Thursday, November 29, 2007

Dolphins: Winless, Yet Favored?

This afternoon fellow EC member Simon pointed out that the Dolphins are actually favored by 1 this week against the Jets. This is somewhat amazing, as Miami is currently 0-11. Simon wondered if such a poor team had ever been favored before, which I thought was an interesting question.

Sunday Strategy only has lines since 2000, so we're limited by that. Over the last seven years there have been 12 teams that have failed to win more than three games:

Rough decade for Lions fans.

Anyway, there were six instances in which one of these teams was favored in one of their last five games. These didn't go very well:

I thought it was pretty amazing that the 2-13 Texans were favored on the road in '05. The 49ers were pretty bad as well (3-12 at that point), but 4.5 points worse than Houston? That's pretty impressive. I guess, despite their record, people didn't think the Texans were that bad, since they were favored in two of their last three games.

The rest of these teams were at home, which is not exactly surprising. As a group, these six teams lost by an average score of 22-13. The Bills managed to win, but even they didn't cover the spread.

What does this all mean? Well, nothing, really. Each of these teams had at least one win under their belt, which is more than we can say for Miami. But the Dolphins aren't that bad; six of their 11 losses have come by just three points.

Interestingly, the action has been pretty even on both sides for Sunday's showdown. I'll be rooting for the Dolphins Jets, if only because I'm hoping for a 14-0 Pats vs. 0-14 Dolphins showdown in Week 15. You thought the Eagles line was ridiculous? That one could approach four TDs on some sites.


  1. "I'll be rooting for the Dolphins, if only because I'm hoping for a 14-0 Pats vs. 0-14 Dolphins showdown in Week 15."

    Did you mean to say you'll be rooting for the Texans in hopes of a 14-0 v. 0-14 showdown? Because if that's the case, I'm with you all the way.

  2. Well we're both really making a mess of a simple situation, aren't we Richard.

    I didn't mean to say the Dolphins or the Texans. I meant to say the Jets.