Monday, January 31, 2011

The Most Ridiculous Super Bowl XLV Props

The fourth annual edition! Let's get right into it:

Who will win the Super Bowl XLV Coin Toss?


Steelers, +103
Packers, +103

Start off with an easy one. Plenty of shops are offering reduced juice on the coin toss (how generous!), but SBET is the only place I've seen plus money on either side, let alone both.

First team to kickoff will be?


Steelers -125
Packers +107

Does Pittsburgh have a tendency to defer to the second half? Pinnacle isn't in the business of just making stuff up (well, not usually), so there's likely a good reason this isn't 50-50, but I'm not sure where to look that up.

Color of Gatorade dumped on winning coach?

I used to think I had this one figured out -- it was clear/water for three consecutive years -- but not anymore, as C/W has lost the last two SBs and its odds have also come down. Tomlin is "not a proponent" of the Gatorade dump, so it may not happen at all, but that seems unlikely.
I went through the entire Yahoo! galleries for both conference title games (240 photos total!) and didn't see a drop of Gatorade, so no help there. Taking the best odds for each color, these only add up to 103%, so they're very beatable, but I'm just not sure where.

What side of the ball will the players that perform the Gatorade shower be from?


Offense, +130
Defense, -170


Offense, +150
Defense, -200

Offense, +165
Defense, -225

I definitely lean toward the defense here, although it's tough to know how much juice it's actually worth paying. Logic dictates that the defensive players are significantly more likely, since there are a lot more of them on the sideline when the offense is kneeling, but the books have adjusted to this seemingly obvious fact over the last couple years.

Time on the Game Clock When the Winning Team Attempts to Dump Gatorade on Head Coach

Over 45 seconds left in 4Q, +115
Under 45 seconds left in 4Q, -145

They do love these Gatorade props, and this is a new one. There are actually a lot of variables in play here. Will the game be close? Even if it is, will there be at least two kneel downs at the end? If there are, will the Gatorade be dumped after the last one, or prior to that. This opened at -120/-120, so I think it was bet in the right direction, but I can't find much value here.

Who will MVP thank 1st?

I love this one. The odds have come down a bit on "Does Not Thank Anyone", but not nearly enough, particularly at Sportsbook. For at least the last four years, the MVP has not technically thanked anyone. This isn't because they're not grateful -- I suspect they are -- but because it'd just be weird to specifically thank a group in an interview unless the question is, "Who would you like to thank?". For example, here is what I said about the MVP's interview last year:
Brees was plenty gracious -- he said "God is great", and talked about how the Saints had the best ownership, best head coach, best GM, and best team -- but none of those counted.
A similar prop is being offered for the winning coach's interview at a couple places and I think there's value there as well: +350 at BetUS, and +400 at Sportsbook.

Length of National Anthem:


Over 1:54, -160
Under 1:54, +120


Over 1:54, -200
Under 1:54, +150

Bodog actually opened this at 1:50 last week, so it's clear that bettors have been favoring the over.

The most relevant example here is definitely Aguilera's performance during the NBA Finals last summer. I've got that one at 1:52, which makes U1:54 +150 quite intriguing. Going back a few years, I'm getting 1:58 for her rendition at what I believe was the 2004 NBA All-Star game. But the drums in the background of that one add some uncertainty, and she actually sang "home of the brave" twice.

For another data point, at a hockey game that supposedly took place in August of 2005, she made it through in a swift 1:44. I think there is value in the under at Sportsbook here.

How long will Christina Aguilera hold the note “Brave” at the end of the National Anthem?


Over 6 seconds, -140
Under 6 seconds, EV


Over 6 seconds, -130
Under 6 seconds, -110

This is a good one, although she was at exactly six seconds last summer despite strangely walking off before finishing, so not much of a lean here.

What will Fergie be wearing at halftime?


Pants (blow knees), +175
Shorts (above knees), +400
Skirt/dress, +135
Thong/G-String/Bikini bottom, +1500
Tight bodysuit, +150

"Tight bodysuit" was actually 7-1 when I originally pulled these odds on Monday night. I don't really have much else to say here, but figured I'd share these. Especially if we have a situation like the Kardashian one last year, where she announces what she's going to wear prior to the game.

Will a punt hit the scoreboard during the game?


Yes, +1000
No, -2500

Tough to get rich laying -2500 on props with $50 limits, but is there really a 3.8% chance that a punt hits the scoreboard? It's my understanding that when Trapasso hit it in the preseason, it was on purpose, and I can't imagine the punters are going to be messing around like that on Sunday. The fact that this didn't come up at all during the regular season makes it even more likely that Trapasso was just being difficult.

How many times will FOX mention "lockout" (from kickoff to final whistle)?

Over 1.5, -110
Under 1.5, -130

They originally had this at 2.5, which I thought was definitely high. At this point it's really a matter of whether the lockout is brought up at all, since if it is they'll likely say "lockout" more than once. My lean would still be toward the under; as with the "thanks" props, I just don't think there's really going to be an appropriate time to bring up the impending labor issues. I wouldn't even be surprised if Buck and Aikman were specifically asked to not mention it during the league's premier event.

Highest rated commercial on USA Today Ad Meter:


Bud Light, +275
Budweiser, +275
Doritos, +550, +1000
Pepsi Max, +600
Skechers, +1200
Teleflora, +1500
Other, +250

The most exciting prop from XLIV returns, but the odds seem a lot more reasonable this year (sadly Bookmaker has not gotten involved).

With its strong showings the last two years (#1 in '09, #2 in '10), Doritos is interesting at +550. You can actually watch the five finalists from their "Crash the Super Bowl" contest here; I thought the first one was quite funny, but the other four were very mediocre. The Pepsi Max commercials are on that same page, none of them really stood out to me.

GoDaddy always gets a lot of publicity at this time of year (almost like they planned it that way), but is this commercial really the type that rates well on Ad Meter? I don't believe so.

It's too bad they split up Bud and Bud Light, because they are really a powerhouse. Unless someone digs up some more commercials, the only one I'd consider playing here is Doritos +550.

Half-Time Show - Will Big Ben hit on Fergie? (Will Ben Roethlisberger be seen talking to Fergie during half-time?)


Yes, +1500

Okay, I think it's time to stop. Enjoy the game.