CAR: W, 30-20
PHI: L, 48-30
KC: W, 56-31
ATL: W, 27-26
DEN: L, 27-20
NO: L, 27-16
SF: W, 33-14
IND: W, 25-3
DET: L, 18-16
Pretty rough week, with 41.5% of OFP getting knocked out, which puts us at 0.30% of initial entries.
Teams used: Lions, Eagles, Broncos, Colts, Packers, Bears, Falcons. 49ers, Seahawks, Saints, Giants, Texans, Cowboys, Cardinals, Panthers.
(Not sure what's going on with all this? Click here for a primer.)
This week's consensus numbers from OFP:
San Diego (vs. Oakland; Safety Rating™ 8.21)
The Chargers are the biggest favorite I have available by a decent margin, but seem too popular at this point.
Cincinnati (vs. Minnesota; SR 7.58)
This could end up being my best option based on line movement, but seems slightly worse than Kansas City at the moment.
San Francisco (vs. Atlanta; SR 8.51)
Already used. They're probably going to win, though.
Detroit (vs. NY Giants; SR 8.03)
Denver (at Houston; SR 8.21)
Kansas City (vs. Indianapolis; SR 7.28)
Slightly lower SR than the Bengals, but quite a bit less popular; this looks good for now.
St. Louis (vs. Tampa Bay; SR 6.85)
SR not high enough.
Philadelphia (vs. Chicago; SR 5.79)
Seattle (vs. Arizona; SR 8.34)
Definitely a week where things could change over the next few days, but for now this week's pick is the Chiefs.
Update (12/20, 9:52am): The Bengals have gotten bet a bit, as have the Colts, so switching this week's pick to Cincinnati.