Last week:
SF: L, 16-13
BUF: W, 34-18
DAL: W, 38-33
NE: W, 23-16
CHI: L, 23-17
BAL: L, 23-20
DEN: W, 31-23
NYJ: W, 7-6
GB: W, 23-14
CAR: L, 27-21
DET: L, 35-33
The PBP of the fourth quarter of the Lions game is painful; that was quite a collapse. That line kept getting bet up after I posted last week (SR closed at 7.45); sometimes there's just not much you can do. We lost 34.2% of OFP entries in Week 13, bringing us down to 2.7% of where we started.
Teams used: Eagles, Bengals, Cowboys, Texans, Ravens, Bucs, Giants, Bears, Packers, Patriots, Falcons, Titans, Lions.
This week's consensus numbers from OFP and Yahoo!:
Seattle (vs. Arizona; Safety Rating 8.35)
Big favorites, but far too popular in a week with an unusually high number of decent options (which is partially caused by so many people taking SEA).
San Francisco (vs. Miami; SR 8.22)
The 49ers keep losing or tying as big favorites, so they're more popular here than I'd expected (although I still doubt they're this popular in normal full-season leagues). Either way, they are big favorites and 11% in OFP/Yahoo isn't that bad. The only other time to use them would be in Week 17 (vs. Arizona); the concern there is that San Francisco will be locked into a playoff spot and won't play everyone.
Tampa Bay (vs. Philadelphia; SR 7.71)
Already used.
Indianapolis (vs. Tennessee; SR 6.90)
Not big enough favorites.
Denver (at Oakland; SR 8.32)
Saving for Week 16.
Cleveland (vs. Kansas City; SR 7.25)
The Browns are a decent option if they're really this unpopular (which I doubt), but I'd rather take the 49ers here.
Pittsburgh (vs. San Diego; SR N/A)
It sounds like Roethlisberger is probably going to play, but I wouldn't mess around with this one.
Atlanta (at Carolina; SR 6.31)
Not a high enough SR.
This week's pick is the 49ers.
My choice boils down to the Packers or the Steelers (used SF/Den/TB). Thoughts? Probably playing it safe and using GB, especially because I have to submit today. Only entry (16 left) that have them available.
ReplyDeleteYeah, I think GB if you have to submit today.
DeleteThanks. Other option would be Cle but given I'm the only one with GB I'll roll with them.
DeleteVegas ,
ReplyDeleteAgain love your insight so thanks. Of your list up top I have Bucs,Colts,Denver,Pitt,Clev left. Pool stats are 8 left with most using pitt and denver already so I think saving them for week 16 makes sense here. With that being said that leaves Bucs colts pitt and clev. I was thinking at first taking Pitt as I just dont trust the colts. I picked dallas last week and philly scared me so thats why I am scared with the bucs. So in my spot who would you take? Thanks so much
Zw
Year 5, Week 14, and people still think I care about which teams they "don't trust" and are "scared" of. It's amazing, really.
DeleteThat whole paragraph was fairly incoherent, are you saying most people have used PIT/DEN in prior weeks or are using them this week?
Most people have used Pit and Den. Only have to pick one team. You like indy or tampa better thats what I was trying to get at.
DeleteTampa.
DeleteVW,
ReplyDelete40 entries still alive, and we have to continue picking 2 teams each week for the remainder of the season. As I mentioned last week you can survive on 1 win if no one picks 2 correctly, but that is pretty unlikely still at this point.
Teams Picked: PHI, NYG, CHI, DEN, HOU, MIA, MIN, GB, DET, BAL, ATL, CIN, DAL, NE
Some other stats if helpful for the teams I could pick:
5 can use SF
21 can use SEA
Only 2 others could take a SF/SEA combo
35 can use TB
35 can use IND
39 can use CLE
I like the strength of the SF/SEA combo but am curious if you think I should go in a different direction for the 2nd pick. Thanks!
SF/SEA seems legit. Seahawks are going to be pretty popular but I don't see a very good alternative (Bucs, I guess), and obviously there won't be many other taking SF.
DeleteHere's my scenario:
ReplyDeletehttp://img534.imageshack.us/img534/8572/capturejz.jpg
Pretty sick that I've had complete separation almost the entire time. My options this week are Seattle, Tampa, Indy, or Cleveland. Leaning Seattle at this point just because it's such a huge difference in safety rating. #4 will be on San Francisco most likely. Maybe 1 other person jumps on Tampa.
I have a feeling you'd tell me to go with Tampa. Thoughts?
If you assume that the others will go SEA/SEA/SF/TB, which seems like a reasonable guess at the most likely scenario, then the two options (SEA or TB) are essentially equal. I think it's more likely that SEA is more popular than that and/or TB is less popular than that than vice versa, so I'd go with TB, but don't think there's a huge difference either way.
DeleteThanks for the input! Is it worth bumping down to the next tier for Cleveland for complete separation? Is there enough future value in TB vs. STL in Week 16 to warrant a save?
DeleteBucs have value in Week 16, but Seahawks also could be solid in Week 17; I wouldn't give too much weight to either of those.
DeleteI wouldn't take the Browns; if you assume two people take SEA, one takes TB, and nobody else takes CLE, they are all very comparable options, but it's entirely possible that someone else will take CLE.
Thanks again for your perspective. It makes more sense to me now to take Tampa. Week 15 is not good for me, seeing as I've already used Miami. Tampa gives me the best chance at separation this week and an outright win for the pool.
DeleteHi Vegas, Thanks again for a successful selection last week (Dallas) and the advice to evaluate my plans week by week. You were correct in saying that SEA would be the overwhelming consensus pick this week, and based on that, it doesn't look as if SEA will be the best pick in my pool.
ReplyDelete15 of us remain (lost 4 last week) from a starting group in excess of 320 ppl.
Stats on our group:
Everyone has used NYG, HOU, ATL, GB, DEN
5 ppl have used SEA; 13 have used SF; 2 have used TB; 0 have used IND; 0 have used CLE; 7 have used PIT
Teams I've used: HOU, SD, CHI, DEN, NYG, ATL, MIN, GB, BALT, SF, NE, CIN, DAL
My original thought process was to use SEA this week, but realistically I can expect a fair majority taking them this week. So I am now considering TB, CLE, or IND.
Given who I have used so far, which is my best option this week? Next week is looking rough, but I'll deal with it if I get there.
Thanks!
I think those are the right three to be considering. I wouldn't take the Colts; seems like they are about as popular as CLE (if not more), and are less likely to win.
DeleteYou can probably argue that one either way; it seems like a bunch of the people who have already used SEA/DEN/SF will take TB, and probably some of the people who have only used DEN/SF, too. So I'd probably take the Browns.
Thanks Vegas, would the fact that Roethlisberger is playing, and the money line at Pinny is down to 1.27 (CLE at 1.357), would I be better to take PITT?
DeleteReally depends on how popular you think PIT will be. The Steelers are probably a better pick this week, but it looks like they'll be big favorites in Week 17 as well.
DeleteHi, thanks for your post. I'm one of only 3 left, the other two survivors both have Seattle and Tampa available; I do not. Of the top selections from your post, the only 3 I have to choose from are Indianapolis, Cleveland or Pittsburgh. I understand you like Cleveland more than the Colts, but if I'm down to Cleveland or Pittsburgh and have to submit today, what do you think? I am aware of the uncertainty with Roethlisberger and the Pittsburgh line. I would think the other two guys both take Seattle. Thank you.
ReplyDeleteBrowns.
DeleteFrom Lat weeK:
ReplyDeleteTim Mardon 11/29/12 11:17 AM
He picked Detroit. Tough choice, Bills or Lions.
Vegas Watch 11/29/12 11:19 AM
I'd take the Bills but continue to monitor those two lines.
Thanks for the advice all season. I won the pool. You were a great help.
This comment has been removed by the author.
ReplyDeleteHey Vw,
ReplyDeletei have 2 out of 39 this week. we must pick two teams each, howe do you like seattle and cinncinatti. and detroit and pittsburgh