There are few things more frustrating than rooting for a team with a bad closer. As an Indians fan who has suffered through Bob Wickman and Joe Borowski for the last seven years, I have experienced this first hand.But it's not just the incompetence of the Indians' closers that bothers me. The "save" stat is probably the single dumbest in baseball. Protecting a one run lead is treated the same as coming in with a three run lead and getting an out. And if you come in with a four run lead and, I don't know, give up six runs? Doesn't count as a blown save.
Because of this, a closer's save percentage one year isn't a very good predictor of what it will be the next year. Not surprisingly, you have to dig a little deeper to successfully forecast save percentage- walk rate and strikeout rate are the most useful stats in doing this. So I thought I'd 'take a look at which closers teams should be comfortable with heading into the playoffs, and which ones are likely to be remembered in this fashion.
First Tier: The Elite
There aren't any surprises among the AL pitchers on this list, I think those three are universally considered to be top notch closers. And Wagner falls into that same group. But Saito and Cordero? I found that somewhat surprising.
Cordero has been a completely different pitcher this year. From 2003-2006, his K/BB ratio was 2.52 (298.2 IP, 332 K, 132 BB). But this year, it has jumped to 4.06 (55.2 IP, 73 K, 18 BB). I don't know how much of that is due to pitching in the NL, but I would think that that's been a factor.
Saito has been dominant for almost two years now, with 178 Ks and just 33 walks in 135.1 IP over the last couple years. He should get more national attention as one of the best relievers in the game.
Second Tier: Solid
K-Rod isn't part of the first group because his walk rate, which was around the league average last year, has increased by 1.02 BB/9 this year, which is a problem. He's been unlucky this year though, with six blown saves despite an ERA of 3.09.
Hoffman has seen his K/9 drop each year since '03, from 11.0 all the way down to 6.5 K/9. He may belong in the top tier anyway- this analysis doesn't give him credit for keeping the ball in the park (only 2 HRs in 50 IP this year).
Isringhausen has been lucky to have only two blown saves this year- his strikeout and walk numbers indicate that he should have blown a couple more.
K-Rod isn't part of the first group because his walk rate, which was around the league average last year, has increased by 1.02 BB/9 this year, which is a problem. He's been unlucky this year though, with six blown saves despite an ERA of 3.09.
Hoffman has seen his K/9 drop each year since '03, from 11.0 all the way down to 6.5 K/9. He may belong in the top tier anyway- this analysis doesn't give him credit for keeping the ball in the park (only 2 HRs in 50 IP this year).
Isringhausen has been lucky to have only two blown saves this year- his strikeout and walk numbers indicate that he should have blown a couple more.
Third Tier: Todd Jones
I'm kind of amazed that Jones continues to be the Tigers' closer. Here are his K rates throughout his career:
That blue line is the average K rate among all pitchers, which is around 6.0 K/9; the average rate among the other twelve closers I looked at is much higher, at 9.9 K/9. In '05 and '06 this was partially offset by his low walk rates (1.6 BB/9), but this year that's spiked to 3.4 K/9.
Pictures: Borowski, Papelbon, Isringhausen. Stats taken from B-R and ESPN, graph from FanGraphs.
That blue line is the average K rate among all pitchers, which is around 6.0 K/9; the average rate among the other twelve closers I looked at is much higher, at 9.9 K/9. In '05 and '06 this was partially offset by his low walk rates (1.6 BB/9), but this year that's spiked to 3.4 K/9.
Pictures: Borowski, Papelbon, Isringhausen. Stats taken from B-R and ESPN, graph from FanGraphs.
Do strikeouts count as two outs or something in September? I wasn't aware tons of K's was a closer prerequisite.
ReplyDeleteIn looking at closers over the last six years, I found that the only things that are particularly useful in predicting future save percentage are BB/9 and K/9. This is true for any month.
ReplyDeleteAlthough this seems weird at first, it actually makes sense. It's pretty widely accepted that the best way to predict a pitcher's future performance is to look at what he can control independent of his fielders- walks, strikeouts, and home runs.
ReplyDeleteThis analysis ignores home runs, because for closers who only pitch about 60 innings per season, that's not a large enough sample to really be meaningful in showing how good they are at preventing the longball.
Nice post, man. Who do you think the best of the elite has been this year? I think Putz, Papelbon and Saito have clearly been the top three. Cordero got off to a great start but has slowed quite a bit in the 2nd half. Meanwhile, Rivera only has 24 saves for the season, which isn't enough for him to be the best.
ReplyDeleteIt's a shame because it seems that only Papelbon's team will make it to October out of those three.
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