Who will win the Super Bowl XLVI Coin Toss?
What will be the result of Super Bowl XLVI Coin Toss?
Not quite as good as last year, but this is still one of my favorites.
Will Gisele Bundchen be shown on TB during the game?
From kickoff to final whistle, live pictures only, halftime does not count.
Arb! I tried to research this one but gave up after finding a fake Gisele Super Bowl blog and discovering that she is supposedly on her way to becoming very, very wealthy.
I went with "Yes, -160" at Bodog, which I cannot back up with math.
Who will be shown first?
Giselle Bundchen, -125
Abby Manning, -105
Giselle Bundchen, -120
Abby Manning, -120
I don't get why Giselle isn't favored by more; isn't she a LOT more famous than Eli's wife?
Who will the MVP thank first?
This one is the best. Sportsbook also has the same prop for winning coach rather than MVP, and is offering "Does Not Thank Anyone" at +800. My unofficial summary from the last four years:
Last year some books graded it as Rodgers thanking the defense (teammates), and some graded "Does Not Thank Anyone" as a winner since he didn't say the word "thank". Either way, +250 continues to be a great price, available across the board.
Color of Gatorade dumped on winning coach?
Not sure about this one. It's been orange the last two years, but yellow and clear the two before that; Stockle Mon has a more extensive summary. Since it was clear/water the last time each of these teams won and four of the last nine dumps, that seems like the best pick here if you can get the +215.
Will Kelly Clarkson omit/forget a word of the National Anthem?
Inspired by last year's mishap. No real opinion here; if anything I'd take the +700 at 5D, but probably just stay away.
How long will it take Kelly Clarkson to sing the National Anthem?
Over 1:34, +100
Under 1:34, -140
Over 1:35, -115
Under 1:35, -115
Over 1:34, -120
Under 1:34, -120
Over 134.5, -115
Under 134.5, -125
Stockle Mon has also researched this one quite a bit (good work!), and it doesn't seem like there's much of an edge. So, when in doubt, line shop. Here is my completely-made-up estimate of the probability of the total time being within each second:
The thought behind the skew was that 1:34 is a pretty low time, so there's more room to go way higher than way lower.
That was an unbelievable waste of time, but it does allow me to see if a middle might be worthwhile:
That's assuming the 5Dimes line is efficient (which is not true at all), but you can shift the graph around a bit and you still come out ahead, so I went for the O1:34/U1:35 middle.
Which city will receive a higher TV ratings (market share)?Bodog:
Boston -7, -120
New York +7, -120
Reader Will W. recommended this one, noting that he laid the chalk. Wikipedia tells us that Boston won by 14 four years ago (81-67), although it seems possible that was a bit inflated since the Pats were 18-0.
There are also a bunch of props on what Madonna will wear/do at halftime, but I don't have much to add to those.