Last week:
MIA: W, 24-3
DET: L, 38-10
SEA: W, 50-17
SD: L, 31-7
NO: W, 41-0
HOU: W, 29-17
CIN: W, 34-13
OAK: W, 15-0
WAS: W, 38-21
What a weird week; notice the absence of single-digit margins above. We lost 26.3% of survivors in Week 15, bringing us to 1.6% of initial entries.
Teams used: Eagles, Bengals, Cowboys, Texans, Ravens, Bucs, Giants, Bears, Packers, Patriots, Falcons, Titans, Lions, 49ers, Seahawks.
This week's consensus numbers from OFP and Yahoo!:
Carolina (vs. Oakland; Safety Rating 7.78)
Big favorites, but too popular to take here.
Indianapolis (at Kansas City; SR 7.27)
Not a very good option given their popularity and unimpressive SR.
New England (at Jacksonville; SR 8.89)
Already used.
Denver (vs. Cleveland; SR 8.71)
By far the strongest option I have available. There's some temptation to save Denver one last time, since they'll be hosting the Chiefs in Week 17. However, if HOU and DEN win this week, and NE loses, then Denver will be locked into the #2 seed, and won't care about their game next week. There's only about a 7% chance of that happening, but given that there's a 100% chance that the Broncos will be by far the best option this week, I think now is the time to use Denver.
Green Bay (vs. Tennessee; SR 8.52)
Already used.
Washington (at Philadelphia; SR 7.14)
Aside for Denver, I think the Redskins are the best option I have available this week, with a solid SR and very low popularity.
This week's pick is the Broncos.
It seems to me that your goal is to get every game correct. If that is the case, popularity shouldn't matter, am I right?
ReplyDeleteThe goal is to maximize your chances of a) getting every game correct, and b) having to split the pot with the fewest number of people if you do so.
DeleteI wrestle with this. I went out on TB/Cle week 14 instead of taking SF/Den. Was I better off just taking the more likely winners for the week? I understand about future value, but I had more options downstream. I am starting to feel that picking winners is much more important than how popular a team is. Take Sea over AZ. Extremely popular, but who cares if they destroy the team? Other than the 1-2 upsets this year (KC over NO and AZ over NE that knocked a few people out) how has avoiding the most popular game helped one this year? It seems to me (like myself in week 14) that I ran myself right out of the pool by avoiding the most likely winners.
DeleteYou can feel however you want, but this is an issue of math, rather than some deep philosophical debate.
DeleteI don't disagree, but what is the math in layman's terms?
DeleteIf you're comparing two options, and one team is 77.8% to win with 38.6% taking them, and the other is 71.4% to win with 4.2% taking them, which option gives you better odds to win the pool given the four possible scenarios (both probability of each scenario and how many people would be left)?
DeleteRepeat.
I'm with you now. Thank you. I wished I followed you in week 14. Next year, I'm setting aside one team where I just follow your path. Great work.
DeleteIs the only difference between Washington and Indy popularity? You dismiss the SR of Indy as unimpressive, but call Washington's SR solid (even though its less than Indy)
ReplyDeleteYes, but at least according to the available consensus numbers it is quite a large difference in popularity.
DeleteI have enjoyed reading your blog all year. I like your comments about Denver as I have them left too. I go back and forth as they are solid in Week 17 if NE wins both games as I think they will. But do I take a chance and pick someone else this week. And if I take Denver this week, do I leave my chances to Tenn or maybe Seattle (who may have nothing to play for and just rest people)? Any additional insight would be great.
ReplyDeleteI forgot to incorporate the Pats also needing to win their Week 17 game for DEN's to matter, since they play before DEN, good point. That brings it up to 15-16% that Denver's W17 doesn't count. I think because of that it makes sense to take them now, they are just the best available option by so much in W16.
Delete3 teams left in my pool, and both have pretty consistently stuck with the highest spread available the past couple weeks as the teams have dwindled down...does that make Colts my best option likely, assuming they'll both go Carolina?
ReplyDeleteThanks!
Colts seem solid if you're confident the other two will take Carolina.
Delete