VWI Predicted Standings: AL

Last week I introduced the Vegas Watch Index (VWI), creating power rankings for the AL and NL by using betting lines from the past few weeks. I have no taken this analysis one step further, translating each team's VWI into an expected winning percentage.

With this, I am able to project each teams' final record. Baseball Prospectus had three different versions of projected standings (plus graphs). What they do is simlulate the rest of the season a million times, and both see how many games each team wins (on average) and what percentage of the time they make the playoffs.

I have done something similar using my rankings, but am (to this point) unable to calculate the playoff percentages. What I will do, however, is compare my standings to BP's, so we can get an idea of each team's %.

First, the updated VWI (through Sunday's games), with an added column for expected winning percentage.

I am surprised that Cleveland is ahead of Boston. I'm still only drawing from about twenty games of data, so things are still working themselves out. I would expect that two weeks from now the Red Sox are firmly in second.

The Yankees justified their lofty ranking last week, going 6-1, and getting the Red Sox lead under ten. More on the East in the predicted standings breakdown below.

Not a good week for the Twins- not only do the fall two spots, their loss on Saturday may have been the biggest upset of the year. They had everything going for them- at home, against the Nationals, Johan Santana vs. Levale Speigner. The line was (-370), meaning the Twins would be expected to win about 78% of the time- almost unheard of in baseball. Of course, Santana gave up a three run homer to Ryan Zimmerman in the third, and they lost 3-1.

On to the predicted standings. First up, the AL East:

This the thing about having a ten game lead in June- even if the team chasing you is slightly "better", they're still in trouble. VWI isn't as high on the Red Sox as any of the three BP systems, which have their chances of winning the East as 93%, 94%, and 83%, respectively. I would approximate the East percentages as follows: BOS 70%, NYY 28%, Other 2%.

AL Central:

VWI agrees with BP on Cleveland and Detroit, putting the Indians at about 65% to win the division. PECOTA really dislikes the White Sox, predicting them to win just 69 games. I don't think Chicago is particularly good, but that seems a little harsh. I would put the rest of the Central odds as follows: DET 30%, MIN 3%, CHW 2%. Sorry, Kansas City.

AL West:

PECOTA likes the A's a lot more than VWI. VWI has both around .500, and Seattle is a half game ahead right now, so it's pretty much a dead heat. I would guess the Angels' percentage is about 76%, with Seattle and Oakland at 12%.

Feel free to post in the comments section below. If you have any questions, or just want to tell me I'm an idiot, my e-mail is jnwheat@emory.edu.

Back Tuesday with the National League.