Wednesday, October 2, 2013
2013 NFL Survivor: Week 5
DEN: W, 52-20
IND: W, 37-3
CIN: L, 17-6
NO: W, 38-17
KC: W, 31-7
SF: W, 35-11
TEN: W, 38-13
BAL: L, 23-20
WAS: W, 24-14
I tried to warn them, but 8.0% of OFP still went with Cincy. Adding in the Ravens loss and some others that knocked a few people out, 12.6% of OFP was eliminated in W4, bringing us to 44.7% of initial entries.
Teams used: Lions, Eagles, Broncos, Colts.
(Not sure what's going on with all this? Click here for a primer.)
This week's consensus numbers from OFP and Yahoo!:
St. Louis (vs. Jacksonville; Safety Rating™ 8.25)
This is getting tiresome already, and it's only Week 5. The problem is that the Jags really are so epically awful that this isn't a bad pick, especially since the Rams do not have any future value. But it seems like the St. Louis' pick % increases every time I refresh OFP, so let's keep going.
Atlanta (vs. NY Jets; SR 8.03)
Too popular as well, and with a lower SR and more future value. The Falcons may end up being a good option in Week 7, when they host the Bucs.
San Diego (at Oakland; SR 6.61)
Seems like a good time for a reminder that this game kicks of at 11:35pm EST on Sunday night, which is awesome. The Chargers are only favored by four though, and have some future value, with a game in Jacksonville, and the Raiders' return trip to SD.
Green Bay (vs. Detroit; SR 7.40)
Denver (at Dallas; SR 7.46)
San Francisco (vs. Houston; SR 7.17)
These three are all fairly similar, although I've already used the Broncos. I wouldn't use Denver regardless, since their future value is kind of a big deal.
I'd prefer Green Bay out of this group, partially because the gap between their SR and San Francisco's is even bigger at CRIS. But you're obviously giving up a lot of future value there, as the Packers still host Cleveland, Minnesota, and Pittsburgh.
Cleveland (vs. Buffalo; SR 6.49)
There is one and only one obvious spot to use the Browns after Week 5. But it seems like JAX@CLE in W13 will be very similar to JAX@STL in W5, which isn't all that promising. It'd be nice of Cleveland's SR was a bit higher here, but there's at least one obvious flaw with each of this week's options.
I think it comes down to the Packers and Browns. Green Bay will be a better pick in pools with fewer people remaining, since the biggest issue with taking them is giving up so much future value.
That doesn't help much for the blog pick, since we're in this for all 17 weeks (unless it's 2010). But it seems like there will be other reasonable options in Weeks 7, 12, and 16, when Green Bay will have its highest SRs. So this week's pick is the Packers.