Thursday, September 26, 2013
2013 NFL Survivor: Week 4 (Loser Pools)
Raiders came through for us last week. W4:
Philadelphia (at Denver; Safety Rating™ 1.76)
This is where consensus numbers would really come in handy. The Eagles do still play at Green Bay, but their SR is unlikely to be this low again. However, Philly seems REALLY obvious this week; Denver is the most popular team in normal pools, and that's with a) a bunch of people having already picked them, and b) the Broncos having way more future value in winner pools than the Eagles do in loser pools.
Jacksonville (vs. Indianapolis; SR 2.31)
Complete waste of the Jags.
Miami (at New Orleans; SR 2.77)
Intriguing. The Dolphins do play at New England in Week 8, but there look to be no shortage of big mismatches that week.
NY Giants (at Kansas City; SR 3.51)
I think you're giving up too much SR this week once you get this far down the list.
Seems really close between the Eagles and Dolphins. If 53% are taking Philly, and 15% are taking Miami, then they're pretty much equal. So it's just a guessing game around those numbers. The W1-W3 popularity numbers for your particular pool may be worth looking at here, just to get a sense of how popular the most obvious picks (OAK in W1, NYJ in W2, JAX in W3) have been. For the sake of a blog pick, I'll go with the Eagles.