Wednesday, September 4, 2013
2013 NFL Survivor: Week 1
2010: 3-3 then gave up, dark times in blog history
Thinking 5-3 before I lose interest and go dark this season? Let's get it.
This week's consensus numbers from OFP and Yahoo!:
Indianapolis (vs. Oakland; Safety Rating 7.88)
So obvious. Way too popular; go Raiders.
New England (at Buffalo; SR 7.91)
This line got as high as 10.5 at one point during the Tuel era, but has come back down a bit. This really isn't a bad option, but taking the Pats on the road in Week 1 doesn't seem like the best approach.
Pittsburgh (vs. Tennessee; SR 7.29)
The Steelers are a solid pick this week, although Tennessee has gotten bet a bit over the past few days. The only real issue is that Pittsburgh does have some future value, with home games against the Bills and Browns, and even a trip to Oakland in Week 8. That being said, the Browns game is in Week 17; using Pittsburgh this early seems reasonable.
Tampa Bay (at NY Jets; SR 6.26)
Absolutely not, but just want to point out that opening the season as a nearly 3.5-point home dog against the Bucs does not reflect especially well on the state of your franchise.
Denver (vs. Baltimore; SR 7.47)
As intrigued as I am by the idea of losing in game #1 of 256, Denver really has an obscene amount of future value. Taking them here would be a complete waste.
Houston (at San Diego; SR 6.37)
Horrible option, why would anybody do this?
Kansas City (at Jacksonville; SR 6.42)
Seattle (at Carolina; SR 6.25)
Can't see any reason to get involved with either of these.
St. Louis (vs. Arizona; SR 6.84)
Detroit (vs. Minnesota; SR 6.87)
These are really similar, and both seem pretty strong. The Lions are both marginally more likely to win and slightly less popular. It's a gap which could be covered by future value, but Detroit's home schedule is really difficult after Sunday: CHI, CIN, DAL, TB, GB, BAL, NYG.
You're obviously giving up a significant amount of SR by taking the Lions rather than the Steelers, but it really seems like a better option in every other sense. This week's pick is Detroit.