Wednesday, November 28, 2012
2012 NFL Survivor: Week 13
DEN: W, 17-9
CIN: W, 34-10
IND: W, 20-13
NE: W, 49-19
CHI: W, 28-10
SEA: L, 24-21
TEN: L, 24-19
DAL: L, 38-31
ARI: L, 31-17
Can't run good forever. The blog's strong run ends, but hopefully some of you in smaller pools stayed alive with DEN or CIN. Only 6.3% of OFP was knocked out last week, bringing us to 4.0% of where we started.
Teams used: Eagles, Bengals, Cowboys, Texans, Ravens, Bucs, Giants, Bears, Packers, Patriots, Falcons, Titans.
This week's consensus numbers from OFP and Yahoo!:
San Francisco (at St. Louis; Safety Rating 7.50)
I'm not sure what is going on with the Yahoo! numbers at this point; there's just no way that many people are taking SF, considering how many have already used them. Regardless, their SR isn't all that high this week, and I still want to save them for next week (home vs. MIA).
Buffalo (vs. Jacksonville; SR 6.94)
The Bills are quite obvious this week, as almost any team would be when hosting the Jaguars. And they will likely be even more popular than the table above suggest, since so few people have taken them. Their SR is decent, but not much higher than comparable options which will be way less popular.
Dallas (vs. Philadelphia; SR 8.29)
Already used. Good option though, as most have already taken them and the Eagles are quite a mess at this point.
New England (at Miami; SR 7.66)
Already used. Could be a solid option in pools with only a few entries remaining.
Chicago (vs. Seattle; SR 6.38)
Already used. Can't see much of a reason to take them here.
Baltimore (vs. Pittsburgh; SR N/A)
Already used. May be a good option if Roethlisberger doesn't play (currently listed as Questionable).
Denver (vs. Tampa Bay; SR 7.53)
As usual, the Broncos are a strong option. As usual, I'm going to hold off on taking them, as their SR isn't anything unusual and I still want to save them for Week 16 vs. the Browns.
NY Jets (vs. Arizona; SR 6.69)
This is ugly, but the Jets have a decent SR, no future value, and won't be very popular. I'd take them here if not for an even uglier option below.
Green Bay (vs. Minnesota; SR 7.84)
Already used. If you still have them, this may be a good time to use the Packers, depending on your Week 16 options.
Carolina (at Kansas City; SR 5.85)
SR not high enough.
Detroit (vs. Indianapolis; SR 6.71)
Finally, we get to the Lions, the 11th most popular pick this week. And not surprisingly so, as a 4-7 team going up against a 7-4 powerhouse doesn't quite seem like a lock. But the Colts continue to not actually be very good, and the Lions' record underrates them (to use an overly simple metric, Detroit actually has a superior point differential).
Obviously Detroit is far from a lock, but I think taking the Lions here allows me to save very strong picks for Week 14 (San Francisco) and Week 16 (Denver). This week's pick is Detroit.