Friday, November 7, 2014

The Long Con of @RJinVegas: #TERNDZ (Part Three)

RJ Bell is the founder and CEO of, a sports betting website that includes forums, odds, contests, and picks (both of the free and for purchase varieties). It is one of the most successful sites of its kind, in no small part due to the popularity of Bell, who has accumulated over 80K Twitter followers and established himself as the mainstream media's go-to "expert" for stories involving gambling on sports.

An American success story if there every was one. That's only one side of it, though. In some corners of the internet (including this blog), there is a feeling that Bell has not found his success in a legitimate way. This is the 14th post in a series detailing the reasoning behind that particular feeling. If you'd like to start at the beginning, it's here.

This man is out of control. From Monday afternoon:

Great info as always. A slight disagreement, though:

Hmm. For some clarity, let's check Covers (excluding Week 9, because "entering this week"):

Okay, fair enough. If you count the 49ers game as a loss (or even a push), the Chiefs only had five ATS covers coming into the week. Makes sense, as long as you don't...

Oh damn it.

Don't see any getting around this one. RJ is using KC +4.5/5 to make the Colts stat work, and KC +5.5 to claim they've covered seven straight. He was corrected twice along the way, and obviously ignored the haters both times.

Previous Long Con post: #TERNDZ (Part Two)

1 comment:

  1. RJ is a joke. Just this year, in support of his garbage trends, among things, he's simultaneously: (a) claimed a +12 2005 NBA line when every database on earth shows +15 or higher; (b) argued that NFL closing lines should be determined by reference to the amount of money bet on a particular line, regardless of the closing number (DEN-1@NE 2013); (c) argued that NFL closing lines should be determined by reference to the biggest and sharpest books' closing number, regardless of amount of money bet (NYJ+7@GB 2014); and, (d) cited, a notorious stiff book, for off-market futures numbers (AUB 12-1 to win Nat'l Champ. as of 11/4/14).

    See post #363 here: