The Most Ridiculous Super Bowl XLIII Props

Not in list form like last year, but I was inspired by our discussion in the comments, and think I found some actual value.

If Barack Obama Picks a team to win Super Bowl XLIII during the Super Bowl pre-game show on NBC will the Presidents pick be correct? (SportsBetting)
Yes: -160
No: +130

Will Matt Millen pick the correct team to win Super Bowl XLIII during the Pre Game Show? (Bodog)
Yes: -225
No: +185

I'm not ready for a world where Matt Millen knows more about football than Barack Obama.

I think the most value here lies in Millen getting it wrong, and not (just) because he's not very bright. According to the Pinnacle moneyline, the Steelers have a 69.1% chance of winning, and the Cardinals are at 30.9%. For +185 to be +EV, you only need to win 35.1% of the time. Arizona has been getting a lot of love over the last couple weeks; there needs to be only an 11% chance of Millen taking the Cardinals for there to be value here*. I think there is.

Will [Larry Fitzgerald] make a one-handed reception in Super Bowl XLIII (No Reception=No Action) (SportsBetting)
Yes: +220
No: -300

You'd have to go with no here, right? This seems like as good a time as any to fade Fitzgeraled, since he's been getting so much love (and deservedly so). But is there really a 1 in 4 chance that he makes a one-handed catch on Sunday? Probably not the type of thing you'd want to lay -300 on, I guess.

During the Singing of The Star Spangled Banner will Jennifer Hudson Lip-Sync any part of the Song (SportsBetting)
Yes: +115
No: -145

Is it really all that common for people to be caught lip-syncing the National Anthem? Does Jennifer Hudson have a reputation for doing this? I have no idea, but I'd have to lean "No" here.

Who will the Super Bowl MVP of the Game Thank First?
SportsBetting:
Coach: +900
Doesn't thank anyone: +500
Family: +400
God: -125
Teammates: +200

BetUS:
God: -150
Coach: +800
Family: +400
Teammates: +200
Does not thank anyone: +500

God was +250 last year. I wonder what changed. Does anyone even know who Eli thanked? That's the problem with some of these, you never remember what the result was. Last year I was in transit during the pregame show and was frantically texting people trying to figure out if anyone picked the Giants (Caliendo did, apparently).

How Long will it take Jennifer Hudson to Sing the Star Spangled Banner (from starting note to last note sung)
SportsBetting:
Over 2 minutes and 1 second: -155
Under 2 minutes and 1 second: +125

Bodog:
Over 2m 1s: -160
Under 2m 1s: +130

BetUS:
Over 2m 3s: -115
Under 2m 3s: -115

I'm glad they clarified how it will be timed, I never would've guessed. There would be a nice middle here except for all the juice on the over. Unfortunately I don't have a half-point calculator for this type of things (half-second calculator?), but I'm pretty confident in saying there's no value in going for the middle.

Coin Toss (VIP)
Heads: +100
Tails: +100

VIP is also offering the game itself without juice, but that wouldn't have really fallen under the "props" category. What's interesting to me is that they also have a rewards system based on how much you bet. So why wouldn't you just bet half your account on either side, end up with the same amount of money, and get a bunch of rewards points?

For the record, the coin toss is a 50-50 proposition everywhere except Pinnacle, where the Cardinals are still slightly favored. And I couldn't get a straight answer for Pinny about what happened, beyond "We favor the Cardinals".

Color of Gatorade dumped on the Winning Head Coach
BetUS:
Lime Green: +400
Yellow: +200
Orange: +500
Red: +500
Clear/Water: +700
Blue: -130

Bodog:
Lime Green: +450
Yellow: +200
Orange: +300
Red: +550
Blue: +900
Clear/Water: +115

This is interesting just because of the huge discrepancy at the two books on the "clear/water" option. Thanks to the research of Stock Lemon, we know that "clear/water" has been the winner in each of the last three Super Bowls. I think there is significant value here. And this way you can be sure you'll have a rooting interesting until the bitter end. The maximum you can risk on this prop is $50.

Springsteen- 1st song of the Halftime show (Bodog)
Born in the USA: EV
The Rising: +500
The Wrestler: +700
Radio Nowhere: +800
I'm on Fire: +1500
Born to Run: +200
Glory Day: +250

I have no idea, I just figured I should include something about the halftime show. There is certainly nothing even approaching last year's Tom Petty props.

What Super Bowl Game Betting Line will Al Michaels allude to or mention first during the Game? (Bodog)
Pointspread: -500
Total: +350

Michaels is a fan of alluding to the line. I guess this means something like, "Some folks in Vegas will be happy about that" after a meaningless touchdown at the end of the game counts. No idea if there's any value here, but if forced I'd probably go with total.

How many food items will John Madden mention during the game? (Bodog)
Over 1.5: -280
Under 1.5: +220

The funny part about this is they easily could've put it at a higher number and had steep juice on the Under. However, I'm sure they figured it would be more amusing if the Over on how many food items Madden mentions was a huge favorite. Mission accomplished.

* - .691*.89 + .309*.11 = a 65% chance of him being right, or 35% chance of him being wrong.

A Word of Warning

I was just looking at this weekend's college football lines at BetUS. I happened to not be logged in to my account at the time. A sampling:

Pretty good prices, at least as of about 8:30 EST on Tuesday night. Juicy dog lines are pretty typical at BetUS. But then I logged in:

Wow, those changed quickly!

Oh, wait. No they didn't. They didn't change at all. If you go right now, UVa is still +20.5. The lines just changed when I logged in. So I decided to investigate via Live Chat:

(Click to enlarge)

What a classy organization.

The Most Ridiculous Super Bowl XLII Props

There are plenty of props concerning the game on the field next Sunday. Who will score first, who'll be the MVP, even who will commit the first holding penalty. But it's the Super Bowl- who cares about the actual game? There are much more important things going on.

I looked around a few places for the best non-football props, but ended up only needing two sites- BetUS and Bodog. The following are the seven most ridiculous types of props I found. I tried to break down what the best wagers are, but I probably failed miserably.

7. How long will it take Jordin Sparks to sing the National anthem? (Bodog)

Over 1m42s (-115)
Under 1m 42s (-115)

Sparks sang the Anthem at last year's NBA Finals. It's on YouTube- it looks like she took 1:41. Darren Rovell analyzed this same line for Billy Joel last year, and noticed this:

"I looked at every Super Bowl national anthem YouTube could offer me. And guess what? Not one singer, at least what's online, has ever done the National Anthem at the Super Bowl under 1:44."

He goes on to note that Cher did it in 1:45, Mariah Carey in 1:55, Faith Hill at 2:00, and Beyonce in 2:09. These Super Bowl performers apparently add some extra "yeahs" and such- it looks like the Over would be a decent look here.

6. Commercial Props (Bodog)

BetUS has some boring ones, like the first ad during halftime (Bud Light and Go Daddy are both 4:1). But Bodog got creative:

Which Super Bowl commercial will have a higher rating on USA Today's annual Ad Meter?
Budweiser 1:2
Go Daddy.com 3:1
Pepsi 6:1
McDonald's 9:1
Victoria Secret 8:1
Other 2:1

Looks like Budweiser is the reigning champ. I'm assuming Budweiser includes Bud Light; those two combined to have six of the top seven ads last year. So it makes sense that Bud is the overwhelming favorite.

5. TV Broadcast Props (Bodog)

How Many Times will Joe Buck mention Peyton Manning's name during the Broadcast?
Over 5.5 (-125)
Under 5.5 (-115)

How many times will Archie Manning be shown on the TV Broadcast?
Over 4.5 (-150)
Under 4.5 (+110)

Will the entire Fox pre-game team pick the Patriots to win the Super Bowl?
Yes -180
No +140

I don't really understand the Peyton prop. If Buck says "Eli's brother, Peyton, won the Super Bowl last year. Manning...", does that count as one or two? I don't know.

For the pre-game picks prop, I'd have to go with "No". How many people are there on the set, four? I would think one of them will go against the grain, if only to make things interesting. Terry Bradshaw picked the Giants last week, so he'd be the one to do it.

Update: Lozo makes an excellent point in the comments:

"no. 5 being no is a lock. only because whoever works the giants locker room after the game will take the giants. that's the only reason bradshaw took the giants last week, and he'll probably do it again this week."

4. '72 Dolphins Props (Bodog)

If the Patriots win, will Bob Kraft mention the '72 Dolphins during the Trophy Presentation?
Yes (-135)
No (-105)
Will Don Shula be on the field to shake Belichick's hand after the game?
Yes +200
No -300

Why would Kraft mention the '72 Dolphins? They really haven't done anything to deserve a mention. I'd lean towards "No" on that first one.

I'm assuming Shula lives in Florida? Why would he go to the game in Arizona just to shake Belichick's hand? I guess that's why "No" is -300.

3. Who will the MVP of the Game thank first? (Bodog)

Teammates, 2:1
God, 5:2
Family, 2:1
Coach, 5:1
Doesn't thank anyone, 6:1

I looked around Google for Brady's acceptance speech the two times he's won the award, but couldn't find it. I actually think betting on the first two wouldn't be a bad idea, I would imagine it'd end up being one of those.

2. Colour of liquid winning Head Coach is doused in (BetUS)

Transparent +400
Green +500
Yellow +300
Orange +125
Red +300
Blue +1000
Purple +1600

I don't really have any insight to add here. This one is pretty awesome, though.

1. Tom Petty Props (BetUS)

Petty will be performing at halftime. There are the standard props on this sort of thing- what song he will open with (Running Down A Dream is the favorite at BetUS), and end with (Free Falling is 2:3 at Bodog). But those pale in comparison to the random props BetUS has thought up:

Tom Petty...
smokes a joint during half time show +2500
has a wardrobe malfunction +10000
streaks field during play +50000
will smash a guitar onstage +5000
will curse during performance +8000

I'm confused as to how the joint prop is the most likely. Tom Petty cannot smoke a joint during his performance. It's just not a possibility. Also, what exactly would a Tom Petty ""wardrobe malfunction" consist of? I don't think I want to know.

He could curse. But because of the "wardrobe malfunction" thing, they've got a delay now. So if he curses, but it gets edited out, what happens? There are just so many unanswered questions here.

Update: I e-mailed BetUS about the cursing thing, here's the response I got:

"Dear Jacob, Thank you for your question. For it to be graded as a winner, Tom Petty cursing needs to be shown either on tv, on the newspaper the day after, internet, etc. The point is, it needs to be of public knowledge that he did for you to win that bet. Regards, Rick Account Manager"

I think this is good news for this bet. It'll be all over the internet if he curses, even if it's not broadcast.

Update 2: The odds on two of the Tom Petty props have been adjusted. The joint one is now +4000, and cursing is down to +5000. I'd like to think that this post had something to do with that.

Update 3: Smokes a joint is now 100:1, cursing is down to 20:1, and all is right in the world.