This Is Also Completely Wrong

Same article:

Will Rob Gronkowski score a touchdown?
Yes: -160
No: +140

Will Rob Gronkowski score a touchdown in the first half?
Yes: +175
No: -200

These two bets, taken together, are a very weird mix. The given likelihood of Gronkowski scoring a touchdown in the first half is just 35.3 percent, but his odds of scoring a touchdown in the game are at 59.6 percent. Those two numbers imply that Gronkowski will score in the second half about 92.1 percent of the time, and that a bet on Gronkowski not scoring in the second half would have true odds of about +1166 or so. I hope somebody offers that.

I have no idea. 92.1%? I don't know, man.

Eighth(?) grade probability time!

The setup:

The math:

.647 * x = .404
x = .624
1-x = .376

The result:

So illogical!!!!

Doing the math wrong...whatever. But doing the math wrong, getting an answer that MAKES NO SENSE, assuming you are correct, and just going with it? And if those two lines were truly implying something insane for the 2H, wouldn't one side of the 1H or FG line have to be way off, too? So...maybe look into that?

How Not To Handicap A Prop Bet

I still can't believe Barnwell actually wrote this:

What will the jersey number be of the first player to score a touchdown?
Over 80.5: EVEN
Under 80.5: -120

Few things have made me question my life decisions more than putting together a spreadsheet to answer this question. But I did it, taking every player who has scored for these two teams this year, removing guys who aren't going to play on Sunday, adjusting for the games they played in and missed. It was so fucking stupid on so many levels. But I did it. And in the end, I got an expected number of … 64.4. Great, so an offensive lineman is likely to score on Sunday! In reality, it just suggests that the running backs for the teams are likely a little undervalued here, and that logic only goes further with a possibly-limited Gronkowski (number 87). Go under here, but realize that we're all losers for playing.

I have no interest in legitimately handicapping this (I guess that makes two of us), so I just adjusted the numbers for people listed at Pinny to make them fit to "an expected number of ... 64.4":

As noted, the weighted average of these is 64.4. Based on this information, Bill Barnwell recommended the under. Hopefully the reason that this is horrendous analysis is really obvious.

If you do this really sophisticated thing called adding, however, you get 48.5% for the under. With the exact same data set. With a line of -120. So an ROI of -11.1%. Sometimes referred to as lighting money on fire. While, based on that same (made up) data, the other side is +EV, with a 51.5% bet being offered at +100.

I don't really have a point to close with here, so:

The Most Ridiculous Super Bowl XLVI Props

Fifth annual, and still going strong(?). Here we go:

Who will win the Super Bowl XLVI Coin Toss?

SportsBetting:
Giants, +102
Patriots, +102

What will be the result of Super Bowl XLVI Coin Toss?

SportsBetting:
Heads, +102
Tails, +102

Not quite as good as last year, but this is still one of my favorites.

Will Gisele Bundchen be shown on TB during the game?
From kickoff to final whistle, live pictures only, halftime does not count.

Bodog:
Yes, -160
No, +120

5Dimes:
Yes, -215
No, +165

Arb! I tried to research this one but gave up after finding a fake Gisele Super Bowl blog and discovering that she is supposedly on her way to becoming very, very wealthy.

I went with "Yes, -160" at Bodog, which I cannot back up with math.

Who will be shown first?

SportsBetting:
Giselle Bundchen, -125
Abby Manning, -105

SportsInteraction
Giselle Bundchen, -120
Abby Manning, -120

I don't get why Giselle isn't favored by more; isn't she a LOT more famous than Eli's wife?

Who will the MVP thank first?

This one is the best. Sportsbook also has the same prop for winning coach rather than MVP, and is offering "Does Not Thank Anyone" at +800. My unofficial summary from the last four years:

Last year some books graded it as Rodgers thanking the defense (teammates), and some graded "Does Not Thank Anyone" as a winner since he didn't say the word "thank". Either way, +250 continues to be a great price, available across the board.

Color of Gatorade dumped on winning coach?

Not sure about this one. It's been orange the last two years, but yellow and clear the two before that; Stockle Mon has a more extensive summary. Since it was clear/water the last time each of these teams won and four of the last nine dumps, that seems like the best pick here if you can get the +215.

Will Kelly Clarkson omit/forget a word of the National Anthem?

5Dimes:
Yes, +700
No, -1500

Bodog:
Yes, +300

Inspired by last year's mishap. No real opinion here; if anything I'd take the +700 at 5D, but probably just stay away.

How long will it take Kelly Clarkson to sing the National Anthem?

5Dimes:
Over 1:34, +100
Under 1:34, -140

Sportsbook:
Over 1:35, -115
Under 1:35, -115

Bodog:
Over 1:34, -120
Under 1:34, -120

SportsInteraction:
Over 134.5, -115
Under 134.5, -125

Stockle Mon has also researched this one quite a bit (good work!), and it doesn't seem like there's much of an edge. So, when in doubt, line shop. Here is my completely-made-up estimate of the probability of the total time being within each second:
The thought behind the skew was that 1:34 is a pretty low time, so there's more room to go way higher than way lower.

That was an unbelievable waste of time, but it does allow me to see if a middle might be worthwhile:

That's assuming the 5Dimes line is efficient (which is not true at all), but you can shift the graph around a bit and you still come out ahead, so I went for the O1:34/U1:35 middle.

Which city will receive a higher TV ratings (market share)?

Bodog:
Boston -7, -120
New York +7, -120

Reader Will W. recommended this one, noting that he laid the chalk. Wikipedia tells us that Boston won by 14 four years ago (81-67), although it seems possible that was a bit inflated since the Pats were 18-0.

There are also a bunch of props on what Madonna will wear/do at halftime, but I don't have much to add to those.

The Most Ridiculous Super Bowl XLV Props

The fourth annual edition! Let's get right into it:

Who will win the Super Bowl XLV Coin Toss?

SportsBetting:

Steelers, +103
Packers, +103

Start off with an easy one. Plenty of shops are offering reduced juice on the coin toss (how generous!), but SBET is the only place I've seen plus money on either side, let alone both.

First team to kickoff will be?

Pinnacle:

Steelers -125
Packers +107

Does Pittsburgh have a tendency to defer to the second half? Pinnacle isn't in the business of just making stuff up (well, not usually), so there's likely a good reason this isn't 50-50, but I'm not sure where to look that up.

Color of Gatorade dumped on winning coach?

I used to think I had this one figured out -- it was clear/water for three consecutive years -- but not anymore, as C/W has lost the last two SBs and its odds have also come down. Tomlin is "not a proponent" of the Gatorade dump, so it may not happen at all, but that seems unlikely.

I went through the entire Yahoo! galleries for both conference title games (240 photos total!) and didn't see a drop of Gatorade, so no help there. Taking the best odds for each color, these only add up to 103%, so they're very beatable, but I'm just not sure where.

What side of the ball will the players that perform the Gatorade shower be from?

BetUS:

Offense, +130
Defense, -170

Bodog:

Offense, +150
Defense, -200

Sportsbook:

Offense, +165

Defense, -225

I definitely lean toward the defense here, although it's tough to know how much juice it's actually worth paying. Logic dictates that the defensive players are significantly more likely, since there are a lot more of them on the sideline when the offense is kneeling, but the books have adjusted to this seemingly obvious fact over the last couple years.

Time on the Game Clock When the Winning Team Attempts to Dump Gatorade on Head Coach

Sportsbook:

Over 45 seconds left in 4Q, +115
Under 45 seconds left in 4Q, -145

They do love these Gatorade props, and this is a new one. There are actually a lot of variables in play here. Will the game be close? Even if it is, will there be at least two kneel downs at the end? If there are, will the Gatorade be dumped after the last one, or prior to that. This opened at -120/-120, so I think it was bet in the right direction, but I can't find much value here.

Who will MVP thank 1st?

I love this one. The odds have come down a bit on "Does Not Thank Anyone", but not nearly enough, particularly at Sportsbook. For at least the last four years, the MVP has not technically thanked anyone. This isn't because they're not grateful -- I suspect they are -- but because it'd just be weird to specifically thank a group in an interview unless the question is, "Who would you like to thank?". For example, here is what I said about the MVP's interview last year:

Brees was plenty gracious -- he said "God is great", and talked about how the Saints had the best ownership, best head coach, best GM, and best team -- but none of those counted.

A similar prop is being offered for the winning coach's interview at a couple places and I think there's value there as well: +350 at BetUS, and +400 at Sportsbook.

Length of National Anthem:

Bodog:

Over 1:54, -160
Under 1:54, +120

Sportsbook:

Over 1:54, -200
Under 1:54, +150

Bodog actually opened this at 1:50 last week, so it's clear that bettors have been favoring the over.

The most relevant example here is definitely Aguilera's performance during the NBA Finals last summer. I've got that one at 1:52, which makes U1:54 +150 quite intriguing. Going back a few years, I'm getting 1:58 for her rendition at what I believe was the 2004 NBA All-Star game. But the drums in the background of that one add some uncertainty, and she actually sang "home of the brave" twice.

For another data point, at a hockey game that supposedly took place in August of 2005, she made it through in a swift 1:44. I think there is value in the under at Sportsbook here.

How long will Christina Aguilera hold the note “Brave” at the end of the National Anthem?

Bodog:

Over 6 seconds, -140
Under 6 seconds, EV

Sportsbook:

Over 6 seconds, -130
Under 6 seconds, -110

This is a good one, although she was at exactly six seconds last summer despite strangely walking off before finishing, so not much of a lean here.

What will Fergie be wearing at halftime?

BetUS:

Pants (blow knees), +175
Shorts (above knees), +400
Skirt/dress, +135
Thong/G-String/Bikini bottom, +1500
Tight bodysuit, +150

"Tight bodysuit" was actually 7-1 when I originally pulled these odds on Monday night. I don't really have much else to say here, but figured I'd share these. Especially if we have a situation like the Kardashian one last year, where she announces what she's going to wear prior to the game.

Will a punt hit the scoreboard during the game?

Sportsbook:

Yes, +1000
No, -2500

Tough to get rich laying -2500 on props with $50 limits, but is there really a 3.8% chance that a punt hits the scoreboard? It's my understanding that when Trapasso hit it in the preseason, it was on purpose, and I can't imagine the punters are going to be messing around like that on Sunday. The fact that this didn't come up at all during the regular season makes it even more likely that Trapasso was just being difficult.

How many times will FOX mention "lockout" (from kickoff to final whistle)?

Bodog:

Over 1.5, -110
Under 1.5, -130

They originally had this at 2.5, which I thought was definitely high. At this point it's really a matter of whether the lockout is brought up at all, since if it is they'll likely say "lockout" more than once. My lean would still be toward the under; as with the "thanks" props, I just don't think there's really going to be an appropriate time to bring up the impending labor issues. I wouldn't even be surprised if Buck and Aikman were specifically asked to not mention it during the league's premier event.

Highest rated commercial on USA Today Ad Meter:

Bodog/Sportsbook:

Bud Light, +275
Budweiser, +275
Doritos, +550
GoDaddy.com, +1000
Pepsi Max, +600
Skechers, +1200
Teleflora, +1500
Other, +250

The most exciting prop from XLIV returns, but the odds seem a lot more reasonable this year (sadly Bookmaker has not gotten involved).

With its strong showings the last two years (#1 in '09, #2 in '10), Doritos is interesting at +550. You can actually watch the five finalists from their "Crash the Super Bowl" contest here; I thought the first one was quite funny, but the other four were very mediocre. The Pepsi Max commercials are on that same page, none of them really stood out to me.

GoDaddy always gets a lot of publicity at this time of year (almost like they planned it that way), but is this commercial really the type that rates well on Ad Meter? I don't believe so.

It's too bad they split up Bud and Bud Light, because they are really a powerhouse. Unless someone digs up some more commercials, the only one I'd consider playing here is Doritos +550.

Half-Time Show - Will Big Ben hit on Fergie? (Will Ben Roethlisberger be seen talking to Fergie during half-time?)

SportsInteraction:

Yes, +1500

Okay, I think it's time to stop. Enjoy the game.

A New Approach to Seeding

I don't usually spend much time writing about what seed teams deserve. My focus tends to be on more of a predictive approach, for obvious reasons, and the current criteria for seeding the tournament is anything but that. They may give a nod to tempo-free stats every now and then, but the committee almost always looks at each game as a "1" or a "0", depending on whether you win or lose.

Even with this somewhat silly approach, I think there's room to take a more structured approach to seeding. What I set out to do was get a baseline for the strength of each team's schedule, and compare their record to that mark. The Pomeroy ratings give a Pythag number for each team's schedule -- that's what percentage of the time their average opponent would win against an average D-1 team.

For a couple reasons, that's not quite what I want. First, I'd rather take a more relevant team -- say, one that's right on the bubble -- and run it through each team's schedule. I'd also prefer to be able to remove certain games, particularly to judge the resumes of certain teams that were missing their player of the year candidate for a significant stretch.

To solve both these issues, I used the Pomeroy ratings to see what the expected record of a bubble team (I used Old Dominion, which isn't really on the bubble, especially after Monday night's win, but is 34th in Pomeroy, which is what I was looking for) would be against each potential tournament team's full schedule. We can get a baseline winning percentage from that; for example, ODU would be expected to win 75% of their games against Kentucky's schedule.

From there, we can compare UK's actual winning percentage, .935, against that baseline. So the Wildcats' resume comes out as +0.186, 5.8 wins above expectation. I repeated this exercise for 63 teams with tournament aspirations, as well as three additional times: one looking at only Ohio St.'s games with Evan Turner, one looking at Wisconsin only when Leuer played, and a third excluding the one full game Kalin Lucas missed from Michigan St.'s schedule.

Here's what I got for the top 10 resumes in the country, though Sunday's games:

Starting from the top, the Jayhawks have the best resume in the country; I don't think there's been much debate about that since Syracuse lost at Louisville this weekend.

The surprising thing here is probably Duke easily deserving a #1 seed. To be clear: Duke's lofty rating in KenPom has nothing to do with the Blue Devils' placement here. All that comes into play is their W-L record, and how ODU would do against their schedule.

Here's a slightly more detailed breakdown of Duke vs. the two non-Kansas #1 seed "locks":

Duke's big advantage is in conference play, which isn't quite what you'd expect since they have the worst conference W% of the three contenders.

It's really not what you'd expect in comparison to Syracuse, since the Big East is thought to be stronger than the ACC this year. And they probably do have more teams that can make a Final Four run, and will likely send more teams to the tournament. But the BE also has more teams that really suck.

Strangely enough, Duke's easiest conference game according to KenPom was their final one, home vs. UNC -- Old Dominion wins that game 78% of the time. Contrast that with Syracuse's schedule, which has five games that Old Dominion would win over 80% of the time: vs. USF, at Rutgers, at DePaul, vs. Providence, vs. St. John's. The ACC may have fewer elite teams than the Big East, but it also has fewer nights that you're almost guaranteed a victory.

The order is surprising, but if we skip over Purdue because of the Hummel injury, my rankings agree with the consensus on the four #1 seeds right now. If you put Purdue on the #2 line, my rankings there are fairly standard as well, with West Virginia, Ohio St. (with ET), and Villanova joining the Boilermakers on the second line.

My three seeds are a bit more interesting: Kansas St. and Wisconsin (with Leuer) as shown above, plus New Mexico and Baylor. I may mock the Lobos' tournament potential on Twitter on an almost hourly basis, but for this exercise "28-3" is all that matters, and that's pretty solid.

Kansas St. is a borderline two or three, which is right where they are in the Matrix right now. Losing to Iowa St., a team that ODU beats at home 82% of the time, really killed them.

Wisconsin is looking at a #4 right now, which I think is a bit low. Their resume with Leuer is very strong; only the one bad loss against their in-state rivals, and I don't know that any team can match wins against Maryland, Duke, Ohio St., and Purdue.

Baylor is a borderline 4-5 in the current matrix, behind teams like Tennessee and Vanderbilt. I do not understand this. The Bears have a better record than either of those SEC teams, and have done it against a more difficult schedule, regardless of whether you look at KenPom or RPI SOS. Baylor also has a very low RPI, at 8 -- I don't care about that, but the people putting the bracket together certainly do. Sometimes I think we give too much credit to "signature wins", particularly if they come at home; that may be happening with Tennessee's victories over Kansas and Kentucky.

My four through 11 seeds are here, but let's finish this up with a look at the bubble. Here's my analysis of Lunardi's last six in and first 10 out:

The biggest differences here are Illinois and Mississippi; I have the Illini well out and the Rebels easily in, while Lunardi has the opposite. Here's the breakdown:

Illinois' back-to-back losses to Utah and Bradley back in late November really kill them here. They do have non-con wins against Clemson and Vandy, but they also lost to UGA, Missouri, and Gonzaga, so they were actually only 2-3 in notable out of conference games. Ole Miss didn't have a great conference showing, but they have an excellent non-con win against K-State, also beat UTEP, and only lost extremely difficult games (vs. Villanova, at WVU).

The Most Ridiculous Super Bowl XLIV Props

Welcome to the third annual edition of our Super Bowl proposition bet coverage. I was hoping to wait out for BetUS and SportsBetting to post some interesting props before writing this, but they are really slacking. I'll have to include those in another post if they come up with anything good in the next couple days. For now it's mostly Bodog (as usual), with appearances from Sports Interaction and Bookmaker.

How long will it take Carrie Underwood to sing the National Anthem?

Bodog:
Over 1m 42s: +130
Under 1m 42s: -160

Sports Interaction:

Over 1m 38.5s: -125
Under 1m 38.5s: -115
It would be fun to go for the middle here, but the juice on U1:42 is just way too much. Looking at the variety of videos on YouTube of Underwood singing the Anthem, it looks like on average she comes in a bit under the Bodog total, but certainly not enough to pay the -165. Both of these lines seem about fair to me after considering the juice.

What Color will the Gatorade be that is dumped on the Head Coach of the Winning Super Bowl Team? (Bodog)
Lime Green: +600
Yellow: -125
Orange: +550
Red: +1250
Blue: +1250
Clear/Water: +160
Prior to last year, clear/water was riding a three Super Bowl winning streak, but that was snapped when the Steelers dumped yellow Gatorade on Tomlin. There may be some value in clear/water at +160, but I would hold off to see if BetUS posts anything, since last year they had that option at an absurd +700, which was a great price even though it lost.
Who will the Super Bowl MVP of the Game thank first? (Bodog)
God: -105
Family: +650
Teammates: +115
Coach: +1000
Does not thank anyone: +450

I think there's value in "doesn't thank anyone" here. Holmes didn't last year, and neither did Eli when they beat the Pats. At that point everything is just so disorganized, I think betting on chaos is the way to go. It's kind of strange that "doesn't thank anyone" is +450 given its success the last two SBs, but I get the feeling that most people don't pay a whole lot of attention to these things on a year-to-year basis.

How Many Times will CBS show Archie Manning on TV during the Game? (Bodog)
Over 4: -130
Under 4: EV

CNBC's Darren Rovell has had good coverage of this one, which actually opened at 2.5. According to Rovell's post, that opening number was based on a similar prop for Brenda Warner last year, but Bodog failed to consider Archie's Saints ties. They took a lot of action on O2.5, and eventually moved it all the way up to the number listed above.

I don't have any further analysis, just thought that was interesting.

Which CBS Show will get the most Promo’s during the game? (For a show to be counted it must appear in a picture box on the screen during the game broadcast only.) (Bodog)
Undercover Boss: -220
CSI: +625
CSI Miami: +450
NCIS: +525
NCIS LA: +1200
Big Bang Theory: +1500
How I Met Your Mother: +900
Two and a Half Men: +1500

Undercover Boss is a new CBS reality show that will be debuting immediately after the game. It actually opened at EV, but apparently received a lot of action at that price and moved significantly since then.

And with good reason, I think; the combination of being a new show and coming on immediately after the game has to give it a huge advantage. It's not like you have to leave this up to random chance either, which is always a problem when playing a big favorite. The CBS executives are in complete control of how many times they mention each show during the game, and you'd have to think that it'll be very frequent for a new show in that time slot.

Pinata Pick - Match Peyton's total pass yds and we'll pay 44/1 (Sports Interaction)

This would be a fun one to play, but there's no value here regardless of which number you pick. Here are Pinnacle's odds on his total passing yards:

0 to 100: +1000 (6.0%)
101 to 190: +600 (9.5%)
191 to 245: +400 (13.3%)
246 to 299: +180 (23.8%)
300 to 325: +220 (20.8%)
326 or more: +150 (26.6%)

When you consider how many yards are in each group, "300 to 325" is the sweet spot, with each of those single yards being about 125:1. Pinnacle also has the O/U on his passing yards at 308.5, with the under favored -118/+102. So if you're going to play this I'd go with 304 or so, but that's definitely -EV.

What will be the highest rated commercial on the USA Today Super Bowl Ad Meter?
Bodog:
Anheuser-Busch/Budweiser: -160
GoDaddy.com: +800
Career Builder: +800
Coca-Cola: +700
Family First: +1200
Doritos: +200
Other: +260

Bookmaker (under "Entertainment"):
Anheuser-Busch: +900
Pepsico's Frito-Lay (Doritos): +1650
33 other options: here

I think there is tremendous value in Anheuser-Busch and Doritos at Bookmaker here, and it goes beyond just comparing their odds to Bodog's. Busch won ten years in a row before Doritos broke their impressive streak last year. Even in defeat, Busch showed very strong, with their ads placing both second and third. In 2008 Busch placed first, fifth, and sixth, with Doritos coming in fourth. And in 2007 the two companies dominated the standings, monopolizing the top seven spots. Even at +900, Busch actually has the shortest odds of any of Bookmaker's 35 options; it's like BM was aware that they should be the favorite, but had now idea just how dominant they've been.

As for this year's game, the Clydesdales won't be appearing, but Busch has purchased five minutes worth of ads, and their non-Clydesdale commercials have scored well in the past. Doritos is running a similar contest to the one that landed them the top spot last year; they'll have three commercials during the game.

The Most Ridiculous Super Bowl XLIII Props

Not in list form like last year, but I was inspired by our discussion in the comments, and think I found some actual value.

If Barack Obama Picks a team to win Super Bowl XLIII during the Super Bowl pre-game show on NBC will the Presidents pick be correct? (SportsBetting)
Yes: -160
No: +130

Will Matt Millen pick the correct team to win Super Bowl XLIII during the Pre Game Show? (Bodog)
Yes: -225
No: +185

I'm not ready for a world where Matt Millen knows more about football than Barack Obama.

I think the most value here lies in Millen getting it wrong, and not (just) because he's not very bright. According to the Pinnacle moneyline, the Steelers have a 69.1% chance of winning, and the Cardinals are at 30.9%. For +185 to be +EV, you only need to win 35.1% of the time. Arizona has been getting a lot of love over the last couple weeks; there needs to be only an 11% chance of Millen taking the Cardinals for there to be value here*. I think there is.

Will [Larry Fitzgerald] make a one-handed reception in Super Bowl XLIII (No Reception=No Action) (SportsBetting)
Yes: +220
No: -300

You'd have to go with no here, right? This seems like as good a time as any to fade Fitzgeraled, since he's been getting so much love (and deservedly so). But is there really a 1 in 4 chance that he makes a one-handed catch on Sunday? Probably not the type of thing you'd want to lay -300 on, I guess.

During the Singing of The Star Spangled Banner will Jennifer Hudson Lip-Sync any part of the Song (SportsBetting)
Yes: +115
No: -145

Is it really all that common for people to be caught lip-syncing the National Anthem? Does Jennifer Hudson have a reputation for doing this? I have no idea, but I'd have to lean "No" here.

Who will the Super Bowl MVP of the Game Thank First?
SportsBetting:
Coach: +900
Doesn't thank anyone: +500
Family: +400
God: -125
Teammates: +200

BetUS:
God: -150
Coach: +800
Family: +400
Teammates: +200
Does not thank anyone: +500

God was +250 last year. I wonder what changed. Does anyone even know who Eli thanked? That's the problem with some of these, you never remember what the result was. Last year I was in transit during the pregame show and was frantically texting people trying to figure out if anyone picked the Giants (Caliendo did, apparently).

How Long will it take Jennifer Hudson to Sing the Star Spangled Banner (from starting note to last note sung)
SportsBetting:
Over 2 minutes and 1 second: -155
Under 2 minutes and 1 second: +125

Bodog:
Over 2m 1s: -160
Under 2m 1s: +130

BetUS:
Over 2m 3s: -115
Under 2m 3s: -115

I'm glad they clarified how it will be timed, I never would've guessed. There would be a nice middle here except for all the juice on the over. Unfortunately I don't have a half-point calculator for this type of things (half-second calculator?), but I'm pretty confident in saying there's no value in going for the middle.

Coin Toss (VIP)
Heads: +100
Tails: +100

VIP is also offering the game itself without juice, but that wouldn't have really fallen under the "props" category. What's interesting to me is that they also have a rewards system based on how much you bet. So why wouldn't you just bet half your account on either side, end up with the same amount of money, and get a bunch of rewards points?

For the record, the coin toss is a 50-50 proposition everywhere except Pinnacle, where the Cardinals are still slightly favored. And I couldn't get a straight answer for Pinny about what happened, beyond "We favor the Cardinals".

Color of Gatorade dumped on the Winning Head Coach
BetUS:
Lime Green: +400
Yellow: +200
Orange: +500
Red: +500
Clear/Water: +700
Blue: -130

Bodog:
Lime Green: +450
Yellow: +200
Orange: +300
Red: +550
Blue: +900
Clear/Water: +115

This is interesting just because of the huge discrepancy at the two books on the "clear/water" option. Thanks to the research of Stock Lemon, we know that "clear/water" has been the winner in each of the last three Super Bowls. I think there is significant value here. And this way you can be sure you'll have a rooting interesting until the bitter end. The maximum you can risk on this prop is $50.

Springsteen- 1st song of the Halftime show (Bodog)
Born in the USA: EV
The Rising: +500
The Wrestler: +700
Radio Nowhere: +800
I'm on Fire: +1500
Born to Run: +200
Glory Day: +250

I have no idea, I just figured I should include something about the halftime show. There is certainly nothing even approaching last year's Tom Petty props.

What Super Bowl Game Betting Line will Al Michaels allude to or mention first during the Game? (Bodog)
Pointspread: -500
Total: +350

Michaels is a fan of alluding to the line. I guess this means something like, "Some folks in Vegas will be happy about that" after a meaningless touchdown at the end of the game counts. No idea if there's any value here, but if forced I'd probably go with total.

How many food items will John Madden mention during the game? (Bodog)
Over 1.5: -280
Under 1.5: +220

The funny part about this is they easily could've put it at a higher number and had steep juice on the Under. However, I'm sure they figured it would be more amusing if the Over on how many food items Madden mentions was a huge favorite. Mission accomplished.

* - .691*.89 + .309*.11 = a 65% chance of him being right, or 35% chance of him being wrong.