Wednesday, December 19, 2012
2012 NFL Survivor: Week 16
MIA: W, 24-3
DET: L, 38-10
SEA: W, 50-17
SD: L, 31-7
NO: W, 41-0
HOU: W, 29-17
CIN: W, 34-13
OAK: W, 15-0
WAS: W, 38-21
What a weird week; notice the absence of single-digit margins above. We lost 26.3% of survivors in Week 15, bringing us to 1.6% of initial entries.
Teams used: Eagles, Bengals, Cowboys, Texans, Ravens, Bucs, Giants, Bears, Packers, Patriots, Falcons, Titans, Lions, 49ers, Seahawks.
This week's consensus numbers from OFP and Yahoo!:
Carolina (vs. Oakland; Safety Rating 7.78)
Big favorites, but too popular to take here.
Indianapolis (at Kansas City; SR 7.27)
Not a very good option given their popularity and unimpressive SR.
New England (at Jacksonville; SR 8.89)
Denver (vs. Cleveland; SR 8.71)
By far the strongest option I have available. There's some temptation to save Denver one last time, since they'll be hosting the Chiefs in Week 17. However, if HOU and DEN win this week, and NE loses, then Denver will be locked into the #2 seed, and won't care about their game next week. There's only about a 7% chance of that happening, but given that there's a 100% chance that the Broncos will be by far the best option this week, I think now is the time to use Denver.
Green Bay (vs. Tennessee; SR 8.52)
Washington (at Philadelphia; SR 7.14)
Aside for Denver, I think the Redskins are the best option I have available this week, with a solid SR and very low popularity.
This week's pick is the Broncos.