This is the best sign yet for a strong bounceback year from PECOTA. In 2005-2008, PECOTA always had one of the lowest standard deviations of the predictions I have collected. But last year BP's projection system dropped to the lower half of this list, even behind some human predictions. This is only one metric, but in this sense it appears that whatever was ailing PECOTA last year has been fixed.
Here's how far each set of projections deviates from the average of all the predictions, for each team:
Just like last year, the over/unders top the list rather easily, which makes sense; if any of the totals were way "off", they'd be bet to a more reasonable number. The O/U that was the furthest from the consensus was Houston's; Pinnacle had the Astros at 73.5, while the average was 69.2. Sheehan had the lowest prediction at 64 wins, and somewhat surprisingly (to the point I just went back to double-check) PECOTA has Houston going 78-84.
ZiPS always comes up with some interesting projections, but doesn't have anything that looks totally nuts. Szymborski's system is very low on the White Sox (76.4, vs. an average of 81.9) and the Marlins (74.5, vs. 79.9). It's the humans that have predictions that really stand out. Sheehan has the Royals winning 60 games, and Bukiet pegged the Indians at 67 wins.
Yahoo's Henson is all over the place as usual, projecting the Rangers to win fewer games (75) than the Blue Jays (77). Part of the reason for PECOTA's very low standard deviation is actually some unconventional predictions, with 77 victories for the Royals, 90 for the Yankees and the aforementioned Astros projection keeping their numbers tightly packed.