STL: W, 34-20
ATL: L, 30-28
SD: L, 27-17
GB: W, 22-9
DEN: W, 51-48
SF: W, 34-3
CLE: W, 37-24
Geno Madness! San Diego's five turnovers helped a bit, but Nick Folk's game-winning FG was the main reason that 41.3% of OFP was eliminated this week, bringing us to 26.2% of initial entries.
Teams used: Lions, Eagles, Broncos, Colts, Packers.
(Not sure what's going on with all this? Click here for a primer.)
This week's consensus numbers from OFP and Yahoo!:
If you haven't used the Broncos yet, it'd probably be a good idea to go ahead and do that now. Sure, they have future value, and it seems like it'll be impossible for them to be this popular again. But they're not THAT popular, and Denver is favored by 26.5; it's not going to get much better than this.
We're also reaching the point in the season where it's worth checking how many people in your pool even have a team available. In one pool I'm in, only 23.5% of survivors still have the Broncos, so the above consensus numbers don't seem very realistic in that situation.
San Francisco (vs. Arizona; SR 8.30)
Not bad, but I think I'll probably end up saving the 49ers until after the rest of the world takes them in Week 8 (@JAX).
Kansas City (vs. Oakland; SR 7.88)
Chicago (vs. NY Giants; SR 7.71)
These two have comparable win probability/popularity combos right now, although the Bears are a bit better since they're less popular (particularly in Yahoo!). Throw in the Chiefs having more future value, and the fact that Chicago should end up less popular than this since they're playing on Thursday, and the Bears look like the better option here.
Seattle (vs. Tennessee; SR 8.59)
The Seahawks definitely have the best WP/pop combination of the teams I have left. But they just have so much future value. Too many people have already used Seattle for them to ever be very popular again, and they still have home games against the Bucs, Vikings, Cardinals, and Rams (W17). The Seahawks are a good option in smaller pools (say, fewer than 15 entries remaining) but for my purposes I think they'll be a better pick down the road.
Houston (vs. St. Louis; SR 7.55)
The Texans have too much future value to use them here. See you in Week 11 or 12 (probably 12).
Cincinnati (at Buffalo; SR 7.38)
A decent option, as they'll be squaring off against Duke legend Thad Lewis, but the Bengals don't compare favorably to the Bears.
Dallas (vs. Washington; SR 6.89)
Not a high enough SR.
This week's pick is the Bears.