Tuesday, January 31, 2012

The Most Ridiculous Super Bowl XLVI Props

Fifth annual, and still going strong(?). Here we go:

Who will win the Super Bowl XLVI Coin Toss?

SportsBetting:
Giants, +102
Patriots, +102

What will be the result of Super Bowl XLVI Coin Toss?

SportsBetting:
Heads, +102
Tails, +102

Not quite as good as last year, but this is still one of my favorites.

Will Gisele Bundchen be shown on TB during the game?
From kickoff to final whistle, live pictures only, halftime does not count.

Bodog:
Yes, -160
No, +120

5Dimes:
Yes, -215
No, +165

Arb! I tried to research this one but gave up after finding a fake Gisele Super Bowl blog and discovering that she is supposedly on her way to becoming very, very wealthy.

I went with "Yes, -160" at Bodog, which I cannot back up with math.

Who will be shown first?

SportsBetting:
Giselle Bundchen, -125
Abby Manning, -105

SportsInteraction
Giselle Bundchen, -120
Abby Manning, -120

I don't get why Giselle isn't favored by more; isn't she a LOT more famous than Eli's wife?

Who will the MVP thank first?

This one is the best. Sportsbook also has the same prop for winning coach rather than MVP, and is offering "Does Not Thank Anyone" at +800. My unofficial summary from the last four years:

Last year some books graded it as Rodgers thanking the defense (teammates), and some graded "Does Not Thank Anyone" as a winner since he didn't say the word "thank". Either way, +250 continues to be a great price, available across the board.

Color of Gatorade dumped on winning coach?

Not sure about this one. It's been orange the last two years, but yellow and clear the two before that; Stockle Mon has a more extensive summary. Since it was clear/water the last time each of these teams won and four of the last nine dumps, that seems like the best pick here if you can get the +215.

Will Kelly Clarkson omit/forget a word of the National Anthem?

5Dimes:
Yes, +700
No, -1500

Bodog:
Yes, +300

Inspired by last year's mishap. No real opinion here; if anything I'd take the +700 at 5D, but probably just stay away.

How long will it take Kelly Clarkson to sing the National Anthem?

5Dimes:
Over 1:34, +100
Under 1:34, -140

Sportsbook:
Over 1:35, -115
Under 1:35, -115

Bodog:
Over 1:34, -120
Under 1:34, -120

SportsInteraction:
Over 134.5, -115
Under 134.5, -125

Stockle Mon has also researched this one quite a bit (good work!), and it doesn't seem like there's much of an edge. So, when in doubt, line shop. Here is my completely-made-up estimate of the probability of the total time being within each second:
The thought behind the skew was that 1:34 is a pretty low time, so there's more room to go way higher than way lower.

That was an unbelievable waste of time, but it does allow me to see if a middle might be worthwhile:

That's assuming the 5Dimes line is efficient (which is not true at all), but you can shift the graph around a bit and you still come out ahead, so I went for the O1:34/U1:35 middle.
Which city will receive a higher TV ratings (market share)?
Bodog:
Boston -7, -120
New York +7, -120

Reader Will W. recommended this one, noting that he laid the chalk. Wikipedia tells us that Boston won by 14 four years ago (81-67), although it seems possible that was a bit inflated since the Pats were 18-0.

There are also a bunch of props on what Madonna will wear/do at halftime, but I don't have much to add to those.

6 comments:

  1. Disappointed you didn't calculate expected jersey number. Amateur.

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  2. Actually I should do that this afternoon (except correctly).

    That situation may deserve its own post, really.

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  3. I have no evidence of this actually being value, but what are your thoughts on if Brady's son would be wearing a Brady jersey? I don't see a supermodel, and one of the more fashionable well-known men in the country dressing their son in the same thing Bubba, who will be on his 4th bag of Doritos, and his 14th Milwaukee's Best is wearing. I Google image'd him (research at its finest) and see no evidence of any Patriots gear, let alone Brady's himself. With that said, he wasn't exactly sporting a mini Louis Vuitton man-purse or anything that says "you'll never see me in a jersey". I'll be holding off unless we hear something like the Kardashian/Saints jersey news from that SB.

    Regarding Brady's wife being a lot more famous than Eli's, my only caution there would be that Abby may be sitting with Archie who could be shown sooner than Giselle.

    Love the post, although you are missing some of the hard hitting, and totally relevant analysis on past coin flips that Stockle Mon has.

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  4. What is this "Bodog" you speak of?

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  5. I also still refer to the guy who did "Hate Me Now" as Puffy, so you're probably not going to win this battle.

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  6. Long live Stockle Mon.

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