Thursday, October 30, 2014
THE #CLOT DID IT. SRs from Pinny, consensus numbers from OFP:
Cincinnati (vs. Jacksonville; SR 8.42, OFP 38.6%)
Nope. Maybe only one #pickSIX from Bortles this week?
Seattle (vs. Oakland; SR 9.29, OFP% 37.5%)
Rather popular, but even so the Seahawks have the best SR/pop combo of the week by quite a bit. Seattle should be a strong option at home against the Giants in Week 10, but after that nothing on their schedule seems all that enticing until W17 (vs. STL). Not an especially exciting pick, but the Seahawks look tough to pass up here as long as you have a decent alternative for next week.
Kansas City (vs. NY Jets; SR 7.96, OFP% 10.5%)
A solid non-SEA option. In larger pools, the Chiefs would certainly be nice to keep around for Week 15 (home vs. #worldsTEAM).
San Francisco (vs. St. Louis; SR 8.22, OFP% 9.7%)
Similar to the Chiefs, although the 49ers' FV is a bit more scattered, with a home game against WAS in W12 and a visit to Oakland in W14.
Cleveland (vs. Tampa Bay; SR 7.25, OFP% 2.4%)
Not giving up much FV with this one, but obviously painful to sacrifice so much SR.
No other teams are above 0.2% in OFP this week, and I'd have a hard time making a case for anyone else myself.
Friday, October 24, 2014
G.O.A.T. of the Fortnight
W.O.A.T. of the Fortnight
The Big Lead Editor in Chief, and RJ Bell enabler, Jason McIntyre.
@AndyGlockner no skin in the game but he had no link to his site or mention of it in that. simple an info tweet (that was accurate)
— Jason McIntyre (@jasonrmcintyre) October 17, 2014
Thursday, October 23, 2014
Another solid week of knockouts, mostly thanks to the Rams and #teamJAGS. SRs from Pinny, consensus numbers from OFP:
Dallas (vs. Washington; SR 8.13, OFP 48.7%)
Way too popular. See you in Week 10, most likely.
Kansas City (vs. St. Louis; SR 7.61, OFP% 17.1%)
Not a bad SR/pop combo, but the Chiefs actually have a decent amount of FV, hosting the Jets next week and then with two games against the Raiders down the stretch.
Cleveland (vs. Oakland; SR 7.29, OFP% 14.1%)
Similar to, if a bit worse than, the Chiefs when just looking at this week's variables. I would slightly prefer the Browns since they don't really have any future value after next week's home game against the Bucs.
Miami (at Jacksonville; SR 7.11, OFP% 10.0%)
Pretty mediocre all around, although not terrible. The Dolphins do still host the Bills next month, and then the Vikings and Jets in the last two weeks of the season.
Denver (vs. San Diego; SR 7.89, OFP% 3.6%)
TNF so we can expect their popularity to drop a bit by Sunday. The Broncos have far and away the best SR/pop combo of the week, but that's not going to be the last time you can say that this season. Denver is probably going to be an obscenely good option in Weeks 10 and 14, but if you still have the Cowboys and Packers available for those two respective weeks, I could see pulling the trigger here.
New England (vs. Chicago; SR 6.94, OFP% 2.0%)
The Pats actually look like a solid option here if you haven't taken them yet, as they have the second-best SR/pop combo of the week and very little FV.
Seattle (at Carolina; SR 6.81, OFP% 1.0%)
Wouldn't burn the Seahawks here. Seattle hosts the Raiders next week, although we'll see how absurdly popular that ends up being, especially since the Seahawks have lost in their two most popular weeks this season.
Detroit (vs. Atlanta in London; SR 6.49, OFP% 0.9%)
Some potential here if the Lions' SR increases over the next few days due to injury news.
RJ Bell is the founder and CEO of Pregame.com, a sports betting website that includes forums, odds, contests, and picks (both of the free and for purchase varieties). It is one of the most successful sites of its kind, in no small part due to the popularity of Bell, who has accumulated over 80K Twitter followers and established himself as the mainstream media's go-to "expert" for stories involving gambling on sports.
An American success story if there every was one. That's only one side of it, though. In some corners of the internet (including this blog), there is a feeling that Bell has not found his success in a legitimate way. This is the 13th post in a series detailing the reasoning behind that particular feeling. If you'd like to start at the beginning, it's here.
Last week, some folks disagreed with each other on the internet. It started with an exchange between our protagonist and ESPN MLB writer/analyst Keith Law:
Thursday, October 16, 2014
Quite a few eliminations last week on the Seahawks and Bengals, and the Chargers were pretty close to making it a Week 6 #bloodBATH. Raiders tho. SRs from Pinny, consensus numbers from OFP:
New England (vs. NY Jets; SR 8.03, OFP 31.4%)
TNF, so my best guess is the Pats' popularity ends up somewhere around 25%. That gives them a pretty strong SR/pop combination, as New England is the biggest favorite of the week by a decent margin.
Normally this is where I'd worry about burning NE and wasting all their FV, but for once I don't think that's too much of an issue, both due to Belichick & Co. not having as strong of a team this year, and no more particularly easy home games until the Bills in W17. I think the Pats are an excellent option this week.
Seattle (at St. Louis, SR 7.29, OFP% 19.6%)
Taking the Seahawks on the road when they're banged up and fairly popular does not seem optimal.
Baltimore (vs. Atlanta, SR 7.29, OFP% 14.2%)
A bit too popular, and still a lot of FV with home games against the Titans and Jags.
Cleveland (at Jacksonville; SR 6.91, OFP% 8.6%)
What a world. Not a great SR/pop combo though, and the Browns host the Raiders and Bucs the next two weeks.
Green Bay (vs. Carolina; SR 7.22, OFP% 7.4%)
Not too bad, but I'd rather use the Pats, or one of the inferior teams below that has a similar SR/pop combo.
Dallas (vs. NY Giants; SR 7.22, OFP% 5.5%)
I don't like the Cowboys as much as the Pats this week, but they compare at least decently to everyone else. The biggest issue with taking Dallas here would be not having them available in Week 10 at JAX, although I think they're going to end up being really popular in that matchup, especially after last week's win.
Arizona (at Oakland; SR 6.27, OFP% 4.4%)
SR not high enough.
Buffalo (vs. Minnesota; SR 7.05, OFP% 3.9%)
This looks strong. It would be nice to have the Bills when they host the Jets in Week 12, but there doesn't look to be a shortage of options that week.
Chicago (vs. Miami; SR 6.22, OFP% 1.8%)
SR not high enough.
Washington (vs. Tennessee; SR 6.94, OFP% 1.7%)
The Redskins could end up being a solid option if Clipboard Jesus end up starting again, but I'd wait and see on that.
Friday, October 10, 2014
Everybody won except the Lions, hooray. SRs from Pinny, consensus numbers from OFP :
Denver (at NY Jets; SR 7.80, OFP 24.7%)
Seattle (vs. Dallas; SR 7.71, OFP 20.9%)
Both of these options have solid SR/pop combos this week, but you're obviously giving up a ton of future value by taking either one. Unfortunately, there just isn't much to choose from this week. Obviously not ideal to take either of these teams when they're relatively modest favorites, but I could see having to do that in a smaller pool which may not last much longer.
Cincinnati (vs. Carolina; SR 7.18, OFP 19.1%)
Not the best situation here, as the Bengals have been decently popular all week, but their SR has dropped with Green getting hurt. It would also be nice to keep them around, both in general and for when the host the Jags in Week 9.
Tennessee (vs. Jacksonville; SR 6.63, OFP 10.4%)
Would have been a very strong option if Locker had been able to go, but that didn't work out. Even so, that OFP number should come down a bit, which I think will allow them to end up being a decent pick, mostly because they have pretty much no FV.
San Diego (at Oakland; SR 7.45, OFP% 9.2%)
The best non-DEN/SD SR/pop combo of the week, and I don't think it's especially close. The problem is that it looks like the Chargers are going to be an outstanding option when they host the Raiders in Week 11, since they'll be huge faves and so few people will have them left. San Diego is tough to pass up this week, but if your pool is going to survive to Week 11, they're going to be an even better option then.
Arizona (vs. Washington; SR 5.76, OFP% 4.2%)
I'm using the current CRIS line for their SR, but they haven't even narrowed it down to two QBs yet, so who knows. The Cardinals definitely deserve consideration if Palmer somehow plays, but that's about it.
San Francisco (at St. Louis; SR 6.25, OFP% 4.0%)
Green Bay (at Miami; SR 5.88, OFP% 1.9%)
Baltimore (at Tampa Bay; SR 6.37, OFP% 1.8%)
Atlanta (vs. Chicago; SR 6.03, OFP% 0.6%)
Decent filler, but wouldn't take either of these over, say, the Titans.
G.O.A.T. of the Double Fortnight
Phillip Dennis Ivey Jr.
@DavidPurdum @chrispysask Bad faith claiming cheating when casino itself controls ALL variables (cards/dealer/rules) & Ivey introduces none
— Cizzle (@CizzlingSports) October 9, 2014
@misterquinnbets @DavidPurdum It was a free roll for the casino. If he lost, they'd collect, if he wins they say he cheated and don't pay
— JimmyG_415 (@JimmyG_415) October 8, 2014
W.O.A.T. of the Double Fortnight
All of these clowns siding with the casino in the Ivey case. My word.
Oh, and Randy, obv. This one in particular cracked me up.
Tweet of the Double Fortnight
.@RJinVegas do you expect this #trend to continue all season?
— NotThatTRICKY (@NotThatTRICKY) October 7, 2014
So far, so good on #tuleyCHAT. Another one at 1pm ET today, don't miss it!
Rovell struggles with numbers.
An interesting (IMO) interview with Ben Affleck about counting cards, fame, and other stuff. He also did the right thing.
Cvillian Dan Hodes is famous now.
The #shraps have been all over the Duchess of Cambridge having twins.
#tbt that time Keg Sneggs and T33D made up a five-point line move.
Speaking of T&&D, he wrote a couple blog posts exposing just how clueless he is, then took last week off for a very #shrap reason.
Another Funny Tweet of the Double Fortnight
@therealestDAN @groovinmahoovin @vegasWATCH I am sure all of your intentions are honorable. I hope you get all of this rectified.
— Russell S. Baxter (@BaxFootballGuru) September 25, 2014