Tuesday, January 31, 2012

This Is Also Completely Wrong

Same article:

Will Rob Gronkowski score a touchdown?
Yes: -160
No: +140

Will Rob Gronkowski score a touchdown in the first half?
Yes: +175
No: -200

These two bets, taken together, are a very weird mix. The given likelihood of Gronkowski scoring a touchdown in the first half is just 35.3 percent, but his odds of scoring a touchdown in the game are at 59.6 percent. Those two numbers imply that Gronkowski will score in the second half about 92.1 percent of the time, and that a bet on Gronkowski not scoring in the second half would have true odds of about +1166 or so. I hope somebody offers that.
I have no idea. 92.1%? I don't know, man.

Eighth(?) grade probability time!

The setup:

The math:

.647 * x = .404
x = .624
1-x = .376

The result:

So illogical!!!!

Doing the math wrong...whatever. But doing the math wrong, getting an answer that MAKES NO SENSE, assuming you are correct, and just going with it? And if those two lines were truly implying something insane for the 2H, wouldn't one side of the 1H or FG line have to be way off, too? So...maybe look into that?

1 comment:

  1. Haha, it's the last 2 articles that remind me why I follow you on Twitter. Nailed it! Not that tricky!