tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-79655859984036741762024-03-08T06:33:53.996-05:00Vegas WatchThis blog contains many errors, some of them fundamental to the analysis.Vegas Watchhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/02353166004125421683noreply@blogger.comBlogger58125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7965585998403674176.post-14417476614008900262015-04-22T18:10:00.003-04:002015-04-23T17:46:15.190-04:00The Long Con of @RJinVegas: "Vegas" Says (Part Two)<br />
<i><span class=""><span class="goog-text-highlight">RJ Bell is the founder and CEO of <a href="http://pregame.com/">Pregame.com</a>, a sports betting website that includes forums, odds, contests, and picks (both of the free and for purchase varieties). It is one of the most successful sites of its kind, in no small part due to the popularity of Bell, who has accumulated </span><a href="https://twitter.com/rjinvegas"><span class="goog-text-highlight">over <strike>80K</strike> 100K Twitter followers</span></a><span class="goog-text-highlight"> and established himself as the mainstream media's go-to "expert" for stories involving gambling on sports.</span></span></i><br />
<i><br /></i><i>An American success story if there every was one. That's only one side of it, though. In <a href="http://roughingthepunter.com/forumdisplay.php?f=2">some</a> <a href="http://www.wagerminds.com/blog/?s=rj%20bell">corners</a> of the <a href="http://www.sportsgrid.com/gamblin/why-are-grantland-and-new-york-times-glorifying-sleazy-rj-bell/">internet</a> (including <a href="http://www.vegaswatch.org/search/label/%23WOAT">this blog</a>), there is a feeling that Bell has not found his success in a legitimate way. This is the 16th post in a <a href="http://www.vegaswatch.org/search/label/Long%20Con%20of%20RJ">series</a> detailing the reasoning behind that particular feeling. If you'd like to start at the beginning, it's <a href="http://www.vegaswatch.org/2014/07/the-long-con-of-rjinvegas-defining-value.html">here</a>.</i><br />
<i><br /></i>
Back in August, we <a href="http://www.vegaswatch.org/2014/08/the-long-con-of-rjinvegas-vegas-says.html">established that</a>:<br />
<blockquote>
using "Vegas" as a meaningless buzzword to attribute an undeserving level of importance to the information you're tweeting</blockquote>
...is bad. In this post, I'm going to attempt to expand on that thought by looking at two more subsets of "Vegas Says".<br />
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<h2>
<b>Imaginary Lines</b></h2>
<div>
<b><br /></b></div>
<a name='more'></a>Any odds that a sportsbook employee quotes but doesn't actually offer a market on can fairly be classified as "imaginary", but some scenarios take us even further into fantasy land than others.<br />
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Excluding the <a href="https://twitter.com/NeastWS/status/535496228696383488">intentionally absurd</a>, the furthest you can take it is quoting a line for a game that never had a chance of occurring in the past, and has no chance of happening in the future. The "lines" for these "games" have all the same issues as any "Vegas Says" lines in that:<br />
<br />
<ul>
<li>We're still asking folks who don't actually originate lines to originate lines with a $0 limit, and then acting like it's an expert opinion, and;</li>
<li>Regardless of their level of qualification, the opinion of a single person is not a representation of "Vegas", that's not how markets work.</li>
</ul>
The impossibility of a game happening at any time in the past or future also brings new complications. As an example, we'll look at a popular topic over the last couple months.<br />
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While Kentucky basketball was in the midst of its 38-game winning streak this season, there was quite a bit of discussion about how the Wildcats stacked up against dominant teams of years past, the early-90s UNLV teams in particular. Because people just can't help themselves, this turned into a discussion of what the line would be if '15 UK played '91 UNLV.<br />
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The first new issue comes from the fact that this game never had a chance of happening. Nobody, at any point, has needed to compare these two teams in any meaningful way with any $ on the line. If you're guessing what the line would have been if '15 UK played '15 Duke, there are lots of people who've had financial incentive to consider the relative merits of all '15 college hoops teams, including those two squads. The same cannot be said for teams that existed 24 years apart.<br />
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I won't waste everybody's time detailing the differences in the CBB landscape between 1991 and 2015, but needless to say a lot has changed, and thus even if you kept accurate power ratings for every team for the past 25 years, they're still by nature only relevant to their contemporaries, and thus not useful for this exercise.<br />
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This game also has no chance of happening in the future, which means no matter how absurd your imaginary line is, you'll never technically be *wrong*. The combination of all these factors is how we end up with this horror show:<br />
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In a just world, the above screenshot would be embarrassing for everybody involved. In the one we're stuck with, RJ Bell <a href="https://twitter.com/RJinVegas/status/584392187086905345">went on SportsCenter</a> a few days after that last tweet and said:<br />
<blockquote>
One pro bettor I work with said [...] the UNLV team in '91, they lost in the semis, [would be] a six-point favorite [over '15 UK].</blockquote>
It's worth (?) pointing out that RJ doesn't just throw this in at the end of the segment, he *leads* with it, quoting imaginary lines for '15 UK against teams going all the way back to <a href="https://twitter.com/groovinmahoovin/status/584371290892541952">'68 UCLA</a> before he says anything about the Final Four odds that, you know, actually exist (which he also <a href="https://twitter.com/vegasWATCH/status/586986335182815233">screws up</a>, obviously).<br />
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In the SportsCenter quote, RJ is actually referencing <a href="http://pregame.com/pregame-forums/f/14/t/1202899.aspx">one of his employees</a> rather than the sportsbook employee quoted in his tweet above. Regardless, even if these imaginary lines were a legitimate thing, there's no attempt made to tell the whole story, or provide accurate information. RJ's only interest is in spewing the same meaningless BS and being able to attribute it to a "bookmaker" or "pro bettor" to make it sound legitimate.<br />
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It is, of course, reasonable to wonder where UK stacks up historically, but somewhere between "I don't think UK is as good as that UNLV team" and "[Important Vegas Person] says '15 UK [+6, -3, -4.5, -6.5] vs. '91 UNLV" we are getting a bit too cute.<br />
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<h2>
<b><br /></b></h2>
<h2>
<b>PR Props</b></h2>
<b><br /></b>
Here's how the process works:<br />
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<b>1.</b> There is a current event which is garnering a lot of attention. It may be directly related to sports, peripherally related to sports, or not related at all; doesn't really matter.<br />
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<a href="http://4.bp.blogspot.com/-TFr6KxeTAds/VTfy4mPj-XI/AAAAAAAAFo8/rMMaH3rWKyY/s1600/bovada1.png" imageanchor="1" style="clear: left; float: left; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" src="http://4.bp.blogspot.com/-TFr6KxeTAds/VTfy4mPj-XI/AAAAAAAAFo8/rMMaH3rWKyY/s1600/bovada1.png" height="216" width="640" /></a></div>
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<b>2.</b> An employee of recreational offshore sportsbook Bovada is alerted to this potential opportunity for free advertising. He identifies a future event, directly related to the buzzworthy current event, that is conducive to "handicapping".<br />
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<b>Will [prominent character] die in the final season of Breaking Bad?</b><br />
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<b>Who will Rory McIlroy date next?</b><br />
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<b>How many games will Johnny Manziel start next season?</b><br />
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<b>3.</b> The rec sportsbook employee then comes up with odds for this future event. This may seem like an important part of the process, but it's not. It doesn't much matter what the odds are, as long as there are odds (and the vig is high). The max bet will be ~$50-$100, and if you show any level of competence, Bovada will cut your account to 1% of that limit. If the odds are "off" and there's a lot of action coming in on one particular outcome, that's just another potential opportunity for free advertising.<br />
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<b>4.</b> With the odds all set, it's time to spread the word (oh and open the market, I guess). Bovada then enlists a PR agency to send out an email to as many media folks as possible, alerting them to these <strike>RTs</strike> odds they might be interested in.<br />
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<b>5.</b> Because they love <strike>RTs</strike> odds, media folks tweet about the interesting info they've received.<br />
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<a href="http://4.bp.blogspot.com/-P7mKxlta6gk/VTf58GN1I5I/AAAAAAAAFpM/564zK2XMezI/s1600/bovada2.png" imageanchor="1" style="clear: left; float: left; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" src="http://4.bp.blogspot.com/-P7mKxlta6gk/VTf58GN1I5I/AAAAAAAAFpM/564zK2XMezI/s1600/bovada2.png" height="212" width="640" /></a></div>
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<b>6.</b> Finally, customers decide what they value.<br />
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<a href="http://4.bp.blogspot.com/-NmLgFR8IVLw/VTf6XxYaWxI/AAAAAAAAFpU/juDJR73q-c4/s1600/bovada3.png" imageanchor="1" style="clear: left; float: left; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" src="http://4.bp.blogspot.com/-NmLgFR8IVLw/VTf6XxYaWxI/AAAAAAAAFpU/juDJR73q-c4/s1600/bovada3.png" height="284" width="640" /></a></div>
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Except they don't, really. I mean, maybe the people retweeting and favoriting odds tweeted out by @RJinVegas and credited to @BovadaLV are aware that they aren't actually offered in Vegas, are created with an eye toward PR, are typically the true openers, have a ~$50-$100 limit, and aren't available to sharp bettors. Maybe they know that these markets can <a href="http://i.imgur.com/QW1EPwU.png">make no sense</a> and it doesn't really matter. Maybe they're aware that Bovada can simply <a href="https://twitter.com/vegasWATCH/status/558077674372218881">take the market down</a> when they feel there's no more PR to be had. Maybe they know all this and they think it's interesting anyway.<br />
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I'm pretty sure that's not what's happening here, though. It seems somewhat more likely that, as with "imaginary lines," RJ is taking completely meaningless info and dressing it up to seem important. And this time, he's not just doing so to get you to his tout site to sell you some shitty picks; he's also promoting another <a href="https://twitter.com/vegasWATCH/status/520369574026301440">very</a>, <a href="https://twitter.com/vegasWATCH/status/581524732291485696">very</a> <a href="https://twitter.com/vegasWATCH/status/520380802656665601">shady</a> operation. More on them later.<br />
<br />Vegas Watchhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/02353166004125421683noreply@blogger.com13tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7965585998403674176.post-29366818701521732492015-02-23T23:09:00.000-05:002015-02-23T23:09:28.283-05:002013 Degen Tweat of the Year: The Ship<br />
F4 results:<br />
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<a href="http://2.bp.blogspot.com/-Nif3jedyrQY/VOv3ZlHrXpI/AAAAAAAAFmw/qJa_4eAtmHQ/s1600/dtoty1.png" imageanchor="1" style="clear: left; float: left; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" src="http://2.bp.blogspot.com/-Nif3jedyrQY/VOv3ZlHrXpI/AAAAAAAAFmw/qJa_4eAtmHQ/s640/dtoty1.png" /></a></div>
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Such an Asshole took a surprising early lead, but even the selection committee couldn't fuck up the top two seeds in this tourney. It was RJ's year, and it is RJ's final.<br />
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<b><br /></b>
<b>The Ship</b><br />
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<b>(1) 12% ASG Swing!</b><br />
<blockquote class="twitter-tweet" lang="en">
If <a href="https://twitter.com/hashtag/Cardinals?src=hash">#Cardinals</a> had home field: 57% chance to win Series (via <a href="https://twitter.com/JayKornegay">@JayKornegay</a>). Actual odds: 45%. 12% All-Star game swing!<br />
— RJ Bell (@RJinVegas) <a href="https://twitter.com/RJinVegas/status/393069928615796736">October 23, 2013</a></blockquote>
<script async="" charset="utf-8" src="//platform.twitter.com/widgets.js"></script><br />
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<b>(2) Misanthropes</b><br />
<blockquote class="twitter-tweet" lang="en">
<a href="https://twitter.com/AndyGlockner">@AndyGlockner</a> If you value the truth, Andy, please rethink your assumptions. You are being mislead by misanthropes with an agenda.<br />
— RJ Bell (@RJinVegas) <a href="https://twitter.com/RJinVegas/status/407354443059826688">December 2, 2013</a></blockquote>
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<a class="OPP-powered-by" href="https://www.easypolls.net/" style="text-decoration: none;">polls</a></div>
Vegas Watchhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/02353166004125421683noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7965585998403674176.post-10933664732575105832015-02-20T11:42:00.001-05:002015-02-20T11:42:43.409-05:002013 Degen Tweat of the Year: Final Four<br />
S7 results:<br />
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<a href="http://2.bp.blogspot.com/-5LtxLFNMk9c/VOdfnmkRU2I/AAAAAAAAFmI/TkVKKg_uNFM/s1600/strong7.png" imageanchor="1" style="clear: left; float: left; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" src="http://2.bp.blogspot.com/-5LtxLFNMk9c/VOdfnmkRU2I/AAAAAAAAFmI/TkVKKg_uNFM/s640/strong7.png" /></a></div>
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Updated bracket:<br />
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<a href="http://4.bp.blogspot.com/-zF7Y2_8t07o/VOdfwQpGLvI/AAAAAAAAFmQ/MPcibFLfGlI/s1600/bracket11.png" imageanchor="1" style="clear: left; float: left; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" src="http://4.bp.blogspot.com/-zF7Y2_8t07o/VOdfwQpGLvI/AAAAAAAAFmQ/MPcibFLfGlI/s640/bracket11.png" height="417" width="640" /></a></div>
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<b>(1) 12% ASG Swing! vs. (4) Such an Asshole</b><br />
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<blockquote class="twitter-tweet" lang="en">
If <a href="https://twitter.com/hashtag/Cardinals?src=hash">#Cardinals</a> had home field: 57% chance to win Series (via <a href="https://twitter.com/JayKornegay">@JayKornegay</a>). Actual odds: 45%. 12% All-Star game swing!<br />
— RJ Bell (@RJinVegas) <a href="https://twitter.com/RJinVegas/status/393069928615796736">October 23, 2013</a></blockquote>
<script async="" charset="utf-8" src="//platform.twitter.com/widgets.js"></script><i>Thoughts/context: It's funny bc HFA is actually not worth nearly that much.</i><br />
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<blockquote class="twitter-tweet" lang="en">
<a href="https://twitter.com/vegasWATCH">@vegaswatch</a> I'm looking into the errors. Danny is human and makes mistakes, but you don't have to be such an asshole about it.<br />
— Aaron Schatz (@FO_ASchatz) <a href="https://twitter.com/FO_ASchatz/status/414148275168874496">December 20, 2013</a></blockquote>
<script async="" charset="utf-8" src="//platform.twitter.com/widgets.js"></script><i>Thoughts/context: Still blaming it all on Danny smh.</i><br />
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<a class="OPP-powered-by" href="https://www.easypolls.net/" style="text-decoration: none;">free polls</a></div>
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<b>(2) Misanthropes vs. (3) Major Problems</b><br />
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<blockquote class="twitter-tweet" lang="en">
<a href="https://twitter.com/AndyGlockner">@AndyGlockner</a> If you value the truth, Andy, please rethink your assumptions. You are being mislead by misanthropes with an agenda.<br />
— RJ Bell (@RJinVegas) <a href="https://twitter.com/RJinVegas/status/407354443059826688">December 2, 2013</a></blockquote>
<script async="" charset="utf-8" src="//platform.twitter.com/widgets.js"></script><i>Thoughts/context: Glockner's avatar is horrifying.</i>
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<blockquote class="twitter-tweet" lang="en">
<a href="https://twitter.com/thickSLICING">@thickslicing</a> <a href="https://twitter.com/LVSuperBook">@LVSuperBook</a> take all the personal shots you want but keep up the anti-semitic antics and there will be major problems<br />
— Todd Fuhrman (@ToddFuhrman) <a href="https://twitter.com/ToddFuhrman/status/407038100733300736">December 1, 2013</a></blockquote>
<script async="" charset="utf-8" src="//platform.twitter.com/widgets.js"></script><i>Thoughts/context: This is the GOAT matchup in DTOTY history (until the finals).</i><br />
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Vegas Watchhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/02353166004125421683noreply@blogger.com3tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7965585998403674176.post-52023862669594067142015-02-19T10:21:00.000-05:002015-02-19T10:24:51.637-05:002013 Degen Tweat of the Year: Strong 7<br />
The <a href="http://www.vegaswatch.org/2015/02/2013-degen-tweat-of-year-elite-8.html">Elite 8</a> was a shitshow. Onward:<br />
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<a href="http://4.bp.blogspot.com/-WJVDeC4ue4A/VOX5NlXs9_I/AAAAAAAAFl0/jaQWts3fa50/s1600/BRACKET10.png" imageanchor="1" style="clear: left; float: left; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" src="http://4.bp.blogspot.com/-WJVDeC4ue4A/VOX5NlXs9_I/AAAAAAAAFl0/jaQWts3fa50/s640/BRACKET10.png" /></a></div>
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<b>(2) Misanthropes vs. (7) Mkt Has Spoken</b><br />
<blockquote class="twitter-tweet" lang="en">
<a href="https://twitter.com/AndyGlockner">@AndyGlockner</a> If you value the truth, Andy, please rethink your assumptions. You are being mislead by misanthropes with an agenda.<br />
— RJ Bell (@RJinVegas) <a href="https://twitter.com/RJinVegas/status/407354443059826688">December 2, 2013</a></blockquote>
<script async="" charset="utf-8" src="//platform.twitter.com/widgets.js"></script><i>Thoughts/context: Has been a drama-free run for #teamMISANTHROPE thus far.</i><br />
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<blockquote class="twitter-tweet" lang="en">
<a href="https://twitter.com/therealestDAN">@therealestdan</a> Amazing w/ ur keen insights you have only 217 followers after 9491 post (.0228 followers per post). The mkt has spoken - LOL.<br />
— RJ Bell (@RJinVegas) <a href="https://twitter.com/RJinVegas/status/292056322361405440">January 17, 2013</a></blockquote>
<script async="" charset="utf-8" src="//platform.twitter.com/widgets.js"></script><i>Thoughts/context: Technically eliminated in the first round, but how much of that was due to getting the #WOAT draw? Let's find out.</i><br />
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<a class="OPP-powered-by" href="http://www.objectplanet.com/opinio/" style="text-decoration: none;">feedback surveys</a></div>
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<b>(3) Major Problems vs. (6) Smug Sense</b><br />
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<blockquote class="twitter-tweet" lang="en">
<a href="https://twitter.com/thickSLICING">@thickslicing</a> <a href="https://twitter.com/LVSuperBook">@LVSuperBook</a> take all the personal shots you want but keep up the anti-semitic antics and there will be major problems<br />
— Todd Fuhrman (@ToddFuhrman) <a href="https://twitter.com/ToddFuhrman/status/407038100733300736">December 1, 2013</a></blockquote>
<script async="" charset="utf-8" src="//platform.twitter.com/widgets.js"></script><i>Thoughts/context: The tweat that benefited the most from re-seeding. And voter fraud.</i><br />
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<blockquote class="twitter-tweet" lang="en">
As somebody with an unearned smug sense of superiority, I'm AMAZED at some other people's unearned smug sense of superiority.<br />
— Bill Barnwell (@billbarnwell) <a href="https://twitter.com/billbarnwell/status/376062958465740801">September 6, 2013</a></blockquote>
<script async="" charset="utf-8" src="//platform.twitter.com/widgets.js"></script><i>Thoughts/context: Cruised through the E8, but now faces a stiffer challenge in the S6.</i><br />
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<script src="http://www.easypolls.net/ext/scripts/emPoll.js?p=54e5fd98e4b0fec8f472ac7d" type="text/javascript"></script><a class="OPP-powered-by" href="http://www.objectplanet.com/opinio/" style="text-decoration: none;"></a><br />
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<a class="OPP-powered-by" href="http://www.objectplanet.com/opinio/" style="text-decoration: none;">survey tools</a></div>
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<b>(4) Such an Asshole vs. (5) Rocket Car</b><br />
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<blockquote class="twitter-tweet" lang="en">
<a href="https://twitter.com/vegasWATCH">@vegaswatch</a> I'm looking into the errors. Danny is human and makes mistakes, but you don't have to be such an asshole about it.<br />
— Aaron Schatz (@FO_ASchatz) <a href="https://twitter.com/FO_ASchatz/status/414148275168874496">December 20, 2013</a></blockquote>
<script async="" charset="utf-8" src="//platform.twitter.com/widgets.js"></script><i>Thoughts/context: Rematch!</i><br />
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<blockquote class="twitter-tweet" lang="en">
If you give out game projections that vary wildly from prevailing betting lines, you should live in a gold house w/ rocket car or shut up.<br />
— Randall James Busack (@thickSLICING) <a href="https://twitter.com/thickSLICING/status/388311911412273152">October 10, 2013</a></blockquote>
<script async="" charset="utf-8" src="//platform.twitter.com/widgets.js"></script><i>Thoughts/context: Rematch!</i><br />
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<script src="http://www.easypolls.net/ext/scripts/emPoll.js?p=54e5feb7e4b0fec8f472ac8a" type="text/javascript"></script><a class="OPP-powered-by" href="http://www.objectplanet.com/opinio/" style="text-decoration: none;"></a><br />
<div style="color: grey; font: 9px arial;">
<a class="OPP-powered-by" href="http://www.objectplanet.com/opinio/" style="text-decoration: none;">panel management</a></div>
Vegas Watchhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/02353166004125421683noreply@blogger.com2tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7965585998403674176.post-12943663808860624592015-02-16T20:31:00.000-05:002015-02-19T09:47:28.696-05:002013 Degen Tweat of the Year: Elite 8<br />
R1P2 results:<br />
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<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="http://2.bp.blogspot.com/-t-kZ78cmvo0/VOJ5J_p1eDI/AAAAAAAAFlc/9152z3qAVlI/s1600/r1p2.png" imageanchor="1" style="clear: left; float: left; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" src="http://2.bp.blogspot.com/-t-kZ78cmvo0/VOJ5J_p1eDI/AAAAAAAAFlc/9152z3qAVlI/s640/r1p2.png" /></a></div>
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Updated bracket:<br />
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<a href="http://3.bp.blogspot.com/-Ni4oz5jIU14/VOJ5z_1fVBI/AAAAAAAAFlk/zEbXfAYtZp4/s1600/bracket9.png" imageanchor="1" style="clear: left; float: left; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" src="http://3.bp.blogspot.com/-Ni4oz5jIU14/VOJ5z_1fVBI/AAAAAAAAFlk/zEbXfAYtZp4/s1600/bracket9.png" height="338" width="640" /></a></div>
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What follows is likely the greatest collection of tweats ever embedded in a single bolg post.<br />
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<b>(1) 12% ASG Swing! vs. (8) Major Problems</b><br />
<blockquote class="twitter-tweet" lang="en">
If <a href="https://twitter.com/hashtag/Cardinals?src=hash">#Cardinals</a> had home field: 57% chance to win Series (via <a href="https://twitter.com/JayKornegay">@JayKornegay</a>). Actual odds: 45%. 12% All-Star game swing!<br />
— RJ Bell (@RJinVegas) <a href="https://twitter.com/RJinVegas/status/393069928615796736">October 23, 2013</a></blockquote>
<script async="" charset="utf-8" src="//platform.twitter.com/widgets.js"></script><i>Thoughts/context: The presumed champ, but it's time to earn the official title.</i><br />
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<blockquote class="twitter-tweet" lang="en">
<a href="https://twitter.com/thickSLICING">@thickslicing</a> <a href="https://twitter.com/LVSuperBook">@LVSuperBook</a> take all the personal shots you want but keep up the anti-semitic antics and there will be major problems<br />
— Todd Fuhrman (@ToddFuhrman) <a href="https://twitter.com/ToddFuhrman/status/407038100733300736">December 1, 2013</a></blockquote>
<script async="" charset="utf-8" src="//platform.twitter.com/widgets.js"></script><i>Thoughts/context: Got a nearly impossible draw, but could be favored in the national semis if it does the seemingly impossible here.</i><br />
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<script src="http://www.easypolls.net/ext/scripts/emPoll.js?p=54e28248e4b0fec8f472a72b" type="text/javascript"></script><a class="OPP-powered-by" href="https://www.easypolls.net/" style="text-decoration: none;"></a><br />
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<a class="OPP-powered-by" href="https://www.easypolls.net/" style="text-decoration: none;">polls</a></div>
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<b>(5) Beyonce Cleavage vs. (4) Smug Sense</b>
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<blockquote class="twitter-tweet" lang="en">
I'm honestly not sure how my life has reached this point, but here we are. <a href="http://t.co/5iDhCzrG">http://t.co/5iDhCzrG</a> <a href="https://twitter.com/hashtag/beyonce?src=hash">#beyonce</a> <a href="https://twitter.com/hashtag/cleavage?src=hash">#cleavage</a> <a href="https://twitter.com/hashtag/props?src=hash">#props</a><br />
— Jacob W. Schaller (@vegasWATCH) <a href="https://twitter.com/vegasWATCH/status/298538235087450112">February 4, 2013</a></blockquote>
<script async="" charset="utf-8" src="//platform.twitter.com/widgets.js"></script><i>Thoughts/context: Barely survived its first round matchup with a clearly inferior tweat, idk.</i><br />
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<blockquote class="twitter-tweet" lang="en">
As somebody with an unearned smug sense of superiority, I'm AMAZED at some other people's unearned smug sense of superiority.<br />
— Bill Barnwell (@billbarnwell) <a href="https://twitter.com/billbarnwell/status/376062958465740801">September 6, 2013</a></blockquote>
<script async="" charset="utf-8" src="//platform.twitter.com/widgets.js"></script><i>Thoughts/context: Seems like this pod was a bit light tbqh, fucking selection committee.</i><br />
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<script src="http://www.easypolls.net/ext/scripts/emPoll.js?p=54e28399e4b0fec8f472a72f" type="text/javascript"></script><a class="OPP-powered-by" href="http://www.objectplanet.com/opinio/" style="text-decoration: none;"></a><br />
<div style="color: grey; font: 9px arial;">
<a class="OPP-powered-by" href="http://www.objectplanet.com/opinio/" style="text-decoration: none;">survey services</a></div>
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<b>(2) Misanthropes vs. (10) Bill Collects Flesh</b><br />
<blockquote class="twitter-tweet" lang="en">
<a href="https://twitter.com/AndyGlockner">@AndyGlockner</a> If you value the truth, Andy, please rethink your assumptions. You are being mislead by misanthropes with an agenda.<br />
— RJ Bell (@RJinVegas) <a href="https://twitter.com/RJinVegas/status/407354443059826688">December 2, 2013</a></blockquote>
<script async="" charset="utf-8" src="//platform.twitter.com/widgets.js"></script><i>Thoughts/context: Dominated against another @thickSLICING sacrificial lamb in R1. Expect it to advance here but who knows, maybe @Knuk7 will steal this too.</i><br />
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<blockquote class="twitter-tweet" lang="en">
OK, so I saw this: <a href="http://t.co/Maw8NXrP0n">http://t.co/Maw8NXrP0n</a>. Gave me the inspiration for this: <a href="http://t.co/OaZcEOTW09">http://t.co/OaZcEOTW09</a>. I'm so very very sorry.<br />
— Kunks Even (@Kunk7) <a href="https://twitter.com/Kunk7/status/368393019168264192">August 16, 2013</a></blockquote>
<script async="" charset="utf-8" src="//platform.twitter.com/widgets.js"></script><i>Thoughts/context: Good luck.</i><br />
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<script src="http://www.easypolls.net/ext/scripts/emPoll.js?p=54e28bebe4b0fec8f472a745" type="text/javascript"></script><a class="OPP-powered-by" href="http://www.objectplanet.com/opinio/" style="text-decoration: none;"></a><br />
<div style="color: grey; font: 9px arial;">
<a class="OPP-powered-by" href="http://www.objectplanet.com/opinio/" style="text-decoration: none;">feedback surveys</a></div>
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<b>(11) Rocket Car vs. (3) Such an Asshole</b><br />
<blockquote class="twitter-tweet" lang="en">
If you give out game projections that vary wildly from prevailing betting lines, you should live in a gold house w/ rocket car or shut up.<br />
— thickSLICING (@thickSLICING) <a href="https://twitter.com/thickSLICING/status/388311911412273152">October 10, 2013</a></blockquote>
<script async="" charset="utf-8" src="//platform.twitter.com/widgets.js"></script><i>Thoughts/context: Not sure who this was directed at?</i><br />
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<blockquote class="twitter-tweet" lang="en">
<a href="https://twitter.com/vegasWATCH">@vegaswatch</a> I'm looking into the errors. Danny is human and makes mistakes, but you don't have to be such an asshole about it.<br />
— Aaron Schatz (@FO_ASchatz) <a href="https://twitter.com/FO_ASchatz/status/414148275168874496">December 20, 2013</a></blockquote>
<script async="" charset="utf-8" src="//platform.twitter.com/widgets.js"></script><i>Thoughts/context: Oh right this fucking guy lol</i><br />
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<script src="http://www.easypolls.net/ext/scripts/emPoll.js?p=54e29914e4b0fec8f472a756" type="text/javascript"></script><a class="OPP-powered-by" href="http://www.objectplanet.com/opinio/" style="text-decoration: none;"></a><br />
<div style="color: grey; font: 9px arial;">
<a class="OPP-powered-by" href="http://www.objectplanet.com/opinio/" style="text-decoration: none;">survey services</a></div>
Vegas Watchhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/02353166004125421683noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7965585998403674176.post-35661861655831157442015-02-11T15:07:00.001-05:002015-02-11T15:08:05.295-05:002013 Degen Tweat of the Year: Round 1, Part 2<br />
R1P1 results:<br />
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<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="http://4.bp.blogspot.com/-C3JeO7BdTSw/VNu1x5st3SI/AAAAAAAAFk4/7rC-_GLy3Ig/s1600/r1p1.png" imageanchor="1" style="clear: left; float: left; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" src="http://4.bp.blogspot.com/-C3JeO7BdTSw/VNu1x5st3SI/AAAAAAAAFk4/7rC-_GLy3Ig/s640/r1p1.png" /></a></div>
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Significantly more votes on one of these matchups than on the other three. Huh. Moving right along:<br />
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<b>(2) Misanthropes vs. (15) Hack in Vegas</b><br />
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<blockquote class="twitter-tweet" lang="en">
<a href="https://twitter.com/AndyGlockner">@AndyGlockner</a> If you value the truth, Andy, please rethink your assumptions. You are being mislead by misanthropes with an agenda.<br />
— RJ Bell (@RJinVegas) <a href="https://twitter.com/RJinVegas/status/407354443059826688">December 2, 2013</a></blockquote>
<script async="" charset="utf-8" src="//platform.twitter.com/widgets.js"></script><i>Thoughts/context: The original <a href="https://twitter.com/cajuncooks/status/466685581909430272">stitched tweat</a>.</i><br />
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<blockquote class="twitter-tweet" lang="en">
<a href="https://twitter.com/ItsASham">@ItsASham</a> <a href="https://twitter.com/ViewFromVegas">@ViewFromVegas</a> The ViewFromVegas is that you're a HackInVegas who should jump off a BuildingInVegas<br />
— thickSLICING (@thickSLICING) <a href="https://twitter.com/thickSLICING/status/378367468240396288">September 13, 2013</a></blockquote>
<script async="" charset="utf-8" src="//platform.twitter.com/widgets.js"></script><i>Thoughts/context: Harsh? Maybe.</i><br />
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<script src="http://www.easypolls.net/ext/scripts/emPoll.js?p=54dbaf8ce4b0fec8f4729a7c" type="text/javascript"></script><a class="OPP-powered-by" href="http://www.objectplanet.com/opinio/" style="text-decoration: none;"></a><br />
<div style="color: grey; font: 9px arial;">
<a class="OPP-powered-by" href="http://www.objectplanet.com/opinio/" style="text-decoration: none;">customer survey</a></div>
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<b>(7) Office Pools vs. (10) Bill Collects Flesh</b><br />
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<blockquote class="twitter-tweet" lang="en">
Not if you're in an office pool. <a href="https://twitter.com/StatsInTheWild">@StatsInTheWild</a> Losing year in what sense? .512 winning percentage is a losing year.<br />
— Aaron Schatz (@FO_ASchatz) <a href="https://twitter.com/FO_ASchatz/status/417474399630286848">December 30, 2013</a></blockquote>
<script async="" charset="utf-8" src="//platform.twitter.com/widgets.js"></script><i>Thoughts/context: Those <a href="https://twitter.com/FO_ASchatz/status/417478563504599040">offseason improvements</a> sure <a href="https://twitter.com/FO_ASchatz/status/417478563504599040">went well</a>.</i><br />
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<blockquote class="twitter-tweet" lang="en">
OK, so I saw this: <a href="http://t.co/Maw8NXrP0n">http://t.co/Maw8NXrP0n</a>. Gave me the inspiration for this: <a href="http://t.co/OaZcEOTW09">http://t.co/OaZcEOTW09</a>. I'm so very very sorry.<br />
— Kunks Even (@Kunk7) <a href="https://twitter.com/Kunk7/status/368393019168264192">August 16, 2013</a></blockquote>
<script async="" charset="utf-8" src="//platform.twitter.com/widgets.js"></script><i>Thoughts/context: Quite the FO showdown. <a href="https://twitter.com/FO_ASchatz/status/489422048750755840">#blockityBLOCK</a></i><br />
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<script src="http://www.easypolls.net/ext/scripts/emPoll.js?p=54dbb19fe4b0fec8f4729a85" type="text/javascript"></script><a class="OPP-powered-by" href="http://www.objectplanet.com/opinio/" style="text-decoration: none;"></a><br />
<div style="color: grey; font: 9px arial;">
<a class="OPP-powered-by" href="http://www.objectplanet.com/opinio/" style="text-decoration: none;">feedback surveys</a></div>
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<b>(6) Yearning vs. (11) Rocket Car</b><br />
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<blockquote class="twitter-tweet" lang="en">
<a href="https://twitter.com/NotNeifi">@NotNeifi</a> Appreciate the support - rarely any logic to those types of tweets - just a futile yearning to be significant.<br />
— RJ Bell (@RJinVegas) <a href="https://twitter.com/RJinVegas/status/293969965470580737">January 23, 2013</a></blockquote>
<script async="" charset="utf-8" src="//platform.twitter.com/widgets.js"></script><i>Thoughts/context: Not quite what <a href="https://twitter.com/notneifi">@NotNeifi</a> meant, but we'll go with it!</i><br />
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<blockquote class="twitter-tweet" lang="en">
If you give out game projections that vary wildly from prevailing betting lines, you should live in a gold house w/ rocket car or shut up.<br />
— thickSLICING (@thickSLICING) <a href="https://twitter.com/thickSLICING/status/388311911412273152">October 10, 2013</a></blockquote>
<script async="" charset="utf-8" src="//platform.twitter.com/widgets.js"></script><i>Thoughts/context: Reminiscent of #DTotY14 Cinderella "<a href="http://www.vegaswatch.org/2015/01/2014-degen-tweat-of-year-elite-8.html">Never Buy Picks</a>".</i><br />
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<script src="http://www.easypolls.net/ext/scripts/emPoll.js?p=54dbb373e4b0fec8f4729a8c" type="text/javascript"></script><a class="OPP-powered-by" href="http://www.objectplanet.com/opinio/" style="text-decoration: none;"></a><br />
<div style="color: grey; font: 9px arial;">
<a class="OPP-powered-by" href="http://www.objectplanet.com/opinio/" style="text-decoration: none;">survey services</a></div>
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<b>(3) Such an Asshole vs. (14) Cities DOOMED</b><br />
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<blockquote class="twitter-tweet" lang="en">
<a href="https://twitter.com/vegasWATCH">@vegaswatch</a> I'm looking into the errors. Danny is human and makes mistakes, but you don't have to be such an asshole about it.<br />
— Aaron Schatz (@FO_ASchatz) <a href="https://twitter.com/FO_ASchatz/status/414148275168874496">December 20, 2013</a></blockquote>
<script async="" charset="utf-8" src="//platform.twitter.com/widgets.js"></script><i>Thoughts/context: The <a href="http://www.vegaswatch.org/2013/12/math-tho.html">19-1 sentence</a> still cracks me up every time. Insider tho.</i><br />
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<blockquote class="twitter-tweet" lang="en">
Cleveland. Detroit. Buffalo. St. Louis. All cities DOOMED in the NFL...no Free Agent would want to go there.<br />
— Steve Fezzik (@FezzikSports) <a href="https://twitter.com/FezzikSports/status/383431385341366272">September 27, 2013</a></blockquote>
<script async="" charset="utf-8" src="//platform.twitter.com/widgets.js"></script><i>Thoughts/context: It's too bad he didn't include Seattle in this tweet; Fezz really focused on how Seattle can never be the best team in the NFL in <a href="http://espn.go.com/espnradio/play?id=9259868">this summer 2013 Millman podcast</a>.</i><br />
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<script src="http://www.easypolls.net/ext/scripts/emPoll.js?p=54dbb4a5e4b0fec8f4729a93" type="text/javascript"></script><a class="OPP-powered-by" href="http://www.objectplanet.com/opinio/" style="text-decoration: none;"></a><br />
<div style="color: grey; font: 9px arial;">
<a class="OPP-powered-by" href="http://www.objectplanet.com/opinio/" style="text-decoration: none;">customer surveys</a></div>
Vegas Watchhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/02353166004125421683noreply@blogger.com5tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7965585998403674176.post-27644161013637582042015-02-10T09:14:00.001-05:002015-02-10T09:14:38.864-05:002013 Degen Tweat of the Year: Round 1, Part 1<br />
The bracket:<br />
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<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="http://3.bp.blogspot.com/-pHGlxFki8no/VNoKobQcuRI/AAAAAAAAFkc/Uo28mXP-4x0/s1600/bracket8.png" imageanchor="1" style="clear: left; float: left; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" src="http://3.bp.blogspot.com/-pHGlxFki8no/VNoKobQcuRI/AAAAAAAAFkc/Uo28mXP-4x0/s1600/bracket8.png" height="338" width="640" /></a></div>
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<b>(1) 12% ASG Swing! vs. (16) Gambling!</b><br />
<blockquote class="twitter-tweet" lang="en">
If <a href="https://twitter.com/hashtag/Cardinals?src=hash">#Cardinals</a> had home field: 57% chance to win Series (via <a href="https://twitter.com/JayKornegay">@JayKornegay</a>). Actual odds: 45%. 12% All-Star game swing!<br />
— RJ Bell (@RJinVegas) <a href="https://twitter.com/RJinVegas/status/393069928615796736">October 23, 2013</a></blockquote>
<i>Thoughts/context: Can be found <a href="http://www.vegaswatch.org/2014/08/the-long-con-of-rjinvegas-math.html">here</a>.</i><br />
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<script async="" charset="utf-8" src="//platform.twitter.com/widgets.js"></script><br />
<blockquote class="twitter-tweet" lang="en">
Yes, your secretary will win most of the time. Because life is a nightmare. But still, gambling!<br />
— thickSLICING (@thickSLICING) <a href="https://twitter.com/thickSLICING/status/364024684108869632">August 4, 2013</a></blockquote>
<i>Thoughts/context: Probably could have just given byes to he top four, tbqh.</i><br />
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<b>(8) Major Problems vs. (9) Mkt Has Spoken</b><br />
<blockquote class="twitter-tweet" lang="en">
<a href="https://twitter.com/thickSLICING">@thickslicing</a> <a href="https://twitter.com/LVSuperBook">@LVSuperBook</a> take all the personal shots you want but keep up the anti-semitic antics and there will be major problems<br />
— Todd Fuhrman (@ToddFuhrman) <a href="https://twitter.com/ToddFuhrman/status/407038100733300736">December 1, 2013</a></blockquote>
<script async="" charset="utf-8" src="//platform.twitter.com/widgets.js"></script><i>Thoughts/context: lol, no.</i><br />
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<a href="https://twitter.com/therealestDAN">@therealestdan</a> Amazing w/ ur keen insights you have only 217 followers after 9491 post (.0228 followers per post). The mkt has spoken - LOL.<br />
— RJ Bell (@RJinVegas) <a href="https://twitter.com/RJinVegas/status/292056322361405440">January 17, 2013</a></blockquote>
<script async="" charset="utf-8" src="//platform.twitter.com/widgets.js"></script><i>Thoughts/context: Sometimes RJ's posts provide keen insights into how he views the world. This is one of those times.</i><br />
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<b>(5) Beyonce Cleavage vs. (12) Never Again</b><br />
<blockquote class="twitter-tweet" lang="en">
I'm honestly not sure how my life has reached this point, but here we are. <a href="http://t.co/5iDhCzrG">http://t.co/5iDhCzrG</a> <a href="https://twitter.com/hashtag/beyonce?src=hash">#beyonce</a> <a href="https://twitter.com/hashtag/cleavage?src=hash">#cleavage</a> <a href="https://twitter.com/hashtag/props?src=hash">#props</a><br />
— Jacob W. Schaller (@vegasWATCH) <a href="https://twitter.com/vegasWATCH/status/298538235087450112">February 4, 2013</a></blockquote>
<script async="" charset="utf-8" src="//platform.twitter.com/widgets.js"></script><i>Thoughts/context: There was a <a href="http://deadspin.com/5981631/heres-a-really-sad-email-from-a-guy-who-lost-a-prop-bet-on-beyonces-lack-of-cleavage">Deadspin post</a> written about this tweat, yet it's only the five seed. Strong field, IMO.</i><br />
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<blockquote class="twitter-tweet" lang="en">
I will never watch football again if this hapens. MT <a href="https://twitter.com/RJinVegas">@RJinVegas</a>: Changes to CFB committee? <a href="https://twitter.com/ESPN_Colin">@ESPN_Colin</a> suggests a Vegas voice like me.<br />
— Kunks Even (@Kunk7) <a href="https://twitter.com/Kunk7/status/394456061325111297">October 27, 2013</a></blockquote>
<script async="" charset="utf-8" src="//platform.twitter.com/widgets.js"></script><i>Thoughts/context: Good joek, Knuk.</i><br />
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<a class="OPP-powered-by" href="https://www.easypolls.net/" style="text-decoration: none;">web polls</a></div>
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<b>(4) Smug Sense vs. (13) Na Ga Happen 2</b><br />
<blockquote class="twitter-tweet" lang="en">
As somebody with an unearned smug sense of superiority, I'm AMAZED at some other people's unearned smug sense of superiority.<br />
— Bill Barnwell (@billbarnwell) <a href="https://twitter.com/billbarnwell/status/376062958465740801">September 6, 2013</a></blockquote>
<script async="" charset="utf-8" src="//platform.twitter.com/widgets.js"></script><i>Thoughts/context: Friend of the blog Billy did not appreciate <a href="http://www.vegaswatch.org/2013/09/how-not-to-handicap-prop-bet-2013.html">my commentary</a>, for whatever reason.</i><br />
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<blockquote class="twitter-tweet" lang="en">
Can't believe anyone would suggest that any team, much less a freshman dominated one, could go undefeated in college hoops. Na. Ga. Happen.<br />
— Seth Davis (@SethDavisHoops) <a href="https://twitter.com/SethDavisHoops/status/390624323456991232">October 16, 2013</a></blockquote>
<script async="" charset="utf-8" src="//platform.twitter.com/widgets.js"></script><i>Thoughts/context: Seth is just building his <a href="https://twitter.com/SethDavisHoops/status/9876260035">#brand</a>.</i><br />
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Vegas Watchhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/02353166004125421683noreply@blogger.com1tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7965585998403674176.post-88493106002828467172015-01-26T11:00:00.000-05:002015-01-26T11:01:29.703-05:00One Tweat Above Them All<br />
Your 2014 Degen Tweat of the Year winner:
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<blockquote class="twitter-tweet" lang="en">
But seriously tweeps its little things like that doing MATH when gambling that makes diff btwn winning & losing - so many cannot do it.<br />
— Patrick Donovan (@SportsBoss) <a href="https://twitter.com/SportsBoss/status/484037243674587136">July 1, 2014</a></blockquote>
<script async="" charset="utf-8" src="//platform.twitter.com/widgets.js"></script><br />
<a name='more'></a>Congratulations to the <a href="https://twitter.com/sportsboss">Sprots Boss</a>, whose tweat dominated throughout:
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<a href="http://2.bp.blogspot.com/-6iGyOMwWjOk/VMZK6HX1QoI/AAAAAAAAFj0/1XxzQNhF8NU/s1600/tlmSHPITAL.png" imageanchor="1" style="clear: left; float: left; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" src="http://2.bp.blogspot.com/-6iGyOMwWjOk/VMZK6HX1QoI/AAAAAAAAFj0/1XxzQNhF8NU/s640/tlmSHPITAL.png" /></a></div>
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TLM's many fans may be interested in our <a href="http://cvillehatersanddegens.blogspot.com/2015/01/introducing-chad-four.html">Super Bowl porps contest</a>; free to enter, and the winner will receive a stitched version of the 2014 DTOTY.<br />
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Also, stay tuned next month for a 2013 DTOTY tournament! If you have any recommended entrants, you can tweet them <a href="https://twitter.com/vegaswatch">at me</a>.<br />
<br />Vegas Watchhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/02353166004125421683noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7965585998403674176.post-16256856111911808352015-01-22T09:39:00.001-05:002015-01-22T09:41:17.480-05:002014 Degen Tweat of the Year: The Ship<br />
F4 results:<br />
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<a href="http://1.bp.blogspot.com/-9pxZ27SBfxw/VMEJ38nhIQI/AAAAAAAAFjg/Sg-0FkRZe0Q/s1600/voting7.png" imageanchor="1" style="clear: left; float: left; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" src="http://1.bp.blogspot.com/-9pxZ27SBfxw/VMEJ38nhIQI/AAAAAAAAFjg/Sg-0FkRZe0Q/s640/voting7.png" /></a></div>
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Both of these matchups got off to very lopsided starts, and neither result was ever in doubt after that. Not as many votes cast as in previous rounds, I guess you don't have to bother voting from every device you own if it's not going to affect the outcome.<br />
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Now for the final; I think both tweats speak for themselves at this point. Voting will be open until Monday at 11am eastern.<br />
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<b>The Ship</b><br />
<b><br /></b>
<b>(1) Invisible Ball</b><br />
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<blockquote class="twitter-tweet" lang="en">
I have always felt Hockey was a faster version of Soccer played on Ice and with an invisible ball.<br />
— Steve Fezzik (@FezzikSports) <a href="https://twitter.com/FezzikSports/status/462054699773202434">May 2, 2014</a></blockquote>
<script async="" charset="utf-8" src="//platform.twitter.com/widgets.js"></script><br />
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<b>(7) Things Like Math</b><br />
<blockquote class="twitter-tweet" lang="en">
But seriously tweeps its little things like that doing MATH when gambling that makes diff btwn winning & losing - so many cannot do it.<br />
— Patrick Donovan (@SportsBoss) <a href="https://twitter.com/SportsBoss/status/484037243674587136">July 1, 2014</a></blockquote>
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<div style="color: grey; font: 9px arial;">
<a class="OPP-powered-by" href="http://www.objectplanet.com/opinio/" style="text-decoration: none;">customer surveys</a></div>
Vegas Watchhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/02353166004125421683noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7965585998403674176.post-85122775784510677902015-01-20T09:19:00.001-05:002015-01-22T09:28:02.018-05:002014 Degen Tweat of the Year: Final Four<br />
E8 results:<br />
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The left side of the bracket really came down to the wire, but in the end we got the semifinal matchup that most pundits have expected since the field was announced. Conversely, the committee's work in the North Korea and Airbud regions left something to be desired, as the combined seeds of those two semifinalists (18) is the highest in DTOTY history.<br />
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The updated bracket:<br />
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<b>National Semifinal #1</b><br />
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<b>(1) Invisible Ball</b><br />
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<blockquote class="twitter-tweet" lang="en">
I have always felt Hockey was a faster version of Soccer played on Ice and with an invisible ball.<br />
— Steve Fezzik (@FezzikSports) <a href="https://twitter.com/FezzikSports/status/462054699773202434">May 2, 2014</a></blockquote>
<script async="" charset="utf-8" src="//platform.twitter.com/widgets.js"></script><br />
The tournament's top seed overcame a difficult draw to get here, edging past both Buy The Hook (56-44) and Is This Earth (55-45). The tweet itself certainly doesn't require any context, but <a href="https://twitter.com/FezzikSports/status/80763802735480832">here</a> is a vaguely related tweet which is funny for several reasons.<br />
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<b>(5) Colorado</b><br />
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<blockquote class="twitter-tweet" lang="en">
<a href="https://twitter.com/ToddFuhrman">@ToddFuhrman</a> hmm looks like Colorado outside my house to me<br />
— rito (@davesthomson) <a href="https://twitter.com/davesthomson/status/550450940244152322">January 1, 2015</a></blockquote>
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<script async="" charset="utf-8" src="//platform.twitter.com/widgets.js"></script>This late entry didn't even receive a bye past the initial round, although going up against I Know Nothing offered a comparable chance of elimination (77-23). Its last two opponents have offered significantly more resistance, with Hook Pop holding its own (58-42) and Never Buy Picks nearly continuing its Cinderella run (52-48).<br />
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<a class="OPP-powered-by" href="https://www.easypolls.net/" style="text-decoration: none;">free polls</a></div>
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<b>National Semifinal #2</b><br />
<b><br /></b>
<b>(7) Things Like Math</b><br />
<blockquote class="twitter-tweet" lang="en">
But seriously tweeps its little things like that doing MATH when gambling that makes diff btwn winning & losing - so many cannot do it.<br />
— Patrick Donovan (@SportsBoss) <a href="https://twitter.com/SportsBoss/status/484037243674587136">July 1, 2014</a></blockquote>
TLM seems to have taken some motivation out of receiving a questionably low seed, with a nice S16 performance against Skineater GTA (69-31) followed by a comfortable "wrong team favored" victory over Pregame DPRK (61-39). Given its F4 opponent, it seems only fair to provide the tweat's full context here:<br />
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<blockquote class="twitter-tweet" lang="en">
I swear I will now never tweet about <a href="https://twitter.com/SportsBoss">@sportsboss</a> ever again. Never pay anyone money for sports picks. Thx. <a href="http://t.co/oBWxV7SsKq">pic.twitter.com/oBWxV7SsKq</a><br />
— Kunks Even (@Kunk7) <a href="https://twitter.com/Kunk7/status/484057499994423297">July 1, 2014</a></blockquote>
<script async="" charset="utf-8" src="//platform.twitter.com/widgets.js"></script><br />
Follow @Knuk7.<br />
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<b>(11) Never Promoted</b><br />
<blockquote class="twitter-tweet" lang="en">
Don't mind if I do! RT <a href="https://twitter.com/jasonrmcintyre">@jasonrmcintyre</a> show me where i "promoted" him/anyone sell picks. <a href="http://t.co/dpD8s1vEWC">pic.twitter.com/dpD8s1vEWC</a><br />
— Jacob W. Schaller (@vegasWATCH) <a href="https://twitter.com/vegasWATCH/status/523200943236841473">October 17, 2014</a></blockquote>
<script async="" charset="utf-8" src="//platform.twitter.com/widgets.js"></script>The strongest tweat based on the first three rounds of data according in both Pomeroy and Sagarin's systems. NP crushed Zero Redeeming Qualities (77-23), obliterated FSU Underdogs (93-7), and then cruised to victory over Airbud vs. Sixers (61-39). Those first two victories could be attributed to a favorable draw, but it really silenced the critics with its E8 performance.<br />
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<a class="OPP-powered-by" href="http://www.objectplanet.com/opinio/" style="text-decoration: none;">surveys</a></div>
Vegas Watchhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/02353166004125421683noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7965585998403674176.post-50770308150299416252015-01-14T17:16:00.000-05:002015-01-14T17:16:58.817-05:002014 Degen Tweat of the Year: Elite 8<br />
R1P2 results:<br />
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<a href="http://4.bp.blogspot.com/-5sY6WivXUrw/VLakAyYA7lI/AAAAAAAAFh8/hP4JVHhqfes/s1600/voting5.png" imageanchor="1" style="clear: left; float: left; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" src="http://4.bp.blogspot.com/-5sY6WivXUrw/VLakAyYA7lI/AAAAAAAAFh8/hP4JVHhqfes/s640/voting5.png" /></a></div>
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Updated bracket:<br />
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<a href="http://4.bp.blogspot.com/-JbhUmEoBMUo/VLbk5hsuh5I/AAAAAAAAFic/arR6ISbYuu8/s1600/bracket6.png" imageanchor="1" style="clear: left; float: left; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" src="http://4.bp.blogspot.com/-JbhUmEoBMUo/VLbk5hsuh5I/AAAAAAAAFic/arR6ISbYuu8/s1600/bracket6.png" height="334" width="640" /></a></div>
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Now things really get serious:<br />
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<b>(1) Invisible Ball vs. (8) Is This Earth?</b><br />
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<blockquote class="twitter-tweet" lang="en">
I have always felt Hockey was a faster version of Soccer played on Ice and with an invisible ball.<br />
— Steve Fezzik (@FezzikSports) <a href="https://twitter.com/FezzikSports/status/462054699773202434">May 2, 2014</a></blockquote>
<script async="" charset="utf-8" src="//platform.twitter.com/widgets.js"></script><i>Thoughts/context: Top overall seed managed to hold off its <a href="https://twitter.com/kellyinvegas/status/532985869117169664">opponent</a> despite the <a href="https://twitter.com/kellyinvegas/status/554457160491360256">unfortunate timing</a> of R2.</i><br />
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-600 is 61%? Is this Earth? You're a fucking idiot RJ. RT <a href="https://twitter.com/RJinVegas">@RJinVegas</a>: LeBron odds: Mia -600 (61%); Cle 5/1 (12%); LAC 7/1 (9%)<br />
— Mike Margolis (@margosports) <a href="https://twitter.com/margosports/status/481535640501096448">June 24, 2014</a></blockquote>
<script async="" charset="utf-8" src="//platform.twitter.com/widgets.js"></script><i>Thoughts/context: <a href="http://www.vegaswatch.org/2014/09/the-long-con-of-rjinvegas-is-this-earth.html">#math</a>.</i><br />
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<script src="http://www.easypolls.net/ext/scripts/emPoll.js?p=54b6e6e5e4b085691df77cd4" type="text/javascript"></script><a class="OPP-powered-by" href="http://www.objectplanet.com/opinio/" style="text-decoration: none;"></a><br />
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<a class="OPP-powered-by" href="http://www.objectplanet.com/opinio/" style="text-decoration: none;">survey service</a></div>
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<b>(5) Colorado vs. (13) Never Buy Picks</b><br />
<blockquote class="twitter-tweet" lang="en">
<a href="https://twitter.com/ToddFuhrman">@ToddFuhrman</a> hmm looks like Colorado outside my house to me<br />
— rito (@davesthomson) <a href="https://twitter.com/davesthomson/status/550450940244152322">January 1, 2015</a></blockquote>
<script async="" charset="utf-8" src="//platform.twitter.com/widgets.js"></script><i>Thoughts/context: T$$D still has not answered the <a href="https://twitter.com/NeastWS/status/550378628782235648">initial question</a>. </i><br />
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<blockquote class="twitter-tweet" lang="en">
Since I'll probably never have more people listening to me than I do now, let me say this: never ever buy picks from anybody ever<br />
— David Frohardt-Lane (@dfl514) <a href="https://twitter.com/dfl514/status/508631691129544704">September 7, 2014</a></blockquote>
<script async="" charset="utf-8" src="//platform.twitter.com/widgets.js"></script><i>Thoughts/context: This one was a bit underseeded from the start, apparently.</i><br />
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<script src="http://www.easypolls.net/ext/scripts/emPoll.js?p=54b6e8cae4b085691df77cda" type="text/javascript"></script><a class="OPP-powered-by" href="http://www.objectplanet.com/opinio/" style="text-decoration: none;"></a><br />
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<a class="OPP-powered-by" href="http://www.objectplanet.com/opinio/" style="text-decoration: none;">polls</a></div>
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<b>(2) Pregame DPRK vs. (7) Things Like Math</b><br />
<blockquote class="twitter-tweet" lang="en">
<a href="https://twitter.com/DieHard4BigBlue">@DieHard4BigBlue</a> <a href="https://twitter.com/WagerMinds">@WagerMinds</a> <a href="https://twitter.com/RJinVegas">@RJinVegas</a> <a href="https://twitter.com/jasonrmcintyre">@jasonrmcintyre</a> Pregame is EXACTLY like North Korea.<br />
— Josh Engleman (@JoshEngleman) <a href="https://twitter.com/JoshEngleman/status/523187483769864192">October 17, 2014</a></blockquote>
<script async="" charset="utf-8" src="//platform.twitter.com/widgets.js"></script><i>Thoughts/context: None.</i><br />
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<blockquote class="twitter-tweet" lang="en">
But seriously tweeps its little things like that doing MATH when gambling that makes diff btwn winning & losing - so many cannot do it.<br />
— Patrick Donovan (@SportsBoss) <a href="https://twitter.com/SportsBoss/status/484037243674587136">July 1, 2014</a></blockquote>
<script async="" charset="utf-8" src="//platform.twitter.com/widgets.js"></script><i>Thoughts/context: All-important context <a href="https://twitter.com/kunk7/status/484057499994423297">here</a>.</i><br />
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<script src="http://www.easypolls.net/ext/scripts/emPoll.js?p=54b6e999e4b085691df77cde" type="text/javascript"></script><a class="OPP-powered-by" href="https://www.easypolls.net/" style="text-decoration: none;"></a><br />
<div style="color: grey; font: 9px arial;">
<a class="OPP-powered-by" href="https://www.easypolls.net/" style="text-decoration: none;">online polls</a></div>
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<b>(11) Never Promoted vs. (3) Airbud vs. Sixers</b><br />
<blockquote class="twitter-tweet" lang="en">
Don't mind if I do! RT <a href="https://twitter.com/jasonrmcintyre">@jasonrmcintyre</a> show me where i "promoted" him/anyone sell picks. <a href="http://t.co/dpD8s1vEWC">pic.twitter.com/dpD8s1vEWC</a><br />
— Jacob W. Schaller (@vegasWATCH) <a href="https://twitter.com/vegasWATCH/status/523200943236841473">October 17, 2014</a></blockquote>
<script async="" charset="utf-8" src="//platform.twitter.com/widgets.js"></script><i>Thoughts/context: Humbling.</i><br />
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<blockquote class="twitter-tweet" lang="en">
<a href="https://twitter.com/golfodds">@golfodds</a> <a href="https://twitter.com/vegasWATCH">@vegasWATCH</a> <a href="https://twitter.com/middysworld">@middysworld</a> what would spread be if a team of Airbuds played the 76ers? Now that it's been asked you must answer!<br />
— Nick W. Schaller (@NeastWS) <a href="https://twitter.com/NeastWS/status/535496228696383488">November 20, 2014</a></blockquote>
<script async="" charset="utf-8" src="//platform.twitter.com/widgets.js"></script><i>Thoughts/context: Taught him everything he knows, ldo.</i><br />
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<div style="color: grey; font: 9px arial;">
<a class="OPP-powered-by" href="https://www.easypolls.net/" style="text-decoration: none;">free polls</a></div>
Vegas Watchhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/02353166004125421683noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7965585998403674176.post-82164598064833890562015-01-13T12:59:00.000-05:002015-01-13T13:00:39.470-05:002014 Degen Tweat of the Year: Round 2 (North Korea & Airbud Regions)<br />
R2P1 results:<br />
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<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="http://4.bp.blogspot.com/-YFEGf33gfcY/VLVUmSRWPfI/AAAAAAAAFhY/oFl563UDPYk/s1600/voting4.png" imageanchor="1" style="clear: left; float: left; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" src="http://4.bp.blogspot.com/-YFEGf33gfcY/VLVUmSRWPfI/AAAAAAAAFhY/oFl563UDPYk/s1600/voting4.png" height="314" width="640" /></a></div>
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Updated bracket:<br />
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<a href="http://2.bp.blogspot.com/-72PVZyoWH7I/VLVVTOxNOsI/AAAAAAAAFhg/xmxh7-Kv7Ug/s1600/bracket3.png" imageanchor="1" style="clear: left; float: left; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" src="http://2.bp.blogspot.com/-72PVZyoWH7I/VLVVTOxNOsI/AAAAAAAAFhg/xmxh7-Kv7Ug/s1600/bracket3.png" height="334" width="640" /></a></div>
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Finishing out R2:<br />
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<b>(2) Pregame DPRK vs. (15) My Bet History</b><br />
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<blockquote class="twitter-tweet" lang="en">
<a href="https://twitter.com/DieHard4BigBlue">@DieHard4BigBlue</a> <a href="https://twitter.com/WagerMinds">@WagerMinds</a> <a href="https://twitter.com/RJinVegas">@RJinVegas</a> <a href="https://twitter.com/jasonrmcintyre">@jasonrmcintyre</a> Pregame is EXACTLY like North Korea.<br />
— Josh Engleman (@JoshEngleman) <a href="https://twitter.com/JoshEngleman/status/523187483769864192">October 17, 2014</a></blockquote>
<script async="" charset="utf-8" src="//platform.twitter.com/widgets.js"></script>
<i>Thoughts/context: Things predictably <a href="https://twitter.com/JoshEngleman/status/523187483769864192">devolved from here</a>.</i><br />
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<blockquote class="twitter-tweet" lang="en">
DG2: If I want to know who the pros are betting all I have to do is open my Pinnacle bet history.<br />
— Degen Chat (@degenchat) <a href="https://twitter.com/degenchat/status/527837013014478848">October 30, 2014</a></blockquote>
<script async="" charset="utf-8" src="//platform.twitter.com/widgets.js"></script><i>Thoughts/context: None.</i><br />
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<script src="http://www.easypolls.net/ext/scripts/emPoll.js?p=54b55706e4b085691df77755" type="text/javascript"></script><a class="OPP-powered-by" href="http://www.objectplanet.com/opinio/" style="text-decoration: none;"></a><br />
<div style="color: grey; font: 9px arial;">
<a class="OPP-powered-by" href="http://www.objectplanet.com/opinio/" style="text-decoration: none;">customer surveys</a></div>
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<b>(7) Things Like Math vs. (10) Skineater GTA</b><br />
<blockquote class="twitter-tweet" lang="en">
But seriously tweeps its little things like that doing MATH when gambling that makes diff btwn winning & losing - so many cannot do it.<br />
— Patrick Donovan (@SportsBoss) <a href="https://twitter.com/SportsBoss/status/484037243674587136">July 1, 2014</a></blockquote>
<script async="" charset="utf-8" src="//platform.twitter.com/widgets.js"></script><i>Thoughts/context: Follow <a href="https://twitter.com/kunk7/status/484057499994423297">@Knuk7</a>.</i><br />
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<a href="http://1.bp.blogspot.com/-X_hXDARdTRQ/VLVX4mwT7FI/AAAAAAAAFhs/u-avCiBSRcg/s1600/skineater.png" imageanchor="1" style="clear: left; float: left; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" src="http://1.bp.blogspot.com/-X_hXDARdTRQ/VLVX4mwT7FI/AAAAAAAAFhs/u-avCiBSRcg/s640/skineater.png" /></a></div>
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<i>Thoughts/context: "<a href="http://topsy.com/s?q=from%3Abillbarnwell&type=tweet&sort=-date&mintime=1407639600">Showing my naiveté</a>" lol.</i><br />
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<script src="http://www.easypolls.net/ext/scripts/emPoll.js?p=54b55932e4b085691df7775f" type="text/javascript"></script><a class="OPP-powered-by" href="http://www.objectplanet.com/opinio/" style="text-decoration: none;"></a><br />
<div style="color: grey; font: 9px arial;">
<a class="OPP-powered-by" href="http://www.objectplanet.com/opinio/" style="text-decoration: none;">customer surveys</a></div>
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<b>(6) FSU Underdogs vs. (11) Never Promoted</b><br />
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<blockquote class="twitter-tweet" lang="en">
Florida St expected to be UNDERDOGS vs. Miami-Fl next week (via Vegas oddsmaker <a href="https://twitter.com/llased">@llased</a>)<br />
— RJ Bell (@RJinVegas) <a href="https://twitter.com/RJinVegas/status/529803782603800576">November 5, 2014</a></blockquote>
<script async="" charset="utf-8" src="//platform.twitter.com/widgets.js"></script><i>Thoughts/context: Not <a href="http://www.vegaswatch.org/2014/11/the-long-con-of-rjinvegas-retweetstho.html">quite</a>.</i><br />
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<blockquote class="twitter-tweet" lang="en">
Don't mind if I do! RT <a href="https://twitter.com/jasonrmcintyre">@jasonrmcintyre</a> show me where i "promoted" him/anyone sell picks. <a href="http://t.co/dpD8s1vEWC">pic.twitter.com/dpD8s1vEWC</a><br />
— Jacob W. Schaller (@vegasWATCH) <a href="https://twitter.com/vegasWATCH/status/523200943236841473">October 17, 2014</a></blockquote>
<script async="" charset="utf-8" src="//platform.twitter.com/widgets.js"></script><i>Thoughts/context: Definition <a href="https://twitter.com/jasonrmcintyre/status/554414524384964608">remains controversial</a>.</i><br />
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<script src="http://www.easypolls.net/ext/scripts/emPoll.js?p=54b55b02e4b085691df77766" type="text/javascript"></script><a class="OPP-powered-by" href="http://www.objectplanet.com/opinio/" style="text-decoration: none;"></a><br />
<div style="color: grey; font: 9px arial;">
<a class="OPP-powered-by" href="http://www.objectplanet.com/opinio/" style="text-decoration: none;">panel management</a></div>
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<b>(3) Airbud vs. Sixers vs. (14) Shitty Info</b><br />
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<blockquote class="twitter-tweet" lang="en">
<a href="https://twitter.com/golfodds">@golfodds</a> <a href="https://twitter.com/vegasWATCH">@vegasWATCH</a> <a href="https://twitter.com/middysworld">@middysworld</a> what would spread be if a team of Airbuds played the 76ers? Now that it's been asked you must answer!<br />
— Nick W. Schaller (@NeastWS) <a href="https://twitter.com/NeastWS/status/535496228696383488">November 20, 2014</a></blockquote>
<script async="" charset="utf-8" src="//platform.twitter.com/widgets.js"></script><i>Thoughts/context: My opinion <a href="https://twitter.com/vegasWATCH/status/535490416494538752">remains unchanged</a>.</i><br />
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<blockquote class="twitter-tweet" lang="en">
<a href="https://twitter.com/SportsInsights">@SportsInsights</a> <a href="https://twitter.com/thickSLICING">@thickSLICING</a> <a href="https://twitter.com/vegasWATCH">@vegasWATCH</a> so because it's free, it's ok for it to be shitty information?<br />
— Josh Engleman (@JoshEngleman) <a href="https://twitter.com/JoshEngleman/status/498820908900184064">August 11, 2014</a></blockquote>
<script async="" charset="utf-8" src="//platform.twitter.com/widgets.js"></script><i>Thoughts/context: Like Airbud vs. Sixers, this was a <a href="https://twitter.com/thickSLICING/status/498819273943699456">conversation ender</a>.</i><br />
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<script src="http://www.easypolls.net/ext/scripts/emPoll.js?p=54b55ca4e4b085691df7776e" type="text/javascript"></script><a class="OPP-powered-by" href="http://www.objectplanet.com/opinio/" style="text-decoration: none;"></a><br />
<div style="color: grey; font: 9px arial;">
<a class="OPP-powered-by" href="http://www.objectplanet.com/opinio/" style="text-decoration: none;">survey hosting</a></div>
Vegas Watchhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/02353166004125421683noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7965585998403674176.post-39158859726711851862015-01-12T12:13:00.000-05:002015-01-12T12:13:42.621-05:002014 Degen Tweat of the Year: Round 2 (Fezz & T$$D Regions)<br />
R1P2 results:<br />
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<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;">
<a href="http://1.bp.blogspot.com/-nrtH4gNCe3I/VLP1gnohUSI/AAAAAAAAFg8/YC6Lb4oZHFU/s1600/voting3.png" imageanchor="1" style="clear: left; float: left; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" src="http://1.bp.blogspot.com/-nrtH4gNCe3I/VLP1gnohUSI/AAAAAAAAFg8/YC6Lb4oZHFU/s1600/voting3.png" height="316" width="640" /></a></div>
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Bracket:<br />
<a name='more'></a><br />
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<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="http://2.bp.blogspot.com/-X_J56CDNuuc/VLP2ZOnf0UI/AAAAAAAAFhE/MM7r7DKYdW8/s1600/bracket2.png" imageanchor="1" style="clear: left; float: left; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" src="http://2.bp.blogspot.com/-X_J56CDNuuc/VLP2ZOnf0UI/AAAAAAAAFhE/MM7r7DKYdW8/s1600/bracket2.png" height="334" width="640" /></a></div>
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Today's matchups:<br />
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<b>(1) Invisible Ball vs. (16) Buying the Hook</b><br />
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<blockquote class="twitter-tweet" lang="en">
I have always felt Hockey was a faster version of Soccer played on Ice and with an invisible ball.<br />
— Steve Fezzik (@FezzikSports) <a href="https://twitter.com/FezzikSports/status/462054699773202434">May 2, 2014</a></blockquote>
<script async="" charset="utf-8" src="//platform.twitter.com/widgets.js"></script><i>Thoughts/context: No way.</i><br />
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<blockquote class="twitter-tweet" lang="en">
<a href="https://twitter.com/Fishyiez">@Fishyiez</a> I always buy the hook. Ever lost by .5? It's shitty.<br />
— Kelly (@kellyinvegas) <a href="https://twitter.com/kellyinvegas/status/532985869117169664">November 13, 2014</a></blockquote>
<i>Thoughts/context: She's really <a href="https://twitter.com/wackabrew/status/554475068072689666">going to war</a> on this one.</i>
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<script src="http://www.easypolls.net/ext/scripts/emPoll.js?p=54b3fb4de4b09d0221fd71a6" type="text/javascript"></script><a class="OPP-powered-by" href="https://www.easypolls.net/" style="text-decoration: none;"></a><br />
<div style="color: grey; font: 9px arial;">
<a class="OPP-powered-by" href="https://www.easypolls.net/" style="text-decoration: none;">polls</a></div>
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<b>(8) Is This Earth? vs. (9) Cut Off Convo</b><br />
<blockquote class="twitter-tweet" lang="en">
-600 is 61%? Is this Earth? You're a fucking idiot RJ. RT <a href="https://twitter.com/RJinVegas">@RJinVegas</a>: LeBron odds: Mia -600 (61%); Cle 5/1 (12%); LAC 7/1 (9%)<br />
— Mike Margolis (@margosports) <a href="https://twitter.com/margosports/status/481535640501096448">June 24, 2014</a></blockquote>
<script async="" charset="utf-8" src="//platform.twitter.com/widgets.js"></script><i>Thoughts/context: <a href="http://www.vegaswatch.org/2014/09/the-long-con-of-rjinvegas-is-this-earth.html">#math</a></i><br />
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<blockquote class="twitter-tweet" lang="en">
<a href="https://twitter.com/AnonymousGamblr">@AnonymousGamblr</a> <a href="https://twitter.com/RASPicks">@RASPicks</a> yeah he cut off that conversation faster than your shop cuts off winners.<br />
— Spraguer (@_Spraguer) <a href="https://twitter.com/_Spraguer/status/441717840169951232">March 6, 2014</a></blockquote>
<i>Thoughts/context: Nah.</i><br />
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<script src="http://www.easypolls.net/ext/scripts/emPoll.js?p=54b3fd63e4b09d0221fd71a9" type="text/javascript"></script><a class="OPP-powered-by" href="http://www.objectplanet.com/opinio/" style="text-decoration: none;"></a><br />
<div style="color: grey; font: 9px arial;">
<a class="OPP-powered-by" href="http://www.objectplanet.com/opinio/" style="text-decoration: none;">panel management</a></div>
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<b>(5) Colorado vs. (12) Hook Pop</b><br />
<blockquote class="twitter-tweet" lang="en">
<a href="https://twitter.com/ToddFuhrman">@ToddFuhrman</a> hmm looks like Colorado outside my house to me<br />
— rito (@davesthomson) <a href="https://twitter.com/davesthomson/status/550450940244152322">January 1, 2015</a></blockquote>
<i>Thoughts/context: Bumped this up to the 5 seed despite not getting a bye because I think it is a very good tweat.</i><br />
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<a href="https://twitter.com/BlanksTweets">@BlanksTweets</a> only way to do it, debated myself but never had the hook pop while I was waiting on my number<br />
— Todd Fuhrman (@ToddFuhrman) <a href="https://twitter.com/ToddFuhrman/status/419994412010061825">January 6, 2014</a></blockquote>
<script async="" charset="utf-8" src="//platform.twitter.com/widgets.js"></script><i>Thoughts/context: T$$D is a fake shrap, and really an incredible presence in this region.</i>
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<script src="http://www.easypolls.net/ext/scripts/emPoll.js?p=54b3fe79e4b09d0221fd71ad" type="text/javascript"></script><a class="OPP-powered-by" href="http://www.objectplanet.com/opinio/" style="text-decoration: none;"></a><br />
<div style="color: grey; font: 9px arial;">
<a class="OPP-powered-by" href="http://www.objectplanet.com/opinio/" style="text-decoration: none;">customer survey</a></div>
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<b>(4) Pros Blocked vs. (13) Never Buy Picks</b><br />
<blockquote class="twitter-tweet" lang="en">
JOES: squawking for pros&joes from <a href="https://twitter.com/ToddFuhrman">@ToddFuhrman</a>
PROS: <blocked><br />
— jbxx (@jbxx21) <a href="https://twitter.com/jbxx21/status/523865410345512960">October 19, 2014</a></blockquote>
<script async="" charset="utf-8" src="//platform.twitter.com/widgets.js"></script><i>Thoughts/context: Increasingly accurate by the day.</i><br />
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<blockquote class="twitter-tweet" lang="en">
Since I'll probably never have more people listening to me than I do now, let me say this: never ever buy picks from anybody ever<br />
— David Frohardt-Lane (@dfl514) <a href="https://twitter.com/dfl514/status/508631691129544704">September 7, 2014</a></blockquote>
<i>Thoughts/context: Dominated in R1, now we find out if that was just an advantageous matchup against yet another T$$D tweat, or if floks just love the straightforwardness here.</i><br />
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<script src="http://www.easypolls.net/ext/scripts/emPoll.js?p=54b4004ae4b09d0221fd71b3" type="text/javascript"></script><a class="OPP-powered-by" href="http://www.objectplanet.com/opinio/" style="text-decoration: none;"></a><br />
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<a class="OPP-powered-by" href="http://www.objectplanet.com/opinio/" style="text-decoration: none;">customer survey</a></div>
Vegas Watchhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/02353166004125421683noreply@blogger.com1tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7965585998403674176.post-39945820074980094102015-01-09T09:06:00.000-05:002015-01-09T09:06:22.292-05:002014 Degen Tweat of the Year: Round 1, Part 2<br />
R1P1 results:<br />
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<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;">
<a href="http://4.bp.blogspot.com/-fNI1Ki8V7gI/VK_gEKidLyI/AAAAAAAAFgs/fExukm_xk9U/s1600/r1p1.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" src="http://4.bp.blogspot.com/-fNI1Ki8V7gI/VK_gEKidLyI/AAAAAAAAFgs/fExukm_xk9U/s1600/r1p1.png" height="300" width="640" /></a></div>
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R1P2:<br />
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<b>Colorado vs. I Know Nothing</b><br />
<a name='more'></a><blockquote class="twitter-tweet" lang="en">
<a href="https://twitter.com/ToddFuhrman">@ToddFuhrman</a> hmm looks like Colorado outside my house to me<br />
— rito (@davesthomson) <a href="https://twitter.com/davesthomson/status/550450940244152322">January 1, 2015</a></blockquote>
<i>Thoughts/context: Whole exchange is <a href="https://twitter.com/davesthomson/status/550429129724538881">amazing</a>.</i><br />
<script async="" charset="utf-8" src="//platform.twitter.com/widgets.js"></script><br />
<blockquote class="twitter-tweet" lang="en">
I've covered this beat 15 years, but, right, I know nothing RT <a href="https://twitter.com/vegasWATCH">@vegaswatch</a>: You have no idea how this shit works. None. And why would you?<br />
— Dave Tuley (@ViewFromVegas) <a href="https://twitter.com/ViewFromVegas/status/422182016063660032">January 12, 2014</a></blockquote>
<i>Thoughts/context: #teamREC</i><br />
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<script src="http://www.easypolls.net/ext/scripts/emPoll.js?p=54af0e67e4b09d0221fca696" type="text/javascript"></script><a class="OPP-powered-by" href="http://www.objectplanet.com/opinio/" style="text-decoration: none;"></a><br />
<div style="color: grey; font: 9px arial;">
<a class="OPP-powered-by" href="http://www.objectplanet.com/opinio/" style="text-decoration: none;">polls</a></div>
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<b>Sideline Reporting vs. Cut Off That Convo</b><br />
<blockquote class="twitter-tweet" lang="en">
Anything else this would apply to? RT <a href="https://twitter.com/JayKornegay">@JayKornegay</a> Sideline reporting. There's a reason why they're on the sidelines & not in the booth.<br />
— Jacob W. Schaller (@vegasWATCH) <a href="https://twitter.com/vegasWATCH/status/441621023876984832">March 6, 2014</a></blockquote>
<i>Thoughts/context: Never heard back.</i><br />
<i><br /></i>
<script async="" charset="utf-8" src="//platform.twitter.com/widgets.js"></script><br />
<blockquote class="twitter-tweet" lang="en">
<a href="https://twitter.com/AnonymousGamblr">@AnonymousGamblr</a> <a href="https://twitter.com/RASPicks">@RASPicks</a> yeah he cut off that conversation faster than your shop cuts off winners.<br />
— Spraguer (@_Spraguer) <a href="https://twitter.com/_Spraguer/status/441717840169951232">March 6, 2014</a></blockquote>
<i>Thoughts/context: None.</i><br />
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<script src="http://www.easypolls.net/ext/scripts/emPoll.js?p=54af1022e4b09d0221fca6c0" type="text/javascript"></script><a class="OPP-powered-by" href="http://www.objectplanet.com/opinio/" style="text-decoration: none;"></a><br />
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<a class="OPP-powered-by" href="http://www.objectplanet.com/opinio/" style="text-decoration: none;">panel management</a></div>
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<b>Shitty Info vs. Best Year</b><br />
<blockquote class="twitter-tweet" lang="en">
<a href="https://twitter.com/SportsInsights">@SportsInsights</a> <a href="https://twitter.com/thickSLICING">@thickSLICING</a> <a href="https://twitter.com/vegasWATCH">@vegasWATCH</a> so because it's free, it's ok for it to be shitty information?<br />
— Josh Engleman (@JoshEngleman) <a href="https://twitter.com/JoshEngleman/status/498820908900184064">August 11, 2014</a></blockquote>
<i>Thoughts/context: It is not, IMO.</i><br />
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<script async="" charset="utf-8" src="//platform.twitter.com/widgets.js"></script><br />
<blockquote class="twitter-tweet" lang="en">
.<a href="https://twitter.com/FezzikSports">@FezzikSports</a> 2014 is the current leader for best year out of your past four. Don't screw it up.<br />
— jbxx (@jbxx21) <a href="https://twitter.com/jbxx21/status/418247792125947905">January 1, 2014</a></blockquote>
<i>Thoughts/context: "BLAP" "+110 units" in 2014 so joke's on us I guess.</i><br />
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<script src="http://www.easypolls.net/ext/scripts/emPoll.js?p=54af1242e4b09d0221fca6ec" type="text/javascript"></script><a class="OPP-powered-by" href="http://www.objectplanet.com/opinio/" style="text-decoration: none;"></a><br />
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<a class="OPP-powered-by" href="http://www.objectplanet.com/opinio/" style="text-decoration: none;">feedback surveys</a></div>
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<b>Bearish vs. My Bet History</b><br />
<blockquote class="twitter-tweet" lang="en">
"You're bearish... on analytics... in sports betting"<br />
— thickSLICING (@thickSLICING) <a href="https://twitter.com/thickSLICING/status/439848866838745088">March 1, 2014</a></blockquote>
<i>Thoughts/context: From <a href="http://www.vegaswatch.org/2014/03/ssac14-betting-panel-jay-kornegay.html">Kornegay at Sloan</a>.</i><br />
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<script async="" charset="utf-8" src="//platform.twitter.com/widgets.js"></script><br />
<blockquote class="twitter-tweet" lang="en">
DG2: If I want to know who the pros are betting all I have to do is open my Pinnacle bet history.<br />
— Degen Chat (@degenchat) <a href="https://twitter.com/degenchat/status/527837013014478848">October 30, 2014</a></blockquote>
<i>Thoughts/context: Does seem easier.</i><br />
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<a class="OPP-powered-by" href="http://www.objectplanet.com/opinio/" style="text-decoration: none;">customer surveys</a></div>
Vegas Watchhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/02353166004125421683noreply@blogger.com1tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7965585998403674176.post-25610403304834307792015-01-08T12:46:00.002-05:002015-01-08T12:46:55.862-05:002014 Degen Tweat of the Year: Round 1, Part 1<br />
Twenty-four tweats <a href="https://storify.com/vegaswatch/2014-degen-tweets-of-the-year">made the cut</a>, eight <a href="http://i.imgur.com/jsIFfxU.png">got byes</a>, eight will be voted on tomorrow, leaving eight for today:
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<b>#TERND Sustainability vs. Buying the Hook</b><br />
<a name='more'></a><blockquote class="twitter-tweet" lang="en">
.<a href="https://twitter.com/RJinVegas">@RJinVegas</a> do you expect this <a href="https://twitter.com/hashtag/trend?src=hash">#trend</a> to continue all season?<br />
— NotThatTRICKY (@NotThatTRICKY) <a href="https://twitter.com/NotThatTRICKY/status/519623361626783744">October 7, 2014</a></blockquote>
<i>Thoughts/context: Spelled it wrong. </i><br />
<script async="" charset="utf-8" src="//platform.twitter.com/widgets.js"></script>
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<blockquote class="twitter-tweet" lang="en">
<a href="https://twitter.com/Fishyiez">@Fishyiez</a> I always buy the hook. Ever lost by .5? It's shitty.<br />
— Kelly (@kellyinvegas) <a href="https://twitter.com/kellyinvegas/status/532985869117169664">November 13, 2014</a></blockquote>
<i>Thoughts/context: To be fair, it is shitty. </i><br />
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<script async="" charset="utf-8" src="//platform.twitter.com/widgets.js"></script><script src="http://www.easypolls.net/ext/scripts/emPoll.js?p=54aebc55e4b09d0221fc9a38" type="text/javascript"></script><a class="OPP-powered-by" href="http://www.objectplanet.com/opinio/" style="text-decoration: none;"></a><br />
<div style="color: grey; font: 9px arial;">
<a class="OPP-powered-by" href="http://www.objectplanet.com/opinio/" style="text-decoration: none;">panel management</a><br />
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<b>Skineater GTA vs. Atonement</b><br />
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<i>Thoughts/context: What an asshole!</i><br />
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<blockquote class="twitter-tweet" lang="en">
If fezzik appreciated his customers he'd cut his hands off to atone for stealing from them<br />
— thickSLICING (@thickSLICING) <a href="https://twitter.com/thickSLICING/status/450766585599651840">March 31, 2014</a></blockquote>
<i>Thoughts/context: P straightforward IMO.</i><br />
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<script src="http://www.easypolls.net/ext/scripts/emPoll.js?p=54aebe1fe4b09d0221fc9a6d" type="text/javascript"></script><a class="OPP-powered-by" href="http://www.objectplanet.com/opinio/" style="text-decoration: none;"></a><br />
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<a class="OPP-powered-by" href="http://www.objectplanet.com/opinio/" style="text-decoration: none;">customer surveys</a></div>
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<b>
Never Promoted vs. Zero Redeeming Qualities</b><br />
<blockquote class="twitter-tweet" lang="en">
Don't mind if I do! RT <a href="https://twitter.com/jasonrmcintyre">@jasonrmcintyre</a> show me where i "promoted" him/anyone sell picks. <a href="http://t.co/dpD8s1vEWC">pic.twitter.com/dpD8s1vEWC</a><br />
— Jacob W. Schaller (@vegasWATCH) <a href="https://twitter.com/vegasWATCH/status/523200943236841473">October 17, 2014</a></blockquote>
<i>Thoughts/context: #FF @vegasWATCH</i><br />
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<blockquote class="twitter-tweet" lang="en">
Outside of highly liquid gambling markets, the NFL has zero redeeming qualities<br />
— NotThatTRICKY (@NotThatTRICKY) <a href="https://twitter.com/NotThatTRICKY/status/549426094210686976">December 29, 2014</a></blockquote>
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<i>Thoughts/context: Rude.</i><br />
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<script async="" charset="utf-8" src="//platform.twitter.com/widgets.js"></script><script src="http://www.easypolls.net/ext/scripts/emPoll.js?p=54aebf8ee4b09d0221fc9a9b" type="text/javascript"></script><a class="OPP-powered-by" href="http://www.objectplanet.com/opinio/" style="text-decoration: none;"></a><br />
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<a class="OPP-powered-by" href="http://www.objectplanet.com/opinio/" style="text-decoration: none;">survey service</a></div>
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<b>Rams Teasers vs. Never Buy Picks</b><br />
<blockquote class="twitter-tweet" lang="en">
<a href="https://twitter.com/johnpar68589574">@johnpar68589574</a> think Miami, St Louis, Giants, and Bills all make attractive teaser legs to take over +7<br />
— Todd Fuhrman (@ToddFuhrman) <a href="https://twitter.com/ToddFuhrman/status/521336055124226051">October 12, 2014</a></blockquote>
<script async="" charset="utf-8" src="//platform.twitter.com/widgets.js"></script><i>Thoughts/context: Rams were +3 +111 at Pinny when he tweated this.</i><br />
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<blockquote class="twitter-tweet" lang="en">
Since I'll probably never have more people listening to me than I do now, let me say this: never ever buy picks from anybody ever<br />
— David Frohardt-Lane (@dfl514) <a href="https://twitter.com/dfl514/status/508631691129544704">September 7, 2014</a></blockquote>
<script async="" charset="utf-8" src="//platform.twitter.com/widgets.js"></script><i>Thoughts/context: Undecided until hearing CH Ballers' taek.</i><br />
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<script src="http://www.easypolls.net/ext/scripts/emPoll.js?p=54aec107e4b09d0221fc9acd" type="text/javascript"></script><a class="OPP-powered-by" href="http://www.objectplanet.com/opinio/" style="text-decoration: none;"></a><br />
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<a class="OPP-powered-by" href="http://www.objectplanet.com/opinio/" style="text-decoration: none;">polls</a></div>
Vegas Watchhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/02353166004125421683noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7965585998403674176.post-23185159889727927432014-11-19T09:24:00.001-05:002014-11-19T09:24:29.435-05:00The Long Con of @RJinVegas: #retweetsTHO<br />
<i><span class=""><span class="goog-text-highlight">RJ Bell is the founder and CEO of <a href="http://pregame.com/">Pregame.com</a>, a sports betting website that includes forums, odds, contests, and picks (both of the free and for purchase varieties). It is one of the most successful sites of its kind, in no small part due to the popularity of Bell, who has accumulated </span><a href="https://twitter.com/rjinvegas"><span class="goog-text-highlight">over 90K Twitter followers</span></a><span class="goog-text-highlight"> and established himself as the mainstream media's go-to "expert" for stories involving gambling on sports.</span></span></i><br />
<i><br /></i><i>An American success story if there every was one. That's only one side of it, though. In <a href="http://roughingthepunter.com/forumdisplay.php?f=2">some</a> <a href="http://www.wagerminds.com/blog/?s=rj%20bell">corners</a> of the <a href="http://www.sportsgrid.com/gamblin/why-are-grantland-and-new-york-times-glorifying-sleazy-rj-bell/">internet</a> (including <a href="http://www.vegaswatch.org/search/label/%23WOAT">this blog</a>), there is a feeling that Bell has not found his success in a legitimate way. This is the 15th post in a <a href="http://www.vegaswatch.org/search/label/Long%20Con%20of%20RJ">series</a> detailing the reasoning behind that particular feeling. If you'd like to start at the beginning, it's <a href="http://www.vegaswatch.org/2014/07/the-long-con-of-rjinvegas-defining-value.html">here</a>.</i><br />
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We've previously looked at how, beyond everything else, Bell <a href="http://www.vegaswatch.org/2013/12/the-problem-with-rj.html">cannot be entrusted with simple reporting</a>. Which shouldn't come as a surprise, since he has little reason to "<a href="http://www.vegaswatch.org/2014/11/the-long-con-of-rjinvegas-terndz-part.html">provide accurate facts</a>" and every incentive to draw attention to his #brand by stretching the truth.<br />
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Last week's Florida St.-Miami line gave us another excellent example of his untrustworthiness:<br />
<a name='more'></a><blockquote class="twitter-tweet" lang="en">
Florida St expected to be UNDERDOGS vs. Miami-Fl next week (via Vegas oddsmaker <a href="https://twitter.com/llased">@llased</a>)<br />
— RJ Bell (@RJinVegas) <a href="https://twitter.com/RJinVegas/status/529803782603800576">November 5, 2014</a></blockquote>
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Unlike <a href="http://pregame.com/members/rj_5f00_bell/userbio/default.aspx">RJ</a>, Ed Salmons (<a href="https://twitter.com/llased">@llased</a>) actually is an oddsmaker, at the LVH. Now, how much he is involved with actually originating college football lines is an entirely different question. But let's walk before we can run here; if Salmons actually said that, of course Bell is going to tweet about, as that's about as juicy a CFB #nugget as you'll find.<br />
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<a href="http://pregame.com/pregame-forums/f/12/t/1080312.aspx?pi10417=1">However</a>:<br />
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<a href="http://4.bp.blogspot.com/-nThgapJUA4c/VGydr0MBy_I/AAAAAAAAFfU/I37R_JFGqcY/s1600/welp3.png" imageanchor="1" style="clear: left; float: left; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" src="http://4.bp.blogspot.com/-nThgapJUA4c/VGydr0MBy_I/AAAAAAAAFfU/I37R_JFGqcY/s1600/welp3.png" height="458" width="640" /></a></div>
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This is bullshit.<br />
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Salmons never said he expected the Canes to be favored; Bell never even fucking talked to Salmons before the initial tweet. Bell talked to Sherman, who had been chatting with Salmons. Through that grapevine, Bell caught wind of the fact that Salmons had (maybe!) casually mentioned something about Miami (maybe!) being favored.<br />
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Any respectable journalist (lol) would follow up with Salmons himself prior to moving forward, especially since there was no rush; the standard market for this game wouldn't even be open for another five days. But Bell saw no upside for his #brand in that approach; he already had the nugget that would get him the maximum number of retweets, so he just went ahead and tweeted it, turning a tenuous rumor into a definitive statement.<br />
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It seems the <a href="https://twitter.com/RJinVegas/status/529803782603800576">reaction</a> was even stronger than Bell could have imagined, prompting him to actually follow up with Salmons, now that he'd already banked his 400+ RTs. Predictably, it turned out that he had wildly misquoted "@llased" who (at best) said he thought it was possible that the Canes would be favored by 1 at some point during the week.<br />
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In Bell's mind, this wasn't a failure on his part, but a success, as it provided more content (although this take wasn't nearly as hot):<br />
<blockquote class="twitter-tweet" lang="en">
How good does Vegas think Florida St is? Could they really be underdogs at Miami-FL? <a href="http://t.co/Mct3KcuoIN">http://t.co/Mct3KcuoIN</a><br />
— RJ Bell (@RJinVegas) <a href="https://twitter.com/RJinVegas/status/530126945456250880">November 5, 2014</a></blockquote>
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Then, when the spread was FSU -2.5 on Sunday night (right in line with the early Cantor market that Bell conveniently ignored), the temperature of RJ's take continued to drop, as he turns from trusted expert into interested observer:<br />
<blockquote class="twitter-tweet" lang="en">
Florida St currently -2.5 at Miami-Fl. Will be interesting to see if the predicated sharp Mia action comes in this wk <a href="http://t.co/sBXQWr3Y2t">http://t.co/sBXQWr3Y2t</a><br />
— RJ Bell (@RJinVegas) <a href="https://twitter.com/RJinVegas/status/531626425796034560">November 10, 2014</a></blockquote>
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In the end, the line fluctuated between FSU -2.5 and FSU -1 at the LVH throughout the week, eventually closing at -2.5. So Salmons wasn't far off at all, if you go by what he actually said. Bell was though, pretty much every step of the way.<br />
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Sounds about right. No harm done, however; RJ will probably <a href="https://twitter.com/RJinVegas">surpass 100K followers</a> by Christmas.<br />
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<blockquote class="twitter-tweet" data-conversation="none" lang="en">
<a href="https://twitter.com/Kunk7">@Kunk7</a> <a href="https://twitter.com/vegasWATCH">@vegasWATCH</a> modified version (more terrifying than originally intended) <a href="http://t.co/fkExstFOgn">http://t.co/fkExstFOgn</a><br />
— Nick W. Schaller (@NeastWS) <a href="https://twitter.com/NeastWS/status/534467316009152512">November 17, 2014</a></blockquote>
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<b>Previous <i>Long Con</i> post: <a href="http://www.vegaswatch.org/2014/11/the-long-con-of-rjinvegas-terndz-part.html">#TERNDZ (Part Three)</a></b><br />
<script async="" charset="utf-8" src="//platform.twitter.com/widgets.js"></script>Vegas Watchhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/02353166004125421683noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7965585998403674176.post-40629802785086257242014-11-07T12:30:00.000-05:002014-11-07T12:30:27.517-05:00The Long Con of @RJinVegas: #TERNDZ (Part Three)<br />
<i><span class=""><span class="goog-text-highlight">RJ Bell is the founder and CEO of <a href="http://pregame.com/">Pregame.com</a>, a sports betting website that includes forums, odds, contests, and picks (both of the free and for purchase varieties). It is one of the most successful sites of its kind, in no small part due to the popularity of Bell, who has accumulated </span><a href="https://twitter.com/rjinvegas"><span class="goog-text-highlight">over 80K Twitter followers</span></a><span class="goog-text-highlight"> and established himself as the mainstream media's go-to "expert" for stories involving gambling on sports.</span></span></i><br />
<i><br /></i><i>An American success story if there every was one. That's only one side of it, though. In <a href="http://roughingthepunter.com/forumdisplay.php?f=2">some</a> <a href="http://www.wagerminds.com/blog/?s=rj%20bell">corners</a> of the <a href="http://www.sportsgrid.com/gamblin/why-are-grantland-and-new-york-times-glorifying-sleazy-rj-bell/">internet</a> (including <a href="http://www.vegaswatch.org/search/label/%23WOAT">this blog</a>), there is a feeling that Bell has not found his success in a legitimate way. This is the 14th post in a <a href="http://www.vegaswatch.org/search/label/Long%20Con%20of%20RJ">series</a> detailing the reasoning behind that particular feeling. If you'd like to start at the beginning, it's <a href="http://www.vegaswatch.org/2014/07/the-long-con-of-rjinvegas-defining-value.html">here</a>.</i><br />
<i><br /></i>
This man is out of control. From Monday afternoon:<br />
<blockquote class="twitter-tweet" lang="en">
Entering this week, <a href="https://twitter.com/hashtag/Colts?src=hash">#Colts</a> only team with 6 covers against the Vegas number.<br />
— RJ Bell (@RJinVegas) <a href="https://twitter.com/RJinVegas/status/529346055851098112">November 3, 2014</a></blockquote>
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Great info as always. A slight disagreement, though:<br />
<script async="" charset="utf-8" src="//platform.twitter.com/widgets.js"></script><br />
<blockquote class="twitter-tweet" lang="en">
<a href="https://twitter.com/RJinVegas">@RJinVegas</a> aren't the chiefs 7-1? versus the #? Only loss in week 1.<br />
— Steve Marsicek (@smarsicek19) <a href="https://twitter.com/smarsicek19/status/529347070436458496">November 3, 2014</a></blockquote>
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Hmm. For some clarity, let's check <a href="http://www.covers.com/pageLoader/pageLoader.aspx?page=/data/nfl/teams/pastresults/2014-2015/team3.html">Covers</a> (excluding Week 9, because "entering this week"):<br />
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<a href="http://1.bp.blogspot.com/-Vgh9SNS3di8/VFz7HwmlWnI/AAAAAAAAFe8/kg0KpV4d32I/s1600/terndz.png" imageanchor="1" style="clear: left; float: left; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" src="http://1.bp.blogspot.com/-Vgh9SNS3di8/VFz7HwmlWnI/AAAAAAAAFe8/kg0KpV4d32I/s1600/terndz.png" height="346" width="640" /></a></div>
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Okay, fair enough. If you count the 49ers game as a loss (or even a push), the Chiefs only had five ATS covers coming into the week. Makes sense, as long as you don't...<br />
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<blockquote class="twitter-tweet" lang="en">
<a href="https://twitter.com/hashtag/Chiefs?src=hash">#Chiefs</a> have covered the Vegas spread 7 STRAIGHT games - by a combined 91 points.<br />
— RJ Bell (@RJinVegas) <a href="https://twitter.com/RJinVegas/status/530401944247205888">November 6, 2014</a></blockquote>
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Oh damn it.<br />
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Don't see any getting around this one. RJ is using KC +4.5/5 to make the Colts stat work, and KC +5.5 to claim they've covered seven straight. He was corrected <a href="https://twitter.com/smarsicek19/status/529347070436458496">twice</a> along the <a href="https://twitter.com/smarsicek19/status/530402778749747200">way</a>, and obviously ignored the haters both times.<br />
<script async="" charset="utf-8" src="//platform.twitter.com/widgets.js"></script><br />
<blockquote class="twitter-tweet" lang="en">
<a href="https://twitter.com/keithlaw">@keithlaw</a> <a href="https://twitter.com/WillBrinson">@WillBrinson</a> You may or may not agree. My goal is to provide accurate facts for people to consider and be entertained by.<br />
— RJ Bell (@RJinVegas) <a href="https://twitter.com/RJinVegas/status/523177031409106944">October 17, 2014</a></blockquote>
<b><br /></b>
<b>Previous <i>Long Con</i> post: <a href="http://www.vegaswatch.org/2014/10/the-long-con-of-rjinvegas-terndz-part.html">#TERNDZ (Part Two)</a></b><br />
<script async="" charset="utf-8" src="//platform.twitter.com/widgets.js"></script>Vegas Watchhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/02353166004125421683noreply@blogger.com1tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7965585998403674176.post-41618135727644430652014-10-23T11:44:00.000-04:002014-10-23T11:44:26.550-04:00The Long Con of @RJinVegas: #TERNDZ (Part Two)<br />
<i><span class=""><span class="goog-text-highlight">RJ Bell is the founder and CEO of <a href="http://pregame.com/">Pregame.com</a>, a sports betting website that includes forums, odds, contests, and picks (both of the free and for purchase varieties). It is one of the most successful sites of its kind, in no small part due to the popularity of Bell, who has accumulated </span><a href="https://twitter.com/rjinvegas"><span class="goog-text-highlight">over 80K Twitter followers</span></a><span class="goog-text-highlight"> and established himself as the mainstream media's go-to "expert" for stories involving gambling on sports.</span></span></i><br />
<i><br /></i><i>An American success story if there every was one. That's only one side of it, though. In <a href="http://roughingthepunter.com/forumdisplay.php?f=2">some</a> <a href="http://www.wagerminds.com/blog/?s=rj%20bell">corners</a> of the <a href="http://www.sportsgrid.com/gamblin/why-are-grantland-and-new-york-times-glorifying-sleazy-rj-bell/">internet</a> (including <a href="http://www.vegaswatch.org/search/label/%23WOAT">this blog</a>), there is a feeling that Bell has not found his success in a legitimate way. This is the 13th post in a <a href="http://www.vegaswatch.org/search/label/Long%20Con%20of%20RJ">series</a> detailing the reasoning behind that particular feeling. If you'd like to start at the beginning, it's <a href="http://www.vegaswatch.org/2014/07/the-long-con-of-rjinvegas-defining-value.html">here</a>.</i><br />
<i><br /></i>
Last week, some folks disagreed with each other on the internet. It started with an exchange between <a href="http://images.ak.instagram.com/profiles/profile_609602750_75sq_1383703368.jpg">our protagonist</a> and ESPN MLB writer/analyst <a href="https://twitter.com/keithlaw">Keith Law</a>:<br />
<br />
<a name='more'></a><blockquote class="twitter-tweet" lang="en">
<a href="https://twitter.com/RJinVegas"><br />@RJinVegas</a> <a href="https://twitter.com/WillBrinson">@WillBrinson</a> that's not right. They covered vs Green Bay. But beyond that, isn't record ATS random, or just nonpredictive?<br />
— keithlaw (@keithlaw) <a href="https://twitter.com/keithlaw/status/522915079252377601">October 17, 2014</a></blockquote>
The majority of the discussion ended up being about the second half of this tweet, but I'll take a minute to touch on the first part. The Week 2 NYJ/GB line fluctuated between GB -7 and GB -8 at CRIS throughout the week. The line did indeed close at 7 most places, but plenty of bettors won with Jets +7.5/+8 (they ended up losing by 7). Bell knows this himself, as no shortage of his touts <a href="http://pregame.com/pregame-forums/f/9/p/1064245/2210075.aspx#2210075">lost on Packers -7.5/-8</a>.<br />
<br />
Of course, with #TERNDZ, there's no room for nuance, so Bell just uses the "consensus" closing line. Which is fine, but for practical purposes it doesn't even make sense.<br />
<br />
Forget the cherry picking, multiple arbitrary endpoints, and lack of predictiveness (which we'll get to). Let's consider a practical application. Say it's Tuesday, and Bell tweets out a #TERND for the following Sunday's game. When are you supposed to bet it?<br />
<br />
In general, one could argue that you should bet something like this ASAP, before the market matures and has factored in all the relevant #TERNDZ. On the other hand, these stats rely on the closing line, and Bell himself says:<br />
<blockquote class="twitter-tweet" lang="en">
<a href="https://twitter.com/MitchTaylor85">@MitchTaylor85</a> <a href="https://twitter.com/keithlaw">@keithlaw</a> If the public reacts to it, and thus affects the market, then yes.<br />
— RJ Bell (@RJinVegas) <a href="https://twitter.com/RJinVegas/status/523190919903080448">October 17, 2014</a></blockquote>
So if you act too early in the week, maybe that's bad because the public hasn't yet had time to react to the #TERND? I'm really not sure.<br />
<br />
Trying to figure out how to use these historical, "situational" ATS records to actually bet makes my head hurt. The whole point is to take advantage of the public overreacting, but if this information was actually worthwhile, wouldn't the #shraps already be doing this? Wait, don't answer that, RJ's got it:<br />
<br />
<blockquote class="twitter-tweet" lang="en">
<a href="https://twitter.com/PlusEVAnalytics">@PlusEVAnalytics</a> If you think that my intent is to provide picks for people to follow, you are not watching very closely.<br />
— RJ Bell (@RJinVegas) <a href="https://twitter.com/RJinVegas/status/523231171560628225">October 17, 2014</a></blockquote>
<br />
Oh okay. So we're not supposed to place wagers based on this info at all. Why's that?<br />
<br />
<blockquote class="twitter-tweet" lang="en">
<a href="https://twitter.com/keithlaw">@keithlaw</a> <a href="https://twitter.com/WillBrinson">@WillBrinson</a> Is every fact within ESPN’s game previews predictive? How about the financial data provided on CNBC?<br />
— RJ Bell (@RJinVegas) <a href="https://twitter.com/RJinVegas/status/523176798893654016">October 17, 2014</a></blockquote>
<br />
Bell can provide <a href="https://twitter.com/RJinVegas/status/523159735164743680">example</a> after <a href="https://twitter.com/RJinVegas/status/523160166976729089">example</a> of "proof" of how going against the grain gives you an edge, but the funny thing is that it's all cherry picked. When pressed for anything beyond that, he either provides info that only serves to make your laugh:<br />
<br />
<blockquote class="twitter-tweet" lang="en">
<a href="https://twitter.com/WillBrinson">@WillBrinson</a> <a href="https://twitter.com/keithlaw">@keithlaw</a> Since 1989, teams that covered the prior week: 49.8% ATS the next week. Teams that didn't: 50.2%<br />
— RJ Bell (@RJinVegas) <a href="https://twitter.com/RJinVegas/status/523155830582308864">October 17, 2014</a></blockquote>
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Or moves the goalposts so far that Seabass kicking on the fucking moon couldn't reach them:<br />
<br />
<blockquote class="twitter-tweet" lang="en">
<a href="https://twitter.com/keithlaw">@keithlaw</a> <a href="https://twitter.com/WillBrinson">@WillBrinson</a> You may or may not agree. My goal is to provide accurate facts for people to consider and be entertained by.<br />
— RJ Bell (@RJinVegas) <a href="https://twitter.com/RJinVegas/status/523177031409106944">October 17, 2014</a></blockquote>
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<script async="" charset="utf-8" src="//platform.twitter.com/widgets.js"></script>
This is exhausting. To summarize, with (bullet!) points to which I don't believe anyone would object:<br />
<ul>
<li>Bell's #TERNDZ use arbitrary criteria which are data-mined from the ~infinite potential combinations (teams favored by 3+ the week after losing to a team with a <a href="https://twitter.com/RJinVegas/status/249169436693639168">winged mascot</a>, etc. etc.)</li>
</ul>
<ul>
<li>Bell's #TERNDZ use very arbitrary endpoints which are designed to allow them to be as eye-popping a possible (cutting off the data at <a href="http://1.bp.blogspot.com/-M5pPaAAvHSU/U-T-mzWmimI/AAAAAAAAFcM/Cin-YB1JcHM/s1600/trends2.png">W14 four years ago</a>, etc. etc.)</li>
</ul>
<ul>
<li>Bell uses these two strategies to come up with #TERNDZ which will sound logical to the average fan, thus granting the #TERNDZ more weight/credibility</li>
</ul>
<ul>
<li>These #TERNDZ are not predictive of NFL ATS results going forward</li>
</ul>
<div>
To be clear: the stats/tweets that emerge from this methodology are, by definition, COMPLETELY WORTHLESS. If they came about naturally, rather than being data-mined, that'd be one thing. Or if they were predictive, that would also change the equation. </div>
<div>
<br /></div>
<div>
But if neither of those thing are true (and they aren't!), we're left with one question: what's the fucking point? Data-mind historical trends that don't have any predictive value are a celebration of the wonders of randomness. Nothing more, nothing less. At least in this situation, this:<br />
<br /></div>
<div>
<blockquote class="twitter-tweet" lang="en">
<a href="https://twitter.com/keithlaw">@keithlaw</a> It meant exactly what it stated ... "meant something" and being predictive of the future are two different standards.<br />
— RJ Bell (@RJinVegas) <a href="https://twitter.com/RJinVegas/status/523189607962525696">October 17, 2014</a></blockquote>
<script async="" charset="utf-8" src="//platform.twitter.com/widgets.js"></script>
</div>
...is simply false.<br />
<br />
At this point, Bell would argue that his approach is to let the "<a href="http://www.vegaswatch.org/2014/07/the-long-con-of-rjinvegas-defining-value.html">customers decide what they value</a>". In fact, here he goes again:<br />
<blockquote class="twitter-tweet" lang="en">
<a href="https://twitter.com/keithlaw">@keithlaw</a> <a href="https://twitter.com/WillBrinson">@WillBrinson</a> In no way could me providing the data be interrupted as my encouragement to act on it solely.<br />
— RJ Bell (@RJinVegas) <a href="https://twitter.com/RJinVegas/status/523177135574630400">October 17, 2014</a></blockquote>
<br />
Here we have a guy who runs a tout site acting like he's completely mystified by the idea that any would look at his tweets about ATS NFL #TERNDZ and infer that that information could be used for betting.<br />
<br />
It seems we have two groups here. One group understands these stats are not predictive, considers them to be worthless, and retweets/replies disingenuously. These folks could aptly be described as the "<a href="https://twitter.com/RJinVegas/status/523181763917791232">pathological haters</a>".<br />
<br />
The other group infers that these stats have some predictive value, and/or are recommendations for what to bet on; RJ himself just explained he doesn't believe either of these things to be true. This group is responsible for RJ's sincere retweets/replies, of which there are many. These folks could aptly be described as "<a href="http://pregame.com/pregamepros/index.aspx">potential marks</a>".<br />
<br />
Any response, Randall?<br />
<blockquote class="twitter-tweet" lang="en">
<a href="https://twitter.com/RASPicks">@RASPicks</a> <a href="https://twitter.com/WagerMinds">@WagerMinds</a> Except you are unable to prove any element of a scam because none exists. Just customers deciding what they value.<br />
— RJ Bell (@RJinVegas) <a href="https://twitter.com/RJinVegas/status/441605250374332416">March 6, 2014</a></blockquote>
<br />
Welp.<br />
<br />
<b>Previous <i>Long Con</i> post: <a href="http://www.vegaswatch.org/2014/09/the-long-con-of-rjinvegas-repackaging.html">"Repackaging" Info</a></b><br />
<b>Previous <i>#TERNDZ </i>post: <a href="http://www.vegaswatch.org/2014/08/the-long-con-of-rjinvegas-terndz.html">#TERNDZ</a></b><br />
<script async="" charset="utf-8" src="//platform.twitter.com/widgets.js"></script>
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<script async="" charset="utf-8" src="//platform.twitter.com/widgets.js"></script>Vegas Watchhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/02353166004125421683noreply@blogger.com2tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7965585998403674176.post-91994028630997212882014-09-18T09:38:00.000-04:002014-09-18T09:41:30.823-04:00The Long Con of @RJinVegas: "Repackaging" Info<br />
<i><span class=""><span class="goog-text-highlight">RJ Bell is the founder and CEO of <a href="http://pregame.com/">Pregame.com</a>, a sports betting website that includes forums, odds, contests, and picks (both of the free and for purchase varieties). It is one of the most successful sites of its kind, in no small part due to the popularity of Bell, who has accumulated </span><a href="https://twitter.com/rjinvegas"><span class="goog-text-highlight">over 80K Twitter followers</span></a><span class="goog-text-highlight"> and established himself as the mainstream media's go-to "expert" for stories involving gambling on sports.</span></span></i><br />
<i><br /></i><i>An American success story if there every was one. That's only one side of it, though. In <a href="http://roughingthepunter.com/forumdisplay.php?f=2">some</a> <a href="http://www.wagerminds.com/blog/?s=rj%20bell">corners</a> of the <a href="http://www.sportsgrid.com/gamblin/why-are-grantland-and-new-york-times-glorifying-sleazy-rj-bell/">internet</a> (including <a href="http://www.vegaswatch.org/search/label/%23WOAT">this blog</a>), there is a feeling that Bell has not found his success in a legitimate way. This is the 12th post in a <a href="http://www.vegaswatch.org/search/label/Long%20Con%20of%20RJ">series</a> detailing the reasoning behind that particular feeling. If you'd like to start at the beginning, it's <a href="http://www.vegaswatch.org/2014/07/the-long-con-of-rjinvegas-defining-value.html">here</a>.</i><br />
<i><br /></i>
As noted, Bell tweets out a lot of <a href="http://www.vegaswatch.org/2014/08/the-long-con-of-rjinvegas-world-openers.html">annoying</a>/<a href="http://www.vegaswatch.org/2014/08/the-long-con-of-rjinvegas-terndz.html">worthless</a>/<a href="http://www.vegaswatch.org/2014/08/the-long-con-of-rjinvegas-math.html">false</a> nonsense. But nothing is more frustrating than when he takes other people's (actually interesting!) info and makes it his own. One recent example:<br />
<a name='more'></a><br />
<a href="http://4.bp.blogspot.com/-afK6DfTros4/VBpKgGISBOI/AAAAAAAAFeM/DHPXbmkYK70/s1600/woat4.png" imageanchor="1" style="clear: left; display: inline !important; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-right: 1em; text-align: center;"><img border="0" src="http://4.bp.blogspot.com/-afK6DfTros4/VBpKgGISBOI/AAAAAAAAFeM/DHPXbmkYK70/s1600/woat4.png" height="380" width="640" /></a><br />
<br />
Purdum did the reporting. Purdum wrote the article. Purdum highlighted the interesting anecdote in his tweet. There is absolutely no reason for Bell to do anything but just RT Purdum, except for the fact that Bell wants the RTs and attention for himself and his #brand.<br />
<br />
So he makes his own tweet out of it, even adding that the line was -3, which wasn't mentioned in either Purdum's tweet or his article. Never mind that Bell was almost definitely just guessing on this, and those $100K cards are "ties lose", so the bettor essentially had -3.5, but it's not like that's a key number anyway, right?<br />
<br />
This may be a petty thing to complain about, but I find it to be absolutely enraging, and it keeps coming up:<br />
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<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="http://2.bp.blogspot.com/-4lWyXYEFmSo/VBpHCFWDBPI/AAAAAAAAFeA/NQusTVWY0zU/s1600/woat3.png" imageanchor="1" style="clear: left; float: left; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" src="http://2.bp.blogspot.com/-4lWyXYEFmSo/VBpHCFWDBPI/AAAAAAAAFeA/NQusTVWY0zU/s1600/woat3.png" height="640" width="568" /></a></div>
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I guess he is adding all sorts of value with the #ouch and #cool hashtags?<br />
<br />
Unsatisfied with his standard nonsense, Bell really took things to another level over the summer:<br />
<blockquote class="twitter-tweet" lang="en">
So just to confirm - 10 yrs ago Gerry McIlroy & three friends put £400 at 500-1 on 15 year-old Rory to win The Open before he turned 26.<br />
— Andrew Cotter (@MrAndrewCotter) <a href="https://twitter.com/MrAndrewCotter/status/490522820561350657">July 19, 2014</a></blockquote>
<script async="" charset="utf-8" src="//platform.twitter.com/widgets.js"></script><br />
<blockquote class="twitter-tweet" lang="en">
In 2004, Rory's dad & 3 friends bet £400 at 500-1 for his son to win The Open before 26, according to <a href="https://twitter.com/MrAndrewCotter">@MrAndrewCotter</a>.<br />
— darren rovell (@darrenrovell) <a href="https://twitter.com/darrenrovell/status/490535223000440833">July 19, 2014</a></blockquote>
<script async="" charset="utf-8" src="//platform.twitter.com/widgets.js"></script><br />
<blockquote class="twitter-tweet" lang="en">
When McIlroy was 15, his dad bet $680 at 500/1 that Rory would win British Open by age 25. This year last chance. Pays $340K<br />
— RJ Bell (@RJinVegas) <a href="https://twitter.com/RJinVegas/status/490563615666475008">July 19, 2014</a></blockquote>
<br />
Rovell took the standard repackaging angle, so RJ felt like he had to switch things up. What a crew.<br />
<br />
Bell's tweet above is just straight up theft. And in case you thought there was any chance that he'd gotten this info independently (lol):<br />
<script async="" charset="utf-8" src="//platform.twitter.com/widgets.js"></script><br />
<blockquote class="twitter-tweet" lang="en">
Some media ambiguity whether this year's British Open counts for McIlroy's bet (since Rory is now 25). It does. <a href="https://t.co/xz1PQIDSTQ">https://t.co/xz1PQIDSTQ</a><br />
— RJ Bell (@RJinVegas) <a href="https://twitter.com/RJinVegas/status/490565135342522368">July 19, 2014</a></blockquote>
To summarize: In the tweet that ended up getting 1,769 RTs, Bell didn't deem it necessary to source the info he blatantly stole. In his next tweet, which got 11 RTs, he linked to Cotter's timeline, in an effort to clear up the "ambiguity" he had created by re-wording the tweet that he stole.<br />
<br />
Solid. Bell was so impressed by the response to his stolen tweet that he just kept doing it:<br />
<br />
<blockquote class="twitter-tweet" lang="en">
ICYMI: When McIlroy was 15, his dad bet $680 to win $340,000 that Rory would win British Open before age 26. This year was his last chance.<br />
— RJ Bell (@RJinVegas) <a href="https://twitter.com/RJinVegas/status/490634397172105217">July 19, 2014</a></blockquote>
<script async="" charset="utf-8" src="//platform.twitter.com/widgets.js"></script><br />
<blockquote class="twitter-tweet" lang="en">
McIlroy’s dad (& friends) win $340K on 500/1 bet made 10 years ago that Rory would win British Open before age of 26!<br />
— RJ Bell (@RJinVegas) <a href="https://twitter.com/RJinVegas/status/490910707563913216">July 20, 2014</a></blockquote>
This has nothing to do with being completely ignorant about how betting markets actually work, or having no clue how much HFA is worth, or using data mined trends that sound impressive. This is just a con artist promoting his scam by stealing others' work. Which is fine, I guess, except...stop <a href="https://twitter.com/joedrape/status/508952511139827712">playing into it</a>!<br />
<br />
<b>Previous <i>Long Con</i> post: <a href="http://www.vegaswatch.org/2014/09/the-long-con-of-rjinvegas-q.html">Q&A</a></b><br />
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Vegas Watchhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/02353166004125421683noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7965585998403674176.post-5568356025437005522014-09-04T15:30:00.000-04:002014-09-18T09:40:31.512-04:00The Long Con of @RJinVegas: Q&A<br />
<i><span class=""><span class="goog-text-highlight">RJ Bell is the founder and CEO of <a href="http://pregame.com/">Pregame.com</a>, a sports betting website that includes forums, odds, contests, and picks (both of the free and for purchase varieties). It is one of the most successful sites of its kind, in no small part due to the popularity of Bell, who has accumulated </span><a href="https://twitter.com/rjinvegas"><span class="goog-text-highlight">over 80K Twitter followers</span></a><span class="goog-text-highlight"> and established himself as the mainstream media's go-to "expert" for stories involving gambling on sports.</span></span></i><br />
<i><br /></i><i>An American success story if there every was one. That's only one side of it, though. In <a href="http://roughingthepunter.com/forumdisplay.php?f=2">some</a> <a href="http://www.wagerminds.com/blog/?s=rj%20bell">corners</a> of the <a href="http://www.sportsgrid.com/gamblin/why-are-grantland-and-new-york-times-glorifying-sleazy-rj-bell/">internet</a> (including <a href="http://www.vegaswatch.org/search/label/%23WOAT">this blog</a>), there is a feeling that Bell has not found his success in a legitimate way. This is the 11th post in a <a href="http://www.vegaswatch.org/search/label/Long%20Con%20of%20RJ">series</a> detailing the reasoning behind that particular feeling. If you'd like to start at the beginning, it's <a href="http://www.vegaswatch.org/2014/07/the-long-con-of-rjinvegas-defining-value.html">here</a>.</i><br />
<i><br /></i>
Over the last six weeks, I've written quite a bit about RJ Bell: ten blog posts, including 45 embedded tweets, 18 screengrabbed forum posts, 12 screengrabbed tweets, five charts, and one partially transcribed conference call. Having spent so much time researching and writing about this topic, I figured I should put together a post summarizing my various findings.<br />
<br />
Since folks will be encountering Bell in different circumstances, it seems appropriate to organize my findings by the various questions which may arise.<br />
<a name='more'></a><br />
<b><span style="font-size: large;">Should I buy picks from RJ Bell's website, Pregame.com?</span></b><br />
<b><br /></b>
No matter what, definitely do NOT do this. Those who have good sports betting info use it to make money by actually betting on sports. Those who don't have good info must find another way to profit, often by selling picks. This is a rather worrisome selection bias from the customer's standpoint.<br />
<br />
If you don't believe me, ask the man himself. Bell has made it explicitly clear that he's not providing <a href="http://www.vegaswatch.org/2014/07/the-long-con-of-rjinvegas-defining-value.html">profitable picks</a>, or <a href="http://www.vegaswatch.org/2014/08/the-long-con-of-rjinvegas-terndz.html">trends which you can profit from</a> going forward. Bell's actions also make it clear he feels this way, as he claims to be "100% transparent" but that's <a href="http://www.vegaswatch.org/2014/08/the-long-con-of-rjinvegas-transparency.html">clearly not true</a>, especially when he goes to great lengths to hide both the <a href="http://www.vegaswatch.org/2014/07/the-long-con-of-rjinvegas-bet-like-pro.html">past</a> and <a href="http://www.vegaswatch.org/2014/07/the-long-con-of-rjinvegas-bet-like-pro_30.html">current</a> records of his touts. You'll notice an alarming lack of long-term records on Pregame's site; there's a reason for that.<br />
<br />
And remember, it all comes back to selling picks, since that's how Bell makes money. Everything else he does is with the goal of, one way or another, getting people to his site to sell them unprofitable picks.<br />
<br />
<b><span style="font-size: large;">What about the content you don't have to pay for, like free picks, forums, and Bell's Twitter?</span></b><br />
<b><br /></b>
Well, free losing picks are definitely better than losing picks that cost money, but they're still rather worthless.<br />
<br />
Pregame does also have a very active <a href="http://pregame.com/pregame-forums/f/default.aspx">public message board</a>, but I'm not sure why you'd expect to find any useful information there, particularly since Bell censors it so heavily. Any post that Bell feels is too critical of Pregame and/or bad for business will be deleted, with the poster often finding himself banned. And if you're capable of critical thought it's hard not to be critical of Pregame, so that's not helping matters.<br />
<br />
Then there's <a href="https://twitter.com/rjinvegas">Bell's Twitter feed</a>, which suffers from the fact that Bell is just trying to get people to his tout site, so he tends to tweet out whatever he thinks will get the most RTs/attention. He's <a href="http://www.vegaswatch.org/2014/08/the-long-con-of-rjinvegas-math.html">not very good at math</a> to begin with, and either ignores his errors entirely, tries to sweep them under the rug to preserve his brand, or is <a href="http://www.vegaswatch.org/2014/09/the-long-con-of-rjinvegas-is-this-earth.html">simply unaware of them</a>.<br />
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When Bell attributes a piece of information to "Vegas", he's often either <a href="http://www.vegaswatch.org/2014/08/the-long-con-of-rjinvegas-vegas-says.html">quoting someone as clueless as he is</a>, or a line that's <a href="http://www.vegaswatch.org/2014/08/the-long-con-of-rjinvegas-world-openers.html">completely divorced from the actual market</a>. He knows tweeting these things attracts attention to himself and his tout site, so that's what he does, but you shouldn't trust anything he says.<br />
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<b><span style="font-size: large;">Should I have RJ Bell on my radio show, or use him as a source for an article I'm writing?</span></b><br />
<b><br /></b>
You should not; most of the reasons for this are covered in the two previous questions. To borrow from <a href="http://www.vegaswatch.org/2014/08/the-long-con-of-rjinvegas-math.html">earlier in this series</a>:<br />
<blockquote class="tr_bq">
Despite what he'll tell you, Bell is <a href="http://www.vegaswatch.org/2014/08/the-long-con-of-rjinvegas-vegas-says.html">not knowledgeable</a> when it comes to <a href="http://www.vegaswatch.org/2014/08/the-long-con-of-rjinvegas-world-openers.html">sports betting markets</a>. He is not good at <a href="http://www.vegaswatch.org/2014/08/the-long-con-of-rjinvegas-math.html">math</a>. He has no interest in taking accountability for his mistakes unless he's left with no alternate option. And on top of all that, his incentives are all screwed up, because at the end of the day he just wants to get you to his tout site and sell you some shitty picks. </blockquote>
<blockquote class="tr_bq">
Given all that, why would you ever want to rely on him as a source? </blockquote>
He'll probably give you a great quote, since that's easy when you have no integrity or interest in the truth. But, doesn't really seem worth it?<b><br /></b>
<br />
<i>Complete <a href="http://www.vegaswatch.org/search/label/Long%20Con%20of%20RJ">series</a> archive:</i><br />
<b><a href="http://www.vegaswatch.org/2014/07/the-long-con-of-rjinvegas-defining-value.html">Defining Value</a></b><br />
<b>Bet Like A Pro (Parts <a href="http://www.vegaswatch.org/2014/07/the-long-con-of-rjinvegas-bet-like-pro.html">One</a>, <a href="http://www.vegaswatch.org/2014/07/the-long-con-of-rjinvegas-bet-like-pro_28.html">Two</a>, <a href="http://www.vegaswatch.org/2014/07/the-long-con-of-rjinvegas-bet-like-pro_30.html">Three</a>)</b><br />
<b><a href="http://www.vegaswatch.org/2014/08/the-long-con-of-rjinvegas-transparency.html">"Transparency"</a></b><br />
<b><a href="http://www.vegaswatch.org/2014/08/the-long-con-of-rjinvegas-world-openers.html">World Openers</a></b><br />
<b><a href="http://www.vegaswatch.org/2014/08/the-long-con-of-rjinvegas-math.html">#MATH</a></b><br />
<b><a href="http://www.vegaswatch.org/2014/08/the-long-con-of-rjinvegas-terndz.html">#TERNDZ</a></b><br />
<b><a href="http://www.vegaswatch.org/2014/08/the-long-con-of-rjinvegas-vegas-says.html">"Vegas" Says</a></b><br />
<b><a href="http://www.vegaswatch.org/2014/09/the-long-con-of-rjinvegas-is-this-earth.html">Is This Earth?</a></b><br />
<b><a href="http://www.vegaswatch.org/2014/09/the-long-con-of-rjinvegas-repackaging.html">"Repackaging" Info</a></b><br />
<br />Vegas Watchhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/02353166004125421683noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7965585998403674176.post-77929003754603992142014-09-03T15:22:00.001-04:002014-10-08T14:44:14.377-04:00The Long Con of @RJinVegas: Is This Earth?<br />
<i><span class=""><span class="goog-text-highlight">RJ Bell is the founder and CEO of <a href="http://pregame.com/">Pregame.com</a>, a sports betting website that includes forums, odds, contests, and picks (both of the free and for purchase varieties). It is one of the most successful sites of its kind, in no small part due to the popularity of Bell, who has accumulated </span><a href="https://twitter.com/rjinvegas"><span class="goog-text-highlight">over 80K Twitter followers</span></a><span class="goog-text-highlight"> and established himself as the mainstream media's go-to "expert" for stories involving gambling on sports.</span></span></i><br />
<i><br /></i><i>An American success story if there every was one. That's only one side of it, though. In <a href="http://roughingthepunter.com/forumdisplay.php?f=2">some</a> <a href="http://www.wagerminds.com/blog/?s=rj%20bell">corners</a> of the <a href="http://www.sportsgrid.com/gamblin/why-are-grantland-and-new-york-times-glorifying-sleazy-rj-bell/">internet</a> (including <a href="http://www.vegaswatch.org/search/label/%23WOAT">this blog</a>), there is a feeling that Bell has not found his success in a legitimate way. This is the tenth post in a <a href="http://www.vegaswatch.org/search/label/Long%20Con%20of%20RJ">series</a> detailing the reasoning behind that particular feeling. If you'd like to start at the beginning, it's <a href="http://www.vegaswatch.org/2014/07/the-long-con-of-rjinvegas-defining-value.html">here</a>.</i><br />
<i><br /></i>
In need of some RTs during the slow summer months, Bell tweeted a few times about the odds of LeBron James' free agent destination. The most amusing example;<br />
<blockquote class="twitter-tweet" lang="en">
LeBron odds: Mia -600 (61%); Cle 5/1 (12%); LAC 7/1 (9%); Hou 10/1 (6%) Chi 15/1 (4%); LAL, NYK 25/1 (3%); Dal 30/1 (2%) - via sportsbook.ag<br />
— RJ Bell (@RJinVegas) <a href="https://twitter.com/RJinVegas/statuses/481534463231676416">June 24, 2014</a></blockquote>
<script async="" charset="utf-8" src="//platform.twitter.com/widgets.js"></script>This one might give "<a href="http://www.vegaswatch.org/2014/08/the-long-con-of-rjinvegas-math.html">12% All-Star game Swing!</a>" a run for its money.<br />
<br />
<a name='more'></a>The first issue with this is the same as with all the "<a href="http://www.vegaswatch.org/2014/08/the-long-con-of-rjinvegas-vegas-says.html">Vegas says</a>" stuff: you have to consider the source. With these random prop markets, whether they're posted by Sportsbook, Bovada, or whomever, we're talking about an often fresh market with minuscule ($50-$100) limits that some sportsbook employee made up and emailed out to a bunch of media folks for PR purposes.<br />
<br />
Sure, they're real odds that you can bet a few bucks on (if you somehow haven't been banned from the very square books which post them). But, once again, we've lost the purpose of seeing what "Vegas says", as no sharp bettor has, or will be able to, bet any significant amount of money on these odds. And even in an alternate universe where they could, the vig on just those eight teams adds up to 41.1%, which is almost nine times higher than a standard -110/-110 sides market.<br />
<br />
Given all that, it's funny that Bell attempts to convert these odds into precise percentages. And it's funnier still that he fails so miserably while doing so. As you'll notice if you've ever converted American odds into a percentage before, -600 doesn't translate to anything near 61%. This was pointed out to Bell:<br />
<blockquote class="twitter-tweet" lang="en">
<a href="https://twitter.com/Ryan007136">@Ryan007136</a> percentages have juice removed so they add up to 100% (i.e., true percentages)<br />
— RJ Bell (@RJinVegas) <a href="https://twitter.com/RJinVegas/statuses/481805261007757314">June 25, 2014</a></blockquote>
Here's the "math" he did to get his "true percentages":<br />
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<a href="http://4.bp.blogspot.com/-g90g0Drg2yk/VAdelwXuScI/AAAAAAAAFdo/gGnQ0GhkAWw/s1600/isthisearth1.png" imageanchor="1" style="clear: left; float: left; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" src="http://4.bp.blogspot.com/-g90g0Drg2yk/VAdelwXuScI/AAAAAAAAFdo/gGnQ0GhkAWw/s1600/isthisearth1.png" height="280" width="400" /></a></div>
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This is meaningless. Bell would describe this as applying the juice evenly to get to the "true percentages", but he is the only person in the world who's manipulating these numbers like this. And for good reason.<br />
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It's not like guy putting these together at Sportsbook.ag sat around and came up with the "true percentages", decided he wanted the vig in this market to be 41.1%, and then multiplied all the "true percentages" by 1.411 in order to figure out what odds he would offer. But Bell is trying to reverse engineer these numbers by gough through the inverse of that absurd process in order to "translate" them into a more "meaningful" format than that, so media folks can quote him as reporting that Vegas says the Heat have a 61% chance of re-signing LeBron.<br />
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But they're not meaningful at all. All you could say from this market is that it implies the Heat have less than an 85.7% chance of signing LeBron. If all 32 teams were listed, you could also figure out a minimum percentage, based on the "not Miami" position you could synthetically create by betting every team other than the Heat. With the obscene vig, that number would probably be somewhere around 40-45%. But there are only eight teams listed, so all we can really infer is that Vegas says the Heat are between 0% and 86% to re-sign LeBron. If the $100 prop market which just got posted at a book that boots anyone sharp can be trusted.<br />
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But it obviously makes for a better quote if you make some shit up to get to an (entirely arbitrary) precise number. Until anyone applies any semblance of critical thought to what you posted:<br />
<blockquote class="twitter-tweet" lang="en">
-600 is 61%? Is this Earth? You're a fucking idiot RJ. RT <a href="https://twitter.com/RJinVegas">@RJinVegas</a>: LeBron odds: Mia -600 (61%); Cle 5/1 (12%); LAC 7/1 (9%)<br />
— Mike Margolis (@margosports) <a href="https://twitter.com/margosports/status/481535640501096448">June 24, 2014</a></blockquote>
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One hundred and seventy-six reteweets, tho. And some of them probably weren't even ironic!<br />
<br />
<b>Previous <i>Long Con</i> post: <a href="http://www.vegaswatch.org/2014/08/the-long-con-of-rjinvegas-vegas-says.html">"Vegas" Says</a></b><br />
<script async="" charset="utf-8" src="//platform.twitter.com/widgets.js"></script>
<script async="" charset="utf-8" src="//platform.twitter.com/widgets.js"></script>Vegas Watchhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/02353166004125421683noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7965585998403674176.post-31885651119746117062014-08-26T13:36:00.002-04:002014-09-20T08:45:08.585-04:00The Long Con of @RJinVegas: "Vegas" Says<br />
<i><span class=""><span class="goog-text-highlight">RJ Bell is the founder and CEO of <a href="http://pregame.com/">Pregame.com</a>, a sports betting website that includes forums, odds, contests, and picks (both of the free and for purchase varieties). It is one of the most successful sites of its kind, in no small part due to the popularity of Bell, who has accumulated </span><a href="https://twitter.com/rjinvegas"><span class="goog-text-highlight">over 80K Twitter followers</span></a><span class="goog-text-highlight"> and established himself as the mainstream media's go-to "expert" for stories involving gambling on sports.</span></span></i><br />
<i><br /></i><i>An American success story if there every was one. That's only one side of it, though. In <a href="http://roughingthepunter.com/forumdisplay.php?f=2">some</a> <a href="http://www.wagerminds.com/blog/?s=rj%20bell">corners</a> of the <a href="http://www.sportsgrid.com/gamblin/why-are-grantland-and-new-york-times-glorifying-sleazy-rj-bell/">internet</a> (including <a href="http://www.vegaswatch.org/search/label/%23WOAT">this blog</a>), there is a feeling that Bell has not found his success in a legitimate way. This is the ninth post in a <a href="http://www.vegaswatch.org/search/label/Long%20Con%20of%20RJ">series</a> detailing the reasoning behind that particular feeling. If you'd like to start at the beginning, it's <a href="http://www.vegaswatch.org/2014/07/the-long-con-of-rjinvegas-defining-value.html">here</a>.</i><br />
<i><br /></i>In the world of sports, people tend to ascribe a lot of importance to what "Vegas" says. And in a lot of cases, there's good reason for that. Particularly when you're dealing with mature markets in major sports with high limits, the current Vegas line is not something to scoff it, as it gives you a pretty good indication of how the two teams stack up.<br />
<br />
Of course, simply attributing a piece of information to "Vegas" doesn't make it worthwhile:<br />
<a name='more'></a><blockquote class="twitter-tweet" lang="en">
<br />
Vegas considers Sam Bradford to be worth 1 point per game AT MOST; even less after a few games: <a href="http://t.co/bW42fcr6Vc">http://t.co/bW42fcr6Vc</a> <a href="https://twitter.com/hashtag/Rams?src=hash">#Rams</a><br />
— RJ Bell (@RJinVegas) <a href="https://twitter.com/RJinVegas/statuses/503657902545321984">August 24, 2014</a></blockquote>
<script async="" charset="utf-8" src="//platform.twitter.com/widgets.js"></script>
When I read this, I assumed Bell was reporting on line movement, or had at least spoken to one of his buddies at the LVH or something. I should really know better:<br />
<br />
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="http://1.bp.blogspot.com/-X7gdbM0F0jQ/U_vCQw_1D8I/AAAAAAAAFdE/mXTcetg1kOg/s1600/malinsky.png" imageanchor="1" style="clear: left; float: left; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" src="http://1.bp.blogspot.com/-X7gdbM0F0jQ/U_vCQw_1D8I/AAAAAAAAFdE/mXTcetg1kOg/s1600/malinsky.png" height="208" width="640" /></a></div>
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Dave Malinsky was hired by Pregame <a href="http://pregame.com/pregame-forums/f/14/t/1009162.aspx">a couple weeks ago</a>. I guess "Vegas" sounds better than "A guy who's lived in Vegas since 1988 yet in 2014 is working for my scam tout site".<br />
<br />
Beyond the ridiculous presentation of the information, the actual content was terrible as well. At the time Bell posted that "analysis", one of the largest actual Vegas books, Cantor, was dealing Rams -4 (the market had been at -6 before the Bradford news). And then Monday afternoon, LVH <a href="https://twitter.com/golfodds/status/504001204511203328">announced</a> that they'd moved their line from -6 pre-injury to -3.5. Quite a bit different from "1 point per game AT MOST". No comment from Bell on that though; he'd already gotten his shock value RTs and page views, and wouldn't want to make his source(/employee) look silly.<br />
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At least that hot Vegas take won't end up being as far off as this one from last December:<br />
<blockquote class="twitter-tweet" lang="en">
<a href="https://twitter.com/hashtag/Seahawks?src=hash">#Seahawks</a> would be 3.5 point favorites in Super Bowl vs. <a href="https://twitter.com/hashtag/Broncos?src=hash">#Broncos</a> (via Bob Scucci on <a href="https://twitter.com/chadmillman">@chadmillman</a> podcast)<br />
— RJ Bell (@RJinVegas) <a href="https://twitter.com/RJinVegas/statuses/413792577356193792">December 19, 2013</a></blockquote>
The subtle con here is in the phrasing. First make a confident statement about the prospective Seahawks-Broncos line, then parenthetically mention that you heard it on Chad Flipping Millman's podcast.<br />
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The more absurd aspect is that even at the time, SEA -3.5 made absolutely no sense:<br />
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<a href="http://3.bp.blogspot.com/-jRWM1w1I0jM/U_y5rGNWjGI/AAAAAAAAFdU/rCvHpT1Ld6w/s1600/seahawks35.png" imageanchor="1" style="clear: left; float: left; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" src="http://3.bp.blogspot.com/-jRWM1w1I0jM/U_y5rGNWjGI/AAAAAAAAFdU/rCvHpT1Ld6w/s1600/seahawks35.png" height="640" width="502" /></a></div>
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Thus, the LVH Super Bowl line implied that the SEA-DEN line would, if anything, be shorter than SEA -2.5. And certainly not SEA -3.5, which is wildly different from even just -2.5 due to the substantial value of 3.<br />
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No attempt is being made here to inform anyone about anything; Bell is ignoring directly relevant information in favor of providing the most eye-popping tidbit he can find, in order to garner as much attention as possible. Sound <a href="http://www.vegaswatch.org/2014/08/the-long-con-of-rjinvegas-terndz.html">familiar</a>?<br />
<br />
Because he's the #WOAT, Bell also makes a mess of things when he's just reporting info from a Vegas sportsbook. As we've already seen, when he's telling us about "sharp action", it may actually be a <a href="http://www.vegaswatch.org/2013/12/the-problem-with-rj.html">collection of $5 and $10 bets</a>. A more recent, similarly misleading example came at this year's MLB trade deadline, when he tweeted the following shortly after the A's traded for Jon Lester:<br />
<blockquote class="twitter-tweet" lang="en">
How does Vegas grade the trade? <a href="https://twitter.com/hashtag/Athletics?src=hash">#Athletics</a> +450 to win World Series before the trade. The same +450 after (via <a href="https://twitter.com/LVSuperBook">@LVSuperBook</a>)<br />
— RJ Bell (@RJinVegas) <a href="https://twitter.com/RJinVegas/statuses/494914573452214272">July 31, 2014</a></blockquote>
<script async="" charset="utf-8" src="//platform.twitter.com/widgets.js"></script>
Oakland's blockbuster trade didn't help their World Series chances at all? I mean that doesn't really make any sense, but it sure is a hot take!<br />
<br />
But then, not even four hours later:<br />
<blockquote class="twitter-tweet" lang="en">
World Series odds: Detroit 7/2 (was 5/1); A's 7/2 (was 9/2); Dodgers 4/1 (was 9/2); Rays 60/1 (was 30/1) - via <a href="https://twitter.com/LVSuperBook">@LVSuperBook</a><br />
— RJ Bell (@RJinVegas) <a href="https://twitter.com/RJinVegas/statuses/494973905908801536">July 31, 2014</a></blockquote>
<script async="" charset="utf-8" src="//platform.twitter.com/widgets.js"></script>
I thought Vegas graded the trade as having no effect? Now, even after the Tigers acquired Price, the Athletics' WS chances have improved by over 20%? We're kind of all over the map here. It's almost like you're using "Vegas" as a meaningless buzzword to attribute an undeserving level of importance to the information you're tweeting!<br />
<br />
Bell would find a way to screw things up even if he had a great source, but the oddsmakers he's relying on for this "Vegas says" nonsense are a problem as well. To explain why this is true, we turn to an unlikely source:<br />
<!--more--><br />
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<a href="http://4.bp.blogspot.com/-wGhO_rD1LDw/U_enV6G4dFI/AAAAAAAAFc0/aL_Xf64b67Y/s1600/fezzik.png" imageanchor="1" style="clear: left; float: left; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" src="http://4.bp.blogspot.com/-wGhO_rD1LDw/U_enV6G4dFI/AAAAAAAAFc0/aL_Xf64b67Y/s1600/fezzik.png" height="442" width="640" /></a></div>
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Fezzik is wrong about a lot of things, but not this.<br />
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Bell quotes oddsmakers, and tweets about how "Vegas grades the trade" because he knows that'll get people's attention. But, similar to "<a href="http://www.vegaswatch.org/2014/08/the-long-con-of-rjinvegas-world-openers.html">World Openers</a>", that approach is just preying on the public's lack of understanding of how betting markets actually work. You can quote a sportsbook employee about a prospective line, or the <a href="http://www.vegaswatch.org/2014/08/the-long-con-of-rjinvegas-math.html">value of HFA</a>, or whatever. But as we've seen, that information is anything but reliable, and often wildly inaccurate.<br />
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As Fezzik says above, the fact is that the overwhelming majority of sportsbook employees don't originate anything. Rather, they just copy the lines posted elsewhere, and then move them based on the action they take and/or line movement elsewhere. And even for the folks who post unique lines, there's a reason that they open the markets with relatively low limits; the oddsmakers are well aware that there are guys out there that are better at handicapping than they are, and the lines will get bet into shape as the limits increase.<br />
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And that is where "Vegas says" is actually interesting, when you see how a line moves from open to close, or even just where it ends up after the market has matured. Which is quite different than asking sportsbook employees to come up with <a href="https://twitter.com/RJinVegas/status/388377442270052352">fantasy lines</a> for made up QB swaps, or <a href="https://twitter.com/RJinVegas/statuses/430741786038771714">non-existent rematches</a>. The entire point of attributing info to "Vegas" -- that there's a lot of money behind these opinions -- is entirely absent when you're quoting $250 openers, fresh futures markets, or prospective lines. But you can still make the info sound important and get some retweets, which is all Bell cares about, so that's what he does.<br />
<br />
<b>Previous <i>Long Con</i> post: <u><a href="http://www.vegaswatch.org/2014/08/the-long-con-of-rjinvegas-terndz.html">#TERNDZ</a></u></b><br />
<b>Next <i>Long Con </i>post: <a href="http://www.vegaswatch.org/2014/09/the-long-con-of-rjinvegas-is-this-earth.html">Is This Earth?</a></b><br />
<script async="" charset="utf-8" src="//platform.twitter.com/widgets.js"></script>Vegas Watchhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/02353166004125421683noreply@blogger.com6tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7965585998403674176.post-67345573521147412852014-08-19T15:26:00.002-04:002014-10-22T11:10:44.666-04:00The Long Con of @RJinVegas: #TERNDZ<br />
<i><span class=""><span class="goog-text-highlight">RJ Bell is the founder and CEO of <a href="http://pregame.com/">Pregame.com</a>, a sports betting website that includes forums, odds, contests, and picks (both of the free and for purchase varieties). It is one of the most successful sites of its kind, in no small part due to the popularity of Bell, who has accumulated </span><a href="https://twitter.com/rjinvegas"><span class="goog-text-highlight">over 80K Twitter followers</span></a><span class="goog-text-highlight"> and established himself as the mainstream media's go-to "expert" for stories involving gambling on sports.</span></span></i><br />
<i><br /></i><i>An American success story if there every was one. That's only one side of it, though. In <a href="http://roughingthepunter.com/forumdisplay.php?f=2">some</a> <a href="http://www.wagerminds.com/blog/?s=rj%20bell">corners</a> of the <a href="http://www.sportsgrid.com/gamblin/why-are-grantland-and-new-york-times-glorifying-sleazy-rj-bell/">internet</a> (including <a href="http://www.vegaswatch.org/search/label/%23WOAT">this blog</a>), there is a feeling that Bell has not found his success in a legitimate way. This is the eighth (!) post in a <a href="http://www.vegaswatch.org/search/label/Long%20Con%20of%20RJ">series</a> detailing the reasoning behind that particular feeling. If you'd like to start at the beginning, it's <a href="http://www.vegaswatch.org/2014/07/the-long-con-of-rjinvegas-defining-value.html">here</a>.</i><br />
<i><br /></i>
One of RJ Bell's favorite things to do during the NFL season is to tweet out "noteworthy" trends relating to upcoming games. As per usual, he does this to get retweets and promote his #brand, while displaying absolutely no interest in providing helpful information.<br />
<a name='more'></a><br />
Bell wants you to believe that his selfless goal is to provide the best and most relevant trends possible:<br />
<blockquote class="twitter-tweet" lang="en">
<a href="https://twitter.com/j_rake">@j_rake</a> It's the constant battle with trends. Bigger sample size = good. Bigger sample size often equals change. That balancing act is key.<br />
— RJ Bell (@RJinVegas) <a href="https://twitter.com/RJinVegas/statuses/26000012052">September 30, 2010</a></blockquote>
<blockquote class="twitter-tweet" lang="en">
<a href="https://twitter.com/RobertMusallam">@RobertMusallam</a> Always want the most applicable games possible in the sample.<br />
— RJ Bell (@RJinVegas) <a href="https://twitter.com/RJinVegas/statuses/384414663020003328">September 29, 2013</a></blockquote>
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At the risk of startling anyone, this is an easily disproven lie:<br />
<blockquote class="twitter-tweet" lang="en">
Last 18 times the <a href="https://twitter.com/hashtag/Cowboys?src=hash">#Cowboys</a> won a game: 4-14 ATS the next game.<br />
— RJ Bell (@RJinVegas) <a href="https://twitter.com/RJinVegas/statuses/384411008644554752">September 29, 2013</a></blockquote>
<br />
Bell would like you to believe that he went back 18 games because he feels that's the most relevant sample. Because you are a sentient being, you do not believe this. You are completely justified in your skepticism:<br />
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<a href="http://1.bp.blogspot.com/-M5pPaAAvHSU/U-T-mzWmimI/AAAAAAAAFcM/Cin-YB1JcHM/s1600/trends2.png" imageanchor="1" style="clear: left; float: left; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" src="http://1.bp.blogspot.com/-M5pPaAAvHSU/U-T-mzWmimI/AAAAAAAAFcM/Cin-YB1JcHM/s1600/trends2.png" height="326" width="400" /></a></div>
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Week 15 of the 2010 season is an applicable data point, while Week 13 of the 2010 season is not, because of course.<br />
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You could spend days picking apart the ridiculously arbitrary endpoints used for these trends, but I'll just do one more:<br />
<blockquote class="twitter-tweet" lang="en">
Home team last 13 <a href="https://twitter.com/hashtag/Patriots?src=hash">#Patriots</a> games: 11-2 ATS<br />
— RJ Bell (@RJinVegas) <a href="https://twitter.com/RJinVegas/statuses/423949464647135232">January 16, 2014</a></blockquote>
<script async="" charset="utf-8" src="//platform.twitter.com/widgets.js"></script>
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Although the "outdated" sample isn't as extreme, this one may be even funnier. Bell could easily use the full season of data and the trend would still be an "impressive" 13-4 ATS, which he could argue was the "most applicable" sample. But he just doesn't care, and the last 13 games make up the most eye-popping record, so the last 13 games are what he uses.<br />
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Bell is also a big fan of taking advantage of everybody's confirmation bias; he often posts trends that kind of, sort of make sense. While still data-mined garbage, these are great from his perspective because the sample doesn't have to be as large or extreme:<br />
<blockquote class="twitter-tweet" lang="en">
Pro bettors are starting to suspect that Bye weeks are over-vauled under new practice rules. 36% ATS w/small sample this yr.<br />
— RJ Bell (@RJinVegas) <a href="https://twitter.com/RJinVegas/statuses/130661739623743491">October 30, 2011</a><br />
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</blockquote>
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And then, when the ATS % is way less impressive three games later (because the initial sample size was 15 games), he can just switch up his story:<br />
<blockquote class="twitter-tweet" lang="en">
Lots of talk about new practice rules and NFL byes. 8-9-1 ATS (ho-hum) but bye teams have gone UNDER the total 14 of 18!<br />
— RJ Bell (@RJinVegas) <a href="https://twitter.com/RJinVegas/statuses/131512787456376832">November 1, 2011</a><br />
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</blockquote>
Pathetic.<br />
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Similar to the <a href="http://www.vegaswatch.org/2014/07/the-long-con-of-rjinvegas-defining-value.html">long-term success of his touts</a>, Bell doesn't actually seem to believe what he's saying. As usual, the information provide is only useful if parsed in just the right way:<br />
<blockquote class="twitter-tweet" lang="en">
Sharing a noteworthy game trend does NOT mean I'm betting that team. In fact, there will often be noteworthy trends on both teams in a game.<br />
— RJ Bell (@RJinVegas) <a href="https://twitter.com/RJinVegas/statuses/389436267840020480">October 13, 2013</a></blockquote>
<script async="" charset="utf-8" src="//platform.twitter.com/widgets.js"></script><br />
<blockquote class="twitter-tweet" lang="en">
<a href="https://twitter.com/locher27">@locher27</a> Every game has noteworthy trends on both sides - their NET effect, plus many other factors dictate which side the sharps are on.<br />
— RJ Bell (@RJinVegas) <a href="https://twitter.com/RJinVegas/statuses/394570147433701376">October 27, 2013</a></blockquote>
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If you're questioning whether every game has a "noteworthy" trend on either side, it's probably because Bell's definition of "noteworthy" differs from yours (and the rest of the world's):<br />
<blockquote class="twitter-tweet" lang="en">
<a href="https://twitter.com/hashtag/NFL?src=hash">#NFL</a> teams who win 2 straight games by a FG or less, but don't cover either game (<a href="https://twitter.com/hashtag/Eagles?src=hash">#Eagles</a>): 16-9-2 ATS (last 25 yrs)<br />
— RJ Bell (@RJinVegas) <a href="https://twitter.com/RJinVegas/statuses/249169436693639168">September 21, 2012</a></blockquote>
<blockquote class="twitter-tweet" lang="en">
<a href="https://twitter.com/hashtag/Eagles?src=hash">#Eagles</a> as a favorite, following a game as a favorite: 4-18 ATS streak<br />
— RJ Bell (@RJinVegas) <a href="https://twitter.com/RJinVegas/statuses/417462879156056064">December 30, 2013</a></blockquote>
<blockquote class="twitter-tweet" lang="en">
NFL teams favored the week AFTER playing Seattle: 5-18 ATS <a href="https://twitter.com/hashtag/49ers?src=hash">#49ers</a><br />
— RJ Bell (@RJinVegas) <a href="https://twitter.com/RJinVegas/statuses/412276650852622339">December 15, 2013</a></blockquote>
<blockquote class="twitter-tweet" lang="en">
<a href="https://twitter.com/hashtag/Patriots?src=hash">#Patriots</a> in December under Belichick, all spreads EXCEPT when favored by more than a touchdown: 24-7 ATS<br />
— RJ Bell (@RJinVegas) <a href="https://twitter.com/RJinVegas/statuses/280476244246659072">December 17, 2012</a></blockquote>
This information isn't useful in any way, no matter how well you parse it. Bell only tweets out trends because it's the National Football League™, and he knows people will eat up any NFL information relating to gambling. Which would be annoying enough if he didn't act like he was performing a public service by sharing this info (at no cost to you!), rather than just, as always, serving himself.<br />
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<b>Previous <i>Long Con</i> post: <a href="http://www.vegaswatch.org/2014/08/the-long-con-of-rjinvegas-math.html">#MATH</a></b><br />
<b>Next <i>Long Con</i> post: <a href="http://www.vegaswatch.org/2014/08/the-long-con-of-rjinvegas-vegas-says.html">"Vegas" Says</a></b><br />
<script async="" charset="utf-8" src="//platform.twitter.com/widgets.js"></script>Vegas Watchhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/02353166004125421683noreply@blogger.com1tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7965585998403674176.post-91030452863089614282014-08-11T08:33:00.000-04:002014-09-24T08:46:11.765-04:00The Long Con of @RJinVegas: #MATH<br />
<i><span class=""><span class="goog-text-highlight">RJ Bell is the founder and CEO of <a href="http://pregame.com/">Pregame.com</a>, a sports betting website that includes forums, odds, contests, and picks (both of the free and for purchase varieties). It is one of the most successful sites of its kind, in no small part due to the popularity of Bell, who has accumulated </span><a href="https://twitter.com/rjinvegas"><span class="goog-text-highlight">over 80K Twitter followers</span></a><span class="goog-text-highlight"> and established himself as the mainstream media's go-to "expert" for stories involving gambling on sports.</span></span></i><br />
<i><br /></i><i>An American success story if there every was one. That's only one side of it, though. In <a href="http://roughingthepunter.com/forumdisplay.php?f=2">some</a> <a href="http://www.wagerminds.com/blog/?s=rj%20bell">corners</a> of the <a href="http://www.sportsgrid.com/gamblin/why-are-grantland-and-new-york-times-glorifying-sleazy-rj-bell/">internet</a> (including <a href="http://www.vegaswatch.org/search/label/%23WOAT">this blog</a>), there is a feeling that Bell has not found his success in a legitimate way. This is the seventh post in a <a href="http://www.vegaswatch.org/search/label/Long%20Con%20of%20RJ">series</a> detailing the reasoning behind that particular feeling.</i><i> If you'd like to start at the beginning, it's <a href="http://www.vegaswatch.org/2014/07/the-long-con-of-rjinvegas-defining-value.html">here</a>.</i><br />
<i><br /></i>
Beyond lacking any understanding of <a href="http://www.vegaswatch.org/2014/08/the-long-con-of-rjinvegas-world-openers.html">how betting markets actually work</a>, RJ Bell is also not very good at simple math. I can prove this in under 140 characters:<br />
<blockquote class="twitter-tweet" lang="en">
If <a href="https://twitter.com/hashtag/Cardinals?src=hash">#Cardinals</a> had home field: 57% chance to win Series (via <a href="https://twitter.com/JayKornegay">@JayKornegay</a>). Actual odds: 45%. 12% All-Star game swing!<br />
— RJ Bell (@RJinVegas) <a href="https://twitter.com/RJinVegas/statuses/393069928615796736">October 23, 2013</a> </blockquote>
<script async="" charset="utf-8" src="//platform.twitter.com/widgets.js"></script>
This tweet is concerning for a long list of reasons. For our purposes, I've narrowed it down to four.
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<a name='more'></a><br />
<b>Concern #1: Bell felt the need to ask one of his Vegas "experts" how much home-field advantage is worth in the World Series.</b><br />
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This was unnecessary to begin with, since the value of HFA in a seven game series easy to calculate. MLB home teams win about 54% of the time, so all else equal, the home team will win the series 51.25% of the time. Going from having HFA to not having it is about a <b>2.5% swing</b>. This can be calculated by doing some conditional probability in Excel.<br />
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<b>Concern #2: Supposedly, his Vegas "expert" told him HFA is the difference between being 57% to win the World Series, and being 45% (a 12% ASG swing!).</b><br />
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It's not entirely clear what happened here. Kornegay is on the record as <a href="http://www.vegaswatch.org/2014/03/ssac14-betting-panel-jay-kornegay.html">not being math's biggest fan</a>, but this is such an insane answer that that doesn't full explain it. Maybe he said 47% and Bell misheard him? Maybe he just pulled a number out of his ass because he doesn't care? The world may never know. Regardless, after this tweet it's hard to put a whole lot of stock in anything Bell reports as Kornegay's "expert" opinion.<br />
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<b>Concern #3: Bell excitedly published this.</b><br />
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It seems like this couldn't have been a typo, since he confirmed the enormous difference with the instant classic, "12% All-Star game swing!" Anybody with any clue would've looked at this and wondered if it could possibly be correct. Bell looked at it, saw the eye-popping 12% number, and got excited about how many retweets it might get.<br />
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<b>Concern #4: This all happened over nine months ago. Bell was called out repeatedly for how wrong it is, but he doesn't seem to care.</b><br />
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Accepting that he posted it in the first place, I'm not sure exactly when Bell should have fixed or deleted his insane tweet. Maybe after this polite correction:<br />
<blockquote class="twitter-tweet" lang="en">
<a href="https://twitter.com/RJinVegas">@RJinVegas</a> <a href="https://twitter.com/JayKornegay">@JayKornegay</a> can't possibly be right. That's 1.5x the swing of HFA for one game! For the series it'd be more like a 2.5% swing.<br />
— Spraguer (@_Spraguer) <a href="https://twitter.com/_Spraguer/statuses/393077695073878016">October 23, 2013</a></blockquote>
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This reply would have worried me, personally:<br />
<blockquote class="twitter-tweet" lang="en">
.<a href="https://twitter.com/RJinVegas">@RJinVegas</a> I think <a href="https://twitter.com/JayKornegay">@JayKornegay</a> is trolling you. You'll tweet anything, won't you?<br />
— Josh Engleman (@JoshEngleman) <a href="https://twitter.com/JoshEngleman/statuses/393078287125069824">October 23, 2013</a></blockquote>
<blockquote class="twitter-tweet" lang="en">
</blockquote>
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He probably should have figured it out after seeing this back-of-the-envelope math:<br />
<blockquote class="twitter-tweet" lang="en">
<a href="https://twitter.com/RJinVegas">@RJinVegas</a> <a href="https://twitter.com/JayKornegay">@JayKornegay</a> This is unbelievably ignorant. HFA only matters if there's a game 7 (~30%) and then only an 8% swing. 0.3*0.8 = 2.4%<br />
— Jan Suchanek (@PerpetualCzech) <a href="https://twitter.com/PerpetualCzech/statuses/393444981894967297">October 24, 2013</a></blockquote>
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He was really given an opportunity here:<br />
<blockquote class="twitter-tweet" lang="en">
<a href="https://twitter.com/RJinVegas">@RJinVegas</a> Still waiting on the correction to your absolutely horrible tweet about MLB series price HFA.<br />
— The Groovin Mahoovin (@groovinmahoovin) <a href="https://twitter.com/groovinmahoovin/statuses/393695257491030017">October 25, 2013</a></blockquote>
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And again a few weeks ago:
<script async="" charset="utf-8" src="//platform.twitter.com/widgets.js"></script><br />
<blockquote class="twitter-tweet" lang="en">
<a href="https://twitter.com/RJinVegas">@RJinVegas</a> <a href="https://twitter.com/JayKornegay">@JayKornegay</a> any update on if this is still accurate?<br />
— jbxx (@jbxx21) <a href="https://twitter.com/jbxx21/statuses/489213141281042432">July 16, 2014</a></blockquote>
Still nothing.<br />
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The combination of incompetence and complete disregard for the truth is the most frustrating part of all this. It's absurd enough to tweet out something so phenomenally wrong in the first place, but to leave it up with no correction really takes it to another level.<br />
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Although I guess I should be careful what I wish for, given the alternate option:<br />
<blockquote class="twitter-tweet" lang="en">
$100 parlay on <a href="https://twitter.com/hashtag/Jags?src=hash">#Jags</a> AND <a href="https://twitter.com/hashtag/Raiders?src=hash">#Raiders</a> to BOTH win pays $31,200!<br />
— RJ Bell (@RJinVegas) <a href="https://twitter.com/RJinVegas/statuses/381122110833561600">September 20, 2013</a></blockquote>
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Pretty worthless tweet to begin with, before you get to the part where it's <a href="https://twitter.com/vegaswatch/status/381130517107589120">completely wrong</a>:<br />
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<a href="http://2.bp.blogspot.com/-yAFL2XcymdI/U-OtiBLdSYI/AAAAAAAAFb8/9W7AuCf78RI/s1600/parlay1.png" imageanchor="1" style="clear: left; float: left; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" src="http://2.bp.blogspot.com/-yAFL2XcymdI/U-OtiBLdSYI/AAAAAAAAFb8/9W7AuCf78RI/s1600/parlay1.png" height="200" width="640" /></a></div>
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This time, Bell eventually realized his mistake. Didn't correct his error, but did get 75 more RTs on game day:<br />
<blockquote class="twitter-tweet" lang="en">
$100 parlay on <a href="https://twitter.com/hashtag/Jags?src=hash">#Jags</a> AND <a href="https://twitter.com/hashtag/Raiders?src=hash">#Raiders</a> to BOTH win pays $23,100!<br />
— RJ Bell (@RJinVegas) <a href="https://twitter.com/RJinVegas/statuses/381874186857480192">September 22, 2013</a></blockquote>
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Bell also thought that going from 64 to 68 teams increased the number of NCAA tourney bracket possibilities by a <a href="http://pregame.com/pregame-forums/f/6/t/876138.aspx?pi10417=1">factor of four</a>, which is not how math works. He acknowledged his error in that thread, but <a href="http://pregame.com/sports/stories/b/news/archive/2011/03/13/true-odds-of-a-perfect-ncaa-tournament-bracket-_2d00_-2011-153347.aspx">not in the actual article</a> (see bobderwin's comment), and not before <a href="http://blogs.mcall.com/groller/2014/03/ncaa-pool-bracket-picking-tips-from-las-vegas-.html">multiple</a> <a href="http://www.foxnews.com/sports/2013/03/18/bracketracket-youll-never-have-perfect-bracket-so-root-for-saint-louis-either/">other</a> <a href="http://timesfreepress.com/news/2013/mar/18/5-10-selection-monday-little-college-football-beca/?print">outlets</a> picked it up.<br />
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Despite what he'll tell you, Bell is not knowledgeable when it comes to sports betting markets. He is not good at math. He has no interest in taking accountability for his mistakes unless he's left with no alternate option. And on top of all that, his incentives are all screwed up, because at the end of the day he just wants to get you to his tout site and sell you some shitty picks.<br />
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Given all that, why would you ever want to rely on him as a source?<br />
<br />
<b>Previous <i>Long Con</i> post: <a href="http://www.vegaswatch.org/2014/08/the-long-con-of-rjinvegas-world-openers.html">World Openers</a></b><br />
<b>Next <i>Long Con</i> post: <a href="http://www.vegaswatch.org/2014/08/the-long-con-of-rjinvegas-terndz.html">#TERNDZ</a></b>Vegas Watchhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/02353166004125421683noreply@blogger.com4tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7965585998403674176.post-46920006335531072532014-08-06T18:39:00.000-04:002014-08-19T15:30:49.269-04:00The Long Con of @RJinVegas: World Openers<br />
<i><span class=""><span class="goog-text-highlight">RJ Bell is the founder and CEO of <a href="http://pregame.com/">Pregame.com</a>, a sports betting website that includes forums, odds, contests, and picks (both of the free and for purchase varieties). It is one of the most successful sites of its kind, in no small part due to the popularity of Bell, who has accumulated </span><a href="https://twitter.com/rjinvegas"><span class="goog-text-highlight">over 80K Twitter followers</span></a><span class="goog-text-highlight"> and established himself as the mainstream media's go-to "expert" for stories involving gambling on sports.</span></span></i><br />
<i><br /></i><i>An American success story if there every was one. That's only one side of it, though. In <a href="http://roughingthepunter.com/forumdisplay.php?f=2">some</a> <a href="http://www.wagerminds.com/blog/?s=rj%20bell">corners</a> of the <a href="http://www.sportsgrid.com/gamblin/why-are-grantland-and-new-york-times-glorifying-sleazy-rj-bell/">internet</a> (including <a href="http://www.vegaswatch.org/search/label/%23WOAT">this blog</a>), there is a feeling that Bell has not found his success in a legitimate way. This is the sixth post in a <a href="http://www.vegaswatch.org/search/label/Long%20Con%20of%20RJ">series</a> detailing the reasoning behind that particular feeling.</i><i> If you'd like to start at the beginning, it's <a href="http://www.vegaswatch.org/2014/07/the-long-con-of-rjinvegas-defining-value.html">here</a>.</i><br />
<br />
RJ Bell has turned himself into much more than the founder and CEO of a tout site that sells shitty picks; there's a reason this series isn't called "The Long Con of <a href="https://twitter.com/PregameNow">@PregameNow</a>". He's a <a href="http://grantland.com/contributors/rj-bell/">Grantland columnist</a>, an <a href="http://i.imgur.com/C23tcZ1.png">ESPN radio host</a>, an <a href="https://twitter.com/vegaswatch/status/446698685691215872">occasional SportsCenter guest</a>, and a <a href="https://twitter.com/rjinvegas">very popular tweeter</a>.<br />
<br />
Which would be fine, I'm all for more coverage of sports betting markets in the mainstream media. Except Bell either doesn't know, or simply doesn't care about, what actually goes on in these markets. All of these media appearances have nothing to do with sharing accurate or interesting information. Rather, their only purpose is to build Bell's brand so he can eventually get you to his tout site and sell you some shitty picks.<br />
<a name='more'></a><br />
There are numerous examples of this; we'll start with the opening lines that Bell is fond of tweeting about. He'll often do this soon after a big matchup has been set:<br />
<blockquote class="twitter-tweet" lang="en">
World Opener: <a href="https://twitter.com/hashtag/Spurs?src=hash">#Spurs</a> -135 over <a href="https://twitter.com/hashtag/Heat?src=hash">#Heat</a> +115 to win NBA Title - via BetOnline<br />
— RJ Bell (@RJinVegas) <a href="https://twitter.com/RJinVegas/statuses/472947784002588672">June 1, 2014</a></blockquote>
For once, Bell is being truthful; BetOnline (BOL) posted a line shortly after the Spurs defeated the Thunder in Game 6, before anyone else. The problem is that the lines BOL posts before anyone else are essentially meaningless, and divorced from the actual market.<br />
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Here's what happens. BOL posts a line as soon as possible, in no small part because they know they'll get some free PR when people who are desperate for attention tweet about it. This initial market will have a low limit (often $250), such that if a serious bettor had an opinion on the line, he would wait for other shops with higher limits to post their lines so he could get more than $250 down.<br />
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You still get some people betting into this line, which Bell will of course happily report on as well:<br />
<script async="" charset="utf-8" src="//platform.twitter.com/widgets.js"></script><br />
<blockquote class="twitter-tweet" lang="en">
First move toward Miami: <a href="https://twitter.com/hashtag/Spurs?src=hash">#Spurs</a> down from -135 to -130 over <a href="https://twitter.com/hashtag/Heat?src=hash">#Heat</a> (was +115, now +110) to win NBA Title - via BetOnline<br />
— RJ Bell (@RJinVegas) <a href="https://twitter.com/RJinVegas/statuses/472950827707953153">June 1, 2014</a></blockquote>
It's difficult to put into words just how non-noteworthy that move is.<br />
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<blockquote class="twitter-tweet" lang="en">
<a href="https://twitter.com/hashtag/Heat?src=hash">#Heat</a> now slight favorites (-115) over <a href="https://twitter.com/hashtag/Spurs?src=hash">#Spurs</a> (-105) to win NBA Title - via BetOnline<br />
— RJ Bell (@RJinVegas) <a href="https://twitter.com/RJinVegas/statuses/472963741664169984">June 1, 2014</a></blockquote>
Wow! Tons of sharp money must have come in on Miami!<br />
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But as soon as a more serious book (usually CRIS or Pinnacle) posts their line, BOL itself no longer cares about anything that happened in their "World Opener" market:<br />
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<a href="http://1.bp.blogspot.com/-T4kYat5AhiY/U-JFzHecaTI/AAAAAAAAFZY/EzSXbHmFgvs/s1600/worldopeners1.png" imageanchor="1" style="clear: left; float: left; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" src="http://1.bp.blogspot.com/-T4kYat5AhiY/U-JFzHecaTI/AAAAAAAAFZY/EzSXbHmFgvs/s1600/worldopeners1.png" height="256" width="400" /></a></div>
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Earlier, Bell was tweeting about the BOL line moving five cents like it was breaking news. Now they're moving 10 cents on air just to get their line somewhere near CRIS' opener. Maybe those bets driving the Heat <a href="http://i.imgur.com/IOIgdAf.png">up to -125</a> weren't so sharp after all?<br />
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While Bell's late night tweets about the Finals market were particularly amusing, this isn't even an extreme example; it happens all the time. Here's Game 1 of the Stanley Cup Finals:<br />
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<a href="http://2.bp.blogspot.com/-Rj-JUnbqLaw/U-JF0Z8sFCI/AAAAAAAAFZg/FCZlCoIO6_Y/s1600/worldopeners2.png" imageanchor="1" style="clear: left; float: left; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" src="http://2.bp.blogspot.com/-Rj-JUnbqLaw/U-JF0Z8sFCI/AAAAAAAAFZg/FCZlCoIO6_Y/s1600/worldopeners2.png" height="253" width="400" /></a></div>
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Moving 16 cents on air to get in line with the real market. Standard.<br />
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It also doesn't have to be a respected offshore book for BOL to suddenly not care about their BS market. This was very clear after the NCAA tournament field was released this year:<br />
<blockquote class="twitter-tweet" lang="en">
Openers: Ohio St -5 ov Dayton; Syracuse -13 ov W. Mich; U Conn -4 ov St. Joes; Villanova -14.5 ov W. Milw - via BetOnline<br />
— RJ Bell (@RJinVegas) <a href="https://twitter.com/RJinVegas/statuses/445362092942450688">March 17, 2014</a></blockquote>
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That sure escalated quickly.<br />
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The BOL "World Openers" market is nonsense. The line is initially posted by some BOL employee who has an established track record of not being very good at this. It's bet into by people who are content betting $250 at a time. And then other books post lines, completely ignoring BOL, and BOL moves their line toward the sharper shops' price, because that is the actual market.<br />
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But in Bell's world, none of that matters. He often makes it very clear that maximizing his exposure is the only thing he has any interest in. Why else would you possibly dedicate eight separate tweets to BCS lines over a three hour period?
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He conveniently doesn't mention the juice or the max for the 5Dimes lines, possibly because they were dealing 40 cent lines with a $500 limit. But more importantly, that sequence of tweets combined for 240 RTs. Success!<br />
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At least what he's trying to accomplish in that situation is obvious. I still don't understand what happened here:<br />
<blockquote class="twitter-tweet" lang="en">
USA +180 to win (35% chance). Ghana +180 to win (35% chance). DRAW +230 (30% chance) <a href="https://twitter.com/hashtag/WorldCup?src=hash">#WorldCup</a><br />
— RJ Bell (@RJinVegas) <a href="https://twitter.com/RJinVegas/statuses/478564196817584128">June 16, 2014</a></blockquote>
A sampling of lines from when Bell sent this confounding tweet out:<br />
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<a href="http://3.bp.blogspot.com/-IIz5BTbPiVU/U-KuTLUYLjI/AAAAAAAAFbM/xb9ITeoe0iw/s1600/worldopeners8.png" imageanchor="1" style="clear: left; float: left; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" src="http://3.bp.blogspot.com/-IIz5BTbPiVU/U-KuTLUYLjI/AAAAAAAAFbM/xb9ITeoe0iw/s1600/worldopeners8.png" height="172" width="320" /></a></div>
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This isn't a matter of a small discrepancy from one book to another. The market was very clearly implying one thing, and Bell reported something not even close to that.<br />
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Apparently Bovada -- a fantastically square US-facing book which would clearly shade their line to give homer USMNT bettors an inferior price -- was <a href="https://twitter.com/NormGambles/status/478614377856114688">dealing +160/+160/+250</a> around this time. It'd be bad enough if Bell referenced Bovada in his tweet, but he doesn't even do that, instead acting as though the odds he reports are somehow an accurate representation of the overall market.<br />
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This gets back to the same issue I've <a href="http://www.vegaswatch.org/2013/12/the-problem-with-rj.html">written about before</a>:<br />
<blockquote class="tr_bq">
Simply reporting facts just shouldn't be that hard. If you were making a legitimate effort, that is. But R.J. is such a fraud that he can't even reach that relatively low bar. When you're so <a href="http://damnitletsgetserious.blogspot.com/2013/08/rj-twerkin-for-gameday-feature.html">eager to please</a> and so <a href="https://twitter.com/RJinVegas/status/407543145883136000">obsessed with people retweeting you</a> (as <a href="http://i.imgur.com/Iqm7Qpx.png">often as possible</a>), when you have <a href="http://i.imgur.com/PjJZS14.png">no clue how these markets actually work</a>, and then on top of that you're so loose with the facts themselves...even if you WERE reporting something which was pertinent and interesting, why would anyone believe you?</blockquote>
The man simply cannot be trusted. With anything. I'm not sure how may times this is going to have to be demonstrated for people to stop acting like he's a legitimate source of information or "analysis", but I'm willing to find out.<br />
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<b>Previous <i>Long Con</i> post: <a href="http://www.vegaswatch.org/2014/08/the-long-con-of-rjinvegas-transparency.html">"Transparency"</a></b><br />
<b>Next <i>Long Con</i> post: <a href="http://www.vegaswatch.org/2014/08/the-long-con-of-rjinvegas-math.html">#MATH</a></b>Vegas Watchhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/02353166004125421683noreply@blogger.com4