Wednesday, December 5, 2012
2012 NFL Survivor: Week 14
SF: L, 16-13
BUF: W, 34-18
DAL: W, 38-33
NE: W, 23-16
CHI: L, 23-17
BAL: L, 23-20
DEN: W, 31-23
NYJ: W, 7-6
GB: W, 23-14
CAR: L, 27-21
DET: L, 35-33
The PBP of the fourth quarter of the Lions game is painful; that was quite a collapse. That line kept getting bet up after I posted last week (SR closed at 7.45); sometimes there's just not much you can do. We lost 34.2% of OFP entries in Week 13, bringing us down to 2.7% of where we started.
Teams used: Eagles, Bengals, Cowboys, Texans, Ravens, Bucs, Giants, Bears, Packers, Patriots, Falcons, Titans, Lions.
This week's consensus numbers from OFP and Yahoo!:
Seattle (vs. Arizona; Safety Rating 8.35)
Big favorites, but far too popular in a week with an unusually high number of decent options (which is partially caused by so many people taking SEA).
San Francisco (vs. Miami; SR 8.22)
The 49ers keep losing or tying as big favorites, so they're more popular here than I'd expected (although I still doubt they're this popular in normal full-season leagues). Either way, they are big favorites and 11% in OFP/Yahoo isn't that bad. The only other time to use them would be in Week 17 (vs. Arizona); the concern there is that San Francisco will be locked into a playoff spot and won't play everyone.
Tampa Bay (vs. Philadelphia; SR 7.71)
Indianapolis (vs. Tennessee; SR 6.90)
Not big enough favorites.
Denver (at Oakland; SR 8.32)
Saving for Week 16.
Cleveland (vs. Kansas City; SR 7.25)
The Browns are a decent option if they're really this unpopular (which I doubt), but I'd rather take the 49ers here.
Pittsburgh (vs. San Diego; SR N/A)
It sounds like Roethlisberger is probably going to play, but I wouldn't mess around with this one.
Atlanta (at Carolina; SR 6.31)
Not a high enough SR.
This week's pick is the 49ers.