, OFP% 19.6%)

Taking the Seahawks on the road when they're banged up and fairly popular does not seem optimal.

Baltimore (vs. Atlanta, SR 7.29, OFP% 14.2%)

A bit too popular, and still a lot of FV with home games against the Titans and Jags.

Cleveland (at Jacksonville; SR 6.91, OFP% 8.6%)

What a world. Not a great SR/pop combo though, and the Browns host the Raiders and Bucs the next two weeks.

Green Bay (vs. Carolina; SR 7.22, OFP% 7.4%)

Not too bad, but I'd rather use the Pats, or one of the inferior teams below that has a similar SR/pop combo.

Dallas (vs. NY Giants; SR 7.22, OFP% 5.5%)

I don't like the Cowboys as much as the Pats this week, but they compare at least decently to everyone else. The biggest issue with taking Dallas here would be not having them available in Week 10 at JAX, although I think they're going to end up being really popular in that matchup, especially after last week's win.

Arizona (at Oakland; SR 6.27, OFP% 4.4%)

SR not high enough.

Buffalo (vs. Minnesota; SR 7.05, OFP% 3.9%)

This looks strong. It would be nice to have the Bills when they host the Jets in Week 12, but there doesn't look to be a shortage of options that week.

Chicago (vs. Miami; SR 6.22, OFP% 1.8%)

SR not high enough.

Washington (vs. Tennessee; SR 6.94, OFP% 1.7%)

The Redskins could end up being a solid option if Clipboard Jesus end up starting again, but I'd wait and see on that.

Friday, October 10, 2014

2014 NFL Survivor: Week 6


Everybody won except the Lions, hooray. SRs from Pinny, consensus numbers from OFP :

Denver (at NY Jets; SR 7.80, OFP 24.7%)
Seattle (vs. Dallas; SR 7.71, OFP 20.9%)

Both of these options have solid SR/pop combos this week, but you're obviously giving up a ton of future value by taking either one. Unfortunately, there just isn't much to choose from this week. Obviously not ideal to take either of these teams when they're relatively modest favorites, but I could see having to do that in a smaller pool which may not last much longer.

Cincinnati (vs. Carolina; SR 7.18, OFP 19.1%)

Not the best situation here, as the Bengals have been decently popular all week, but their SR has dropped with Green getting hurt. It would also be nice to keep them around, both in general and for when the host the Jags in Week 9.

Tennessee (vs. Jacksonville; SR 6.63, OFP 10.4%)

Would have been a very strong option if Locker had been able to go, but that didn't work out. Even so, that OFP number should come down a bit, which I think will allow them to end up being a decent pick, mostly because they have pretty much no FV.

San Diego (at Oakland; SR 7.45, OFP% 9.2%)

The best non-DEN/SD SR/pop combo of the week, and I don't think it's especially close. The problem is that it looks like the Chargers are going to be an outstanding option when they host the Raiders in Week 11, since they'll be huge faves and so few people will have them left. San Diego is tough to pass up this week, but if your pool is going to survive to Week 11, they're going to be an even better option then.

Arizona (vs. Washington; SR 5.76, OFP% 4.2%)

I'm using the current CRIS line for their SR, but they haven't even narrowed it down to two QBs yet, so who knows. The Cardinals definitely deserve consideration if Palmer somehow plays, but that's about it.

San Francisco (at St. Louis; SR 6.25, OFP% 4.0%)
Green Bay (at Miami; SR 5.88, OFP% 1.9%)

No.

Baltimore (at Tampa Bay; SR 6.37, OFP% 1.8%)
Atlanta (vs. Chicago; SR 6.03, OFP% 0.6%)

Decent filler, but wouldn't take either of these over, say, the Titans.

This Double Fortnight in Degen Internet (9/13-10/10)


G.O.A.T. of the Double Fortnight

Phillip Dennis Ivey Jr.

W.O.A.T. of the Double Fortnight

All of these clowns siding with the casino in the Ivey case. My word.

Oh, and Randy, obv. This one in particular cracked me up.


Tweet of the Double Fortnight

The Rest

So far, so good on #tuleyCHAT. Another one at 1pm ET today, don't miss it!

Rovell struggles with numbers.

An interesting (IMO) interview with Ben Affleck about counting cards, fame, and other stuff. He also did the right thing.

Cvillian Dan Hodes is famous now.

The #shraps have been all over the Duchess of Cambridge having twins.

#tbt that time Keg Sneggs and T33D made up a five-point line move.

Speaking of T&&D, he wrote a couple blog posts exposing just how clueless he is, then took last week off for a very #shrap reason.


Another Funny Tweet of the Double Fortnight

Thursday, October 2, 2014

2014 NFL Survivor: Week 5


The Bucs did it. Uneventful W4 otherwise, unless you chased some of that late Falcons steam. SRs from Pinny, consensus numbers from OFP :

New Orleans (vs. Tampa Bay; SR 8.10, OFP 30.6%)

The biggest favorite of the week is also the most popular selection, although not by an unreasonable margin. Which means the Saints aren't a bad option from a SR/pop perspective, although they're nothing to write home about on that front either. 

A difficult upcoming home schedule (vs. GB, SF, CIN) means New Orleans doesn't have much future value until the last quarter of the season. Hard to know what the Panthers and Falcons will look like 2+ months from now, but I don't really see any reason to burn the Saints now and not even have that option.

Green Bay (vs. Minnesota; SR 7.72, OFP% 24.8%)

Not much to like here even if you figure the Packers' OFP% drops to somewhere in the range of 15%-18% by Sunday, since they're only favored by 7.5 right now and have a decent amount of future value. Only thing that could really change that assessment is a significant improvement in SR between now and kickoff tonight.

Detroit (vs. Buffalo; SR 7.35, OFP% 14.0%)

Pretty mediocre SR/pop combo, and the Lions still host the Dolphins, Bucs and Vikings in the second half of the season.

Philadelphia (vs. St. Louis; SR 7.29, OFP% 8.2%)

Not too popular, a solid SR, and without an overwhelming amount of future value, the Eagles look like a decent option here. It would be nice to have Philly when they host the Titans in W12, but I don't think it's worth keeping them around just for that.

Seattle (at Washington; SR 7.41, OFP% 6.7%)

The Seahawks have too much future value to burn them on the road here.

Pittsburgh (at Jacksonville; SR 7.04, OFP% 5.6%)

Hate to say this, but actually not a terrible option. Certainly not an optimal SR, but not very popular and I don't know when else you'd take Pittsburgh, other than when the host the Texans in W7. I'd prefer the Eagles at this point, but the Steelers are interesting if you're really trying to preserve FV for whatever reason.

San Diego (vs. NY Jets; SR 7.35, OFP% 3.8%)

Not bad, but would rather save San Diego for W11 (home vs. OAK), especially since so many people burned them last week.

Denver (vs. Arizona; SR 7.60, OFP% 3.3%)

The best SR/pop combination of the week by a decent margin. Obviously giving up a ton of FV though, and I'd worry about the Broncos' popularity increasing between now and Sunday, since it looks like Palmer isn't going to play.

Dallas (vs. Houston; SR 7.26, OFP% 1.2%)

I think this is a good one. This line has increase throughout the week, and almost nobody is taking them. The Cowboys do play at Jacksonville in Week 10, and could potentially be a decent alternative to the painfully obvious pick that week (DEN@OAK), but I suspect Dallas will be fairly popular themselves.

San Francisco (vs. Kansas City; SR 7.00, OFP% 0.8%)

Don't see any sense in wasting the 49ers here.

NY Giants (vs. Atlanta; SR 6.55, OFP% 0.6%)

Giving up too much SR, might as well just take the Steelers if you want to maximize FV.