IND: W, 21-17
NE: W, 23-21
PIT: L, 16-9
TB: L, 18-17
DEN: W, 49-27
HOU: W, 31-28
KC: W, 28-2
SEA: W, 12-7
STL: W, 27-24
DET: W, 34-24
Nearly complete chaos at the top, particularly with the Colts, but it ended up being a very standard week, with 79.2% of OFP advancing.
Teams used: Lions.
This week's consensus numbers from OFP and Yahoo!:
New England (vs. NY Jets; Safety Rating™ 8.32)
Such a beautiful SR, but too popular and with plenty of future value.
Baltimore (vs. Cleveland; SR 7.22)
Confused by this; we all watched the game on Thursday, yes? Did the previously modest expectations for the 2013 Ravens increase when they held Peyton to just seven passing TDs? Because they're really not that good, and are only the sixth biggest favorite on the board this week.
Houston (vs. Tennessee; SR 7.84)
Definitely a solid option, as the Texans have the #2 SR by a decent margin, and aren't unreasonably popular. The one concern here is future value, with home games still to come against the Rams, Raiders, and Jags. We'll come back to this.
This would be an amusing pick, and the Raiders have absolutely no future value. But some other folks clearly had this idea as well, and there are an impressive seven teams favored by more than Oakland this week.
Atlanta (vs. St. Louis; SR 7.18)
The Falcons have surprisingly little future value; vs. NYJ in W5 will clearly be a high SR, but there's a good chance that ends up being too obvious. And nothing after that really jumps out on their schedule. But this is just not a strong enough SR/popularity combo.
Philadelphia (vs. San Diego; SR 7.49)
Solid. The Eagles are 75% to win this week, and not popular at all. It's a bit difficult to know exactly how much future value they have, as I don't think anybody is quite sure about the Chip Kelly era at this point. But it certainly doesn't seem like all that much; a home date against the Cardinals in Week 13 is the only thing that really jumps out.
Green Bay (vs. Washington; SR 7.50)
Cincinnati (vs. Steelers; SR 7.45)
Neither of these are bad, but both have more future value than Philadelphia. The Bengals host the Jets, Browns, and Vikings later in the season, while Green Bay has home games against Cleveland, Minnesota, and Pittsburgh.
New Orleans (at Tampa Bay; SR 6.11)
Chicago (vs. Minnesota; SR 7.02)
For a decent team, the Bears have a shockingly small amount of value after this week; they host the Giants, Lions, and Ravens, but those are all tough to get excited about. I think you're giving up too much SR this week to choose Chicago over Philadelphia, but the Bears are a good option if you're working with multiple entries.
Quite a few reasonable picks out there this week; I'd say Houston and Philly are probably the two best. I think I'd end up regretting taking the Texans here once Weeks 11 & 12 come around, so this week's pick is the Eagles.