Wednesday, December 18, 2013

2013 NFL Survivor: Week 16


Last week:
CAR: W, 30-20
PHI: L, 48-30
KC: W, 56-31
ATL: W, 27-26
DEN: L, 27-20
NO: L, 27-16
SF: W, 33-14
IND: W, 25-3
DET: L, 18-16

Pretty rough week, with 41.5% of OFP getting knocked out, which puts us at 0.30% of initial entries.

Teams used: Lions, Eagles, Broncos, Colts, Packers, Bears, Falcons. 49ers, Seahawks, Saints, Giants, Texans, Cowboys, Cardinals, Panthers.

(Not sure what's going on with all this? Click here for a primer.)

This week's consensus numbers from OFP:


San Diego (vs. Oakland; Safety Rating™ 8.21)

The Chargers are the biggest favorite I have available by a decent margin, but seem too popular at this point.

Cincinnati (vs. Minnesota; SR 7.58)

This could end up being my best option based on line movement, but seems slightly worse than Kansas City at the moment.

San Francisco (vs. Atlanta; SR 8.51)

Already used. They're probably going to win, though.

Detroit (vs. NY Giants; SR 8.03)

Already used.

Denver (at Houston; SR 8.21)

Already used.

Kansas City (vs. Indianapolis; SR 7.28)

Slightly lower SR than the Bengals, but quite a bit less popular; this looks good for now.

St. Louis (vs. Tampa Bay; SR 6.85)

SR not high enough.

Philadelphia (vs. Chicago; SR 5.79)

Already used.

Seattle (vs. Arizona; SR 8.34)

Already used.

Definitely a week where things could change over the next few days, but for now this week's pick is the Chiefs.

Update (12/20, 9:52am): The Bengals have gotten bet a bit, as have the Colts, so switching this week's pick to Cincinnati.

7 comments:

  1. Back to double picks in this one, should be "fun".

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    Replies
    1. I think I'm going through #CHAD withdrawal - I just spent an hour breaking down your and your opponents' possibilities.

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    2. Yeah. Bowl pool never really came together, but should definitely do something for playoffs.

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  2. pretty much love the idea of double picks spread throughout the season instead of only at the end.

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    Replies
    1. Yeah, the format of that pool is great.

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  3. Thank you for your help all season. I'm one of 7 entries left in my league. The margin of victory for each pick gets totaled up throughout the season in order to determine the order of finish. I'm in first by 4 points. Does it make sense to try and copy the 2nd place team so he can't leapfrog me? Or just keep picking winners and hope the margin of victory works out?

    If it makes sense to copy him he's likely going to use San Diego this week since the only real option he has next week is Cincinnati (already used New England and Kansas City).

    Thanks, again.

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    Replies
    1. Yeah, seems like your goal at this point is really just to get to the end of the season with the tiebreaker lead, and the Chargers would definitely be the best option for that.

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