Friday, December 19, 2014

This Fortnight in Degen Internet (12/6-12/19)

G.O.A.T. of the Fortnight

Shrap coffee.

W.O.A.T. of the Fortnight

T$$D. Quite a fortnight for him, between tweeting Bama SHPITAL +180 and Bama -3.5/-4 Oregon within two hours of each other, claiming money was "pouring in" on a low limit porp at a stiff book, and generously explaining to us how baseball teams are (and aren't) put together.

Tweets of the Fortnight

Thursday, December 18, 2014

2014 NFL Survivor: Week 16

Stupid contest.

SRs from Pinny, consensus numbers from OFP:

Buffalo (at Oakland; SR 6.90, OFP 23.7%)

Nice, but no thanks.

Miami (vs. Minnesota; SR 7.22, OFP 18.5%)

A more attractive option on the SR front, but still fairly popular and the Dolphins host the Jets next week, so I guess Randall's advice may not have been optimal after all?

Green Bay (at Tampa Bay; SR 8.31, OFP 10.8%)

Only concern here if you've managed to save the Packers through 15 weeks is if you're short on options in W17 (vs. DET).

Philadelphia (at Washington; SR 7.60, OFP 10.1%)

Decent (but not great) all around. The Eagles visit the Giants next week.

New England (at NY Jets; SR 8.25, OFP 9.9%)

Similar to GB. In theory the Patriots will be big faves again next week (vs. BUF), but if they win here and the Broncos lose on MNF it may not actually play out that way.

Seattle (at Arizona; SR 7.64, OFP 4.7%)

Decent option. The Seahawks host the Rams in W17.

St. Louis (vs. NY Giants; SR 6.78, OFP 4.2%)

Might be your best option if you've used everybody favored by more than a TD. No future value unless there is some weird situation where Seattle is tanking next week or something.

Jacksonville (vs. Tennessee; SR 6.30, OFP 4.1%)

What a world. Seems tough to justify though.

Detroit (at Chicago; SR 7.73, OFP 3.6%)

An excellent option for the moment, but trusting the current OFP% does not seem advisable, so we'll see what happens with that.

Carolina (vs. Cleveland; SR N/A, OFP 3.3%)

Do not think this will be a good option regardless.

Pittsburgh (vs. Kansas City; SR 6.03, OFP 2.2%)

Probably not.

New Orleans (vs. Atlanta; SR 7.02, OFP 1.9%)
Baltimore (at Houston; SR 6.90, OFP 0.5%)

Pushing it, and both teams potentially have some W17 value (at TB, vs. CLE).

Thursday, December 11, 2014

2014 NFL Survivor: Week 15

Finally a decent week for eliminations, getting us to about 1.4% of initial entries:

Friday, December 5, 2014

This Fortnight and a Half in Degen Internet (11/15-12/5)

G.O.A.T. of the Fortnight and a Half

Aaron Sorkin.

W.O.A.T. of the Fortnight and a Half

Jimmy Shapiro.

Tweets of the Fortnight and a Half

The Rest

The judge that heard the latest round of the NJ sports betting case seems like a real asshole.

Nice league, Roger.

TYVM, Dave and David.

#teamREC Tweet of the Fortnight and a Half

GMAFB Tweet of the Fortnight and a Half

Wednesday, December 3, 2014

2014 NFL Survivor: Week 14

Another fairly uneventful week, as the five most popular teams all won. SRs from Pinny, consensus numbers from OFP:

Detroit (vs. Tampa Bay; SR 8.1, OFP 39.6%)

Popularity really kills this one. The Lions host the Vikings next week.

San Francisco (at Oakland; SR 7.82, OFP 17.8%)

Better, but still not ideal. It's not a convincing reason to save them, especially after their performance on Thursday night, but the Niners could be worth having around for the last couple weeks (vs. SD, vs. ARI).

Green Bay (vs. Atlanta; SR 8.44, OFP 9.2%)

Best option of the week. Really just depends if you need to save the Packers for W16 (at Tampa).

New Orleans (vs. Carolina; SR 8.16, OFP 9.2%)

Another solid pick. The Saints also have a favorable matchup in Week 16, hosting the Falcons.

Minnesota (vs. NY Jets; SR 7.02, OFP 8.0%)

Comparable to the Lions in terms of SR/pop combo, but with ~0 FV.

Houston (at Jacksonville; SR 5.31, OFP 6.7%)


Denver (vs. Buffalo; SR 8.22, OFP 6.1%)

Very strong, and the Broncos play somewhat competent teams (SD, CIN) on the road the next two weeks. That W17 matchup looms as large as ever though, now that C.J. Anderson is rushing for 170 yards/game and the Raiders lost to a last place team by 52.

Certainly risky to save Denver for the last week of the season, but it does seem likely they'll care about that game. New England has the tiebreaker, so the Broncos would have to be 1.5 games up on the Pats after NE's W17 game to have clinched HFA by kickoff.

Dallas (at Chicago; SR 6.43, OFP 1.0%)
St. Louis (at Washington; SR 5.80, OFP 0.4%)
Arizona (vs. Kansas City; SR 5.07, OFP 0.3%)
New England (at San Diego; SR 6.31, OFP 0.3%)
Indianapolis (at Cleveland; SR 6.49, OFP 0.2%)

Not great. The Cowboys appear to be the best option out of these five, since they're at least favored by more than a FG and don't have any future value except W17 (at WAS).

Thursday, November 27, 2014

2014 NFL Survivor: Week 13

Very chalky week, with nine of the 10 most popular teams winning. SRs from Pinny, consensus numbers from OFP:

St. Louis (vs. Oakland; SR 7.18, OFP 37.6%)

Absolutely not.

Indianapolis (vs. Washington; SR 8.16, OFP 17.7%)

The Colts look to be the strongest option this week; my only hesitation would be if you need to save them for Week 15 (vs. HOU).

Detroit (vs. Chicago; SR 7.50, OFP 15.8%)

Not as good as the Colts this week but definitely solid, especially after their popularity comes down a bit between now and Sunday. Again, it depends on how the next two weeks are shaping up for your particular entry, as the Lions have home games against the Bucs and Vikings in Weeks 14 and 15.

Houston (vs. Tennessee; SR 7.10, OFP 9.4%)

Could take the Texans here if you don't have or want to save the stronger options. Depending on how long you expect your pool to last, it may be worth keeping them around for W17 (home vs. JAX).

Miami (at NY Jets; SR 7.38, OFP 5.6%)

One of the better SR/pop combos this week, currently behind only IND and another option discussed below. Certainly viable in smaller pools, but the Dolphins close out the season with home games against the Vikings and Jets.

NY Giants (at Jacksonville; SR 5.70, OFP 5.6%)
Cincinnati (at Tampa Bay; SR 6.35, OFP 3.6%)
Arizona (at Atlanta; SR 5.58, OFP 1.0%)


Baltimore (vs. San Diego; SR 7.13, OFP 1.0%)

The best non-Colts pick this week. The only issue here is that if you can save the Ravens for Week 15 (home vs. JAX), you likely want to do that.

Pittsburgh (vs. New Orleans; SR 6.69, OFP 0.8%)

Filler, comparable to the Texans. No especially obvious spot to take the Steelers down the stretch, although they could be an option in Weeks 15-17.

Thursday, November 20, 2014

2014 NFL Survivor: Week 12

Crazy week, which could have really been epic if not for Le'Veon Bell. Even so, we're down to about 2.5% of initial entries: