Thursday, November 27, 2014

2014 NFL Survivor: Week 13


Very chalky week, with nine of the 10 most popular teams winning. SRs from Pinny, consensus numbers from OFP:

St. Louis (vs. Oakland; SR 7.18, OFP 37.6%)

Absolutely not.

Indianapolis (vs. Washington; SR 8.16, OFP 17.7%)

The Colts look to be the strongest option this week; my only hesitation would be if you need to save them for Week 15 (vs. HOU).

Detroit (vs. Chicago; SR 7.50, OFP 15.8%)

Not as good as the Colts this week but definitely solid, especially after their popularity comes down a bit between now and Sunday. Again, it depends on how the next two weeks are shaping up for your particular entry, as the Lions have home games against the Bucs and Vikings in Weeks 14 and 15.

Houston (vs. Tennessee; SR 7.10, OFP 9.4%)

Could take the Texans here if you don't have or want to save the stronger options. Depending on how long you expect your pool to last, it may be worth keeping them around for W17 (home vs. JAX).

Miami (at NY Jets; SR 7.38, OFP 5.6%)

One of the better SR/pop combos this week, currently behind only IND and another option discussed below. Certainly viable in smaller pools, but the Dolphins close out the season with home games against the Vikings and Jets.

NY Giants (at Jacksonville; SR 5.70, OFP 5.6%)
Cincinnati (at Tampa Bay; SR 6.35, OFP 3.6%)
Arizona (at Atlanta; SR 5.58, OFP 1.0%)

No.

Baltimore (vs. San Diego; SR 7.13, OFP 1.0%)

The best non-Colts pick this week. The only issue here is that if you can save the Ravens for Week 15 (home vs. JAX), you likely want to do that.

Pittsburgh (vs. New Orleans; SR 6.69, OFP 0.8%)

Filler, comparable to the Texans. No especially obvious spot to take the Steelers down the stretch, although they could be an option in Weeks 15-17.

Thursday, November 20, 2014

2014 NFL Survivor: Week 12


Crazy week, which could have really been epic if not for Le'Veon Bell. Even so, we're down to about 2.5% of initial entries:

Wednesday, November 19, 2014

The Long Con of @RJinVegas: #retweetsTHO


RJ Bell is the founder and CEO of Pregame.com, a sports betting website that includes forums, odds, contests, and picks (both of the free and for purchase varieties). It is one of the most successful sites of its kind, in no small part due to the popularity of Bell, who has accumulated over 90K Twitter followers and established himself as the mainstream media's go-to "expert" for stories involving gambling on sports.

An American success story if there every was one. That's only one side of it, though. In some corners of the internet (including this blog), there is a feeling that Bell has not found his success in a legitimate way. This is the 15th post in a series detailing the reasoning behind that particular feeling. If you'd like to start at the beginning, it's here.

We've previously looked at how, beyond everything else, Bell cannot be entrusted with simple reporting. Which shouldn't come as a surprise, since he has little reason to "provide accurate facts" and every incentive to draw attention to his #brand by stretching the truth.

Last week's Florida St.-Miami line gave us another excellent example of his untrustworthiness:

Friday, November 14, 2014

This Fortnight and a Half in Degen Internet (10/25-11/14)


G.O.A.T. of the Fortnight and a Half

Adam Silver.

W.O.A.T. of the Fortnight and a Half

Brian Tuohy, for writing this terrible VICE Sports article in the first place, then responding to a very reasonable critique by basically telling the critic to stop being so damn thorough and well-informed, and finally descending into self-parody/#teamSHILL/I-don't-even-fucking-know.

We also have a #WOAT runner-up, as old friend Aaron Schatz's ATS picks continue to lose at an absolutely incredible rate, while he brags about picking 62% SU winners (favorites have hit at about a 66% rate through Week 10).

Tweet of the Fortnight and a Half

The Rest

Belichick hates #weather.

Fezzik crushes close, except for the part where he doesn't.

College hoops returns, and with it come some improvements to kenpom.com.


#teamJAGS Tweet of the Fortnight and a Half

Concise Yet Convincing Tweet of the Fortnight and a Half

Thursday, November 13, 2014

2014 NFL Survivor: Week 11


Uneventful week. SRs from Pinny, consensus numbers from OFP:

Washington (vs. Tampa Bay; SR 7.56, OFP 30.4%)

Would prefer to avoid this one just due to popularity, unless you're really running low on options.

San Diego (vs. Oakland; SR 8.39, OFP 15.3%)

High SR, reasonable popularity, minimal FV; the Chargers are a great option this week if you have them available.

Pittsburgh (at Tennessee; SR 7.02, OFP 13.7%)

About on par with the Redskins in terms of both SR/pop combo, and lack of any significant post-W11 value.

Denver (at St. Louis; SR 8.05, OFP 11.1%)

This week, if you've already used the Chargers, you're either going to have to give up a bunch of FV, or make a pick with a very mediocre SR/pop combo. I could see burning the Broncos here if you have comparable alternatives in Weeks 12 & 14, although that's a high bar considering how few people will have them available if they survive Shaun Hill's triumphant return.

New Orleans (vs. Cincinnati; SR 7.50, OFP 10.5%)

Not bad, just giving up so much in Weeks 14 (vs. CAR) and 16 (vs. ATL).

Miami (vs. Buffalo; SR 6.64, OFP 8.3%)

TNF, so discount the popularity a bit and I think the Dolphins are very similar to Washington and Pittsburgh.

San Francisco (at NY Giants; SR 6.43, OFP 3.4%)
Chicago (vs. Minnesota; SR 5.98, OFP 2.3%)
Cleveland (vs. Houston, SR 6.14, OFP 2.2%)

Don't see much reason to push the envelop with any of these.

Green Bay (vs. Philadelphia, SR 6.94, OFP 1.7%)

Seems like a waste of all the Packers' FV.

Friday, November 7, 2014

The Long Con of @RJinVegas: #TERNDZ (Part Three)


RJ Bell is the founder and CEO of Pregame.com, a sports betting website that includes forums, odds, contests, and picks (both of the free and for purchase varieties). It is one of the most successful sites of its kind, in no small part due to the popularity of Bell, who has accumulated over 80K Twitter followers and established himself as the mainstream media's go-to "expert" for stories involving gambling on sports.

An American success story if there every was one. That's only one side of it, though. In some corners of the internet (including this blog), there is a feeling that Bell has not found his success in a legitimate way. This is the 14th post in a series detailing the reasoning behind that particular feeling. If you'd like to start at the beginning, it's here.

This man is out of control. From Monday afternoon:

Great info as always. A slight disagreement, though:


Hmm. For some clarity, let's check Covers (excluding Week 9, because "entering this week"):



























Okay, fair enough. If you count the 49ers game as a loss (or even a push), the Chiefs only had five ATS covers coming into the week. Makes sense, as long as you don't...


Oh damn it.

Don't see any getting around this one. RJ is using KC +4.5/5 to make the Colts stat work, and KC +5.5 to claim they've covered seven straight. He was corrected twice along the way, and obviously ignored the haters both times.


Previous Long Con post: #TERNDZ (Part Two)

Thursday, November 6, 2014

2014 NFL Survivor: Week 10


Shrap fumble(s), Colin. SRs from Pinny, consensus numbers from OFP:

Baltimore (vs. Tennessee; SR 8.16, OFP 40.1%)

Too popular. #zachATTACK

Arizona (vs. St. Louis; SR 7.38, OFP 17.3%)

About as strong a SR/pop combo as the Ravens, which is to say "not very".

Denver (at Oakland; SR 8.42, OFP 10.8%)

Biggest favorite of the week by a decent margin, and not too popular. I think the decision of whether to use the Broncos here comes down to how many people are left in your pool, and what your alternate options look like for Weeks 11 & 14.

Seattle (vs. NY Giants; SR 8.03, OFP 9.1%)

The Seahawks are still pretty banged up, so worth seeing what happens with this line either way, but this looks like a good option. Not very popular, and Seattle doesn't have all that much FV until they host the Rams in Week 17.

Dallas (vs. Jacksonville in London; SR N/A, OFP 7.0%)

Wait and see what happens with Romo, although that will obviously affect the Cowboys' popularity as well.

Pittsburgh (at NY Jets; SR 6.70, OFP 6.1%)

Nope.

Cincinnati (vs. Cleveland; SR 7.11, OFP 4.0%)

TNF, so their OFP% should end up a bit lower. Worth considering if you feel the need to save the Broncos and Seahawks.

Green Bay (vs. Chicago; SR 7.46, OFP 3.2%)

Solid SR/pop combo, but the Packers still have a lot of FV.

Philadelphia (vs. Carolina; SR 7.18, OFP 1.0%)

I could see taking the Eagles here if you have an alternate plan for Week 12 (vs. TEN).